The first major sports in the US is returning starting on July 8th when the MLS kicks off its MLS is Back Tournament at the ESPN Wide World of Sports at Disney World Resort in Florida. Having watched soccer in Europe successfully return for almost a month, its clear that sports can be safely brought back into play by following adequate protective measures. So lets see how we got here and what happens next.
Safety Protocols
All teams staff and players underwent two separate tests 24 hours apart. Anyone testing positive was immediately quarantined and not allowed to travel to Orlando. All teams were required to travel to Orlando via private charter flights. Upon arrival in Orlando all personnel were tested again. Once test results were obtained and found to be negative players could then being full training. During training all personnel were tested every other day. Starting next week, personnel will be routinely tested including the day before each match. This is the general approach. If you are interested in the more detailed plans you can read the entire protocols here.
Tournament Format
This tournament will be formatted just like a World Cup. The 26 teams will be split into groups. Each Conference will have three groups of 4 however one Eastern Conference group will have 6 teams. Each team will play three group stage matches with the top three teams from Group A (the 6 team group) and the top two teams from Groups B – F advancing. Additionally the next 3 highest ranked teams from the Group Stage (based on total points accumulated) will also advance. The Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semi-finals, and Final of course will all be single elimination. All group stage matches will be held at 9am, 8:30 pm, and 10:30 pm (EDT) to avoid the hottest part of the day in Orlando. Still expect the heat and humidity to play a role. Lets just hope we can avoid any hurricanes but then it is 2020……sheesh…..
Now here is where things will deviate from a typical tournament. Usually a tournament is a stand alone event with no affect outside the tournament itself. That isn’t the case here. In fact the tournament has major impacts beyond the tournament. First, each of the 39 Group Stage matches points earned will also count in the 2020 regular season standings! Secondly, the winner of the tournament receives a spot in the 2021 Scotiabank CONCACAF Champions League. So there is plenty to play for here besides just the prestige of winning a major tournament, not to mention the $1.1M prize pool.
Following suit with the European leagues, team game day rosters will be expanded to a maximum of 23 players and up to 5 substitutions will be allowed each match with 3 opportunities during the game to make those substitutions. Note that any subs made at half time are not counted as one of these 3. The point of limiting the number of times subs can be made is to prevent teams from slowly stopping the game 5 times to kill off any comeback efforts by their opponents. One final change to most tournaments is that any knockout stage matches tied at the end of regulation will not play extra time. They will go directly to penalty kicks.You can read more here if you would like to see the full tournament rules and structure.
Okay enough background lets look at the 6 groups and what to expect over the month of play.
Eastern Conