Five Years Later

It has been five years since I’ve written anything about the Baltimore Orioles. Five years ago, the Orioles were coming off of a division title, 96 wins, and an American League Championship Series appearance. Yet, there was this feeling of uncertainty as the Orioles were an old organization, trading whatever prospects they had in an effort to win. The problem is that the Orioles tried to straddle the line, never reaching for the big free agent, never making the big trade, instead waiting for the value signings. As they failed to develop top talent, the organization was plugging holes as they came up, rather than developing a long term, sustainable plan. That patchwork continued for two more years, resulting in 81 and 89 win seasons. But, that 2016 season was the last winning season the Orioles would post.

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Five years ago, I wrote about how Matt Wieters taking the $15.8 million qualifying offer was alright, considering the Orioles had few certainties other that Manny Machado. The Orioles were in trouble. Fans knew it. Analysts knew it. They were on borrowed time before that 2016 season. And, it all came crumbling down because they were not an organization that drafted well, developed well, and retained their own talent. They were also an organization that didn’t invest well, choosing to sign Chris Davis to a monster contract rather than make a legitimate run to keep Machado. Short-sighted trades from Duquette, archaic on-field management from Buck Showalter, cheap investment into the development system, and a lack of funding from ownership quickly took the organization into the basement of the American League East.

Five years later, there is still a great deal of uncertainty. But, this has more to do with the world, rather than what the Baltimore Orioles are doing.  Having spent some time getting reacquainted with the Orioles organization, there seems to be a quality plan in place. General Manager Mike Elias has transformed the organization from the most archaic in baseball into one with a quality analytics department, developmental program,  and clear vision. While old-time Orioles like BJ Surhoff didn’t like being fired from the organization, Elias has implemented his vision, much like his mentor in Houston, Jeff Luhnow did when he took over an Astros organization that was as rudderless as the Orioles were just a couple of years ago.

The farm system is now moving up evaluator’s lists. The Orioles are starting to see their logo in a few slots when top 100 prospect lists are released. While Elias’ 2020 draft drew some criticism, it is difficult to argue that the Orioles’ future looks much brighter than it did two years ago, let alone five years ago.

In normal circumstances, the 2020 season would be about the minor league development, rather than the big league product.  But, with the official cancellation of the Minor League season, the Orioles, like every other club, enter this season with so many things to be uncertain about. Five years ago, a 60 game schedule with their management in place would have been a lost season. But, with Elias in the front office, Brandon Hyde actually using analytics and working with the front office, the 2020 Orioles should be able to navigate this season and still make progress. Yes, there is still a level of uncertainty with the Orioles, but there is a legitimate plan and look that really resembles the Houston Astros. Unlike five years ago, there is actually hope of a bright future.

So, the question really becomes, what can the 2020 Orioles do to maximize this highly truncated, highly uncertain season?

Don’t Lose Sight

The only certain thing about this 60 game schedule is that there will be flukes. A batter can get hot for 60 games and put up obscene numbers. A pitcher can put together an incredible run for 10 to 12 starts, which will likely be the maximum any starter will make. Relievers can be used more without fear of a long season. And, teams can get off to incredibly hot starts. While it is highly unlikely that the Orioles contend, one can’t reasonably rule out a hot start when bullpens will be more of a factor. And, while there are better offenses, the Orioles do have some power and some young players who are intriguing.

But, none of that should make Orioles change course. With players needing only to miss 10 games in order for organizations to gain an extra year of control, the Orioles should resist—and will resist—putting their best roster on the field. That best roster includes Ryan Mountcastle, Michael Baumann, Keegan Akin, and maybe Dean Kremer. But, 10 games is well worth the extra year of control, especially since all signs point towards the 2022 Orioles looking like one for the most interesting teams the Orioles have had in quite some time.

Sure, it would be nice to see the best roster on day one. But, in this uncertain season, the only certainty that can be provided is controlling assets. And, if the O’s do get off to a hot start, their best prospects will only help. If, however, the Orioles play to expectations, keeping service time down only helps the long term outlook.

The organization and its fans have to keep that in mind when it comes to player evaluation. The evaluation of the sport is largely based on numbers, but 2020 cannot be based on those numbers.

Prioritize Experience

One important aspect that teams and fans will quickly realize is that statistics will be essentially useless this year. 60 games isn’t quite large enough to get a real read on a player. We will not be able to see how young Major Leaguers like Austin Hays or Anthony Santander can hold up during a 162 game schedule. Once prospects are called up to the Major League roster, their statistics don’t mean much in terms of where they stand in the organization or how they project as a Major Leaguer. Think about it; many teams will be using their bullpens more than ever. Starters will not be able to pitch as deep into games as usual. 30 man rosters definitely dilute a talent pool.  And, the Orioles are facing all East Division opponents who have strong pitching.

So, the Orioles’ focus will be on giving their young players experience. Mountcastle will likely get 45 or so games at the Major League level. That experience will help his 2021 season. Akin will get some starts against Major League lineups. No matter his performance, that experience will help his offseason preparation. Austin Hays will play 50 to 60 games at the Major League level. Anthony Santander will build on his promising 93 game showing of last year. The organization can see the bulk of their players, who seem to be in the 24 to 27 years old range, make a case to be a part of the future. Evaluating that will go beyond typical statistics. Hitters will be evaluated on approach and exit velocities rather than on counting statistics or even on base percentages. Pitching evaluations will go beyond advanced metrics as their sample size will definitely be inconclusive. Velocity, strike percentage, and improvement over the season will be more of the focus.

The young pitchers may just work as tandem starters in order for them to gain that experience. With no possible way of developing any sort of legitimate innings count, exposing them to Major League hitters would be beneficial. What fan wouldn’t want to see a game where Akin starts for three, followed by Baumann for three innings, the bullpen for two, and Hunter Harvey closing out? While the results and statistics may not be great, the experience gained by each young pitcher would definitely be something to build on.

All of this comes down to using 60 games to maximize big league experience. For the Orioles, 2020 isn’t about wins. It isn’t about numbers. It is about seeing improvement from individual players as the season goes on and them building on that experience next year.

Maximize the 60

Elias announced the initial 44 members of the allotted 60 man roster. Like most organizations, the Orioles are leaving spots open so that they can formulate a plan to best maximize a taxi squad, keep some prospects together to workout with the organization, and keep enough Major League ready depth. So, while nearly-ready prospects such as Ryan Mountcastle, Yusniel Diaz, Michael Baumann, and Keegan Akin aren’t on the initial roster, they likely will be added before the end of the month. While no Orioles player has yet to opt out of the 2020 season, Elias must keep spots open in case he needs to sign a free agent as an immediate Major League replacement. It is important to note that it is far easier to add a player to the roster, rather than remove one. If an organization wishes to remove a player from the 60 man roster, the player becomes a free agent. So, flexibility is quite important.

Once there is a clearer picture, Elias is sure to add Uber-prospect Adley Rutschman along with other top organization prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall among others. It is important that Rutschman and the others who are not ticketed for the 2020 Major League club get developmental time. It is equally important that players such as Mountcastle, Baumann, and Akin get their Major League experience. Unlike clubs with expectations to win, the Orioles can truly give their prospects, both legitimate and fringe, Major League competition experience.

Most of this flexibility benefits the development of the young pitching staff. Yes, Mountcastle will get at bats; he would’ve during a normal season anyway. But, much of the Major League-ready offense is already on the big club. So, that part of the roster is largely set. But, the pitching staff can do quite a bit during this 60 game stretch.

Once the season starts, teams are permitted to carry 30 active players for the first two weeks. Then, that number is reduced to 28 for two weeks, followed by the reduction to the 26 man roster. This is where the Elias and Hyde must maximize the organization depth. Most teams will likely carry extra pitchers early, considering that most starters will not be stretched out to pitch more than four or five inning during their first couple of turns. This is something that actually plays quite well into Orioles’ depth. While their rotation is definitely among the worst in baseball, there are enough bullpen arms to piece together innings. Once service times are cleared, the younger pitchers can come up and fill either tandem roles or relief roles. Because the Major League rotation doesn’t have one person viewed as irreplaceable, the Orioles can use openers, they can tandem start, mixing and matching their veteran Major Leaguers with their prospects.

If the Orioles want to maximize the 60 man pool, traditional pitching roles should be lost for the 60 games. Yes, John Means did well last year, but his peripherals are troubling enough to allow him to go back and forth between roles this year. Alex Cobb may be healthy enough to start, but his health and recent performance doesn’t warrant a regular role. And, Wade LeBlanc has always pitched in both roles. With roster flexibility, the Orioles can mix and match their pitchers in order to give the young pitchers experience, utilize their bullpen more, and still allow the veterans to get some work. Without worrying about the marathon of a season, innings totals are irrelevant. If the Orioles want to get a look at some of their young pitching, they can be creative, allow them to work in a variety of situations and roles, and build off of that in the future. Without the pressure of worrying about 162 games, the Orioles have the ability to try new things with their pitching and, most importantly, give their young prospects experience.

Glimpse Into Chris Davis

Yes, Davis has been a disaster since signing his contract. But, after one of the worst seasons in Major League Baseball history, Davis changed his workout routine and put on 25 pounds of muscle. He found success in Spring Training, in the limited 26 plate appearances. Even Davis acknowledged that it was too early, but any sort of sign that perhaps he can be even a league average player again is welcomed. Obviously, the Orioles cannot trade him, but with three years left on his massive deal, they can decide whether or not they have to eat the remaining contract or have someone who can contribute when that 2022 club will be young and exciting. Davis has been nothing but honest about his performance and has contemplated retirement. He is someone to root for. This 60 game season will allow him to, hopefully, put the past two seasons behind him and give the Orioles some much needed production.

Quantity over Quality

While the Orioles’ farm system is infinitely better than it was five years ago, there is still room to improve. While major trades will most likely not happen this year and the Orioles don’t have any major pieces, there is a still a chance that the O’s can get some quantity into their system, like the Astros did at the start of Luhnow’s rebuild. Relievers such as Mychal Givens and Miguel Castro won’t bring back top prospects, but they could bring back some younger hard throwers. There wouldn’t be any “sure things” received in trading their relievers, but younger, cost controlled lottery tickets could help for the 2022 season and beyond. Perhaps, the depth from the infield could yield a young player or two. Again, it isn’t likely that trades will happen, but teams looking for relief help may look to the Orioles.

Five Years Later…

In a sense, the Orioles are no more certain than they were five years ago. But, this time around, the uncertainty is a much better kind to have. There is a long term plan based off a proven model. There are a number of high quality prospects, despite a lack of depth in the system. There are some intriguing young offensive players already on the roster who are in need of Major League experience. The pitching is still as ugly as it was five years ago, but that looks to be changing in the next year or two. The Orioles look to be, finally, heading towards some stability and self-sustainability.

2020’s 60 game sprint will allow the organization to give that experience to its young players. It will allow for creativity since it doesn’t have the rigorous demands of the 162 game monster. There isn’t the pressure to win in a truncated season. It won’t seem like such a long summer if things truly go bad. There is valuable experience to gain without confines of a normal season.

Five years ago, a scenario like this would’ve been a disaster considering the Showalter and Duquette regime. But, the Orioles can make the most of this season in order to continue their organizational makeover. While everything about this season is uncertain, the Orioles have an opportunity to truly develop key players. That certainly is quite a different environment than the one from five years ago.

So, in five years, maybe, just maybe, quite a bit has changed.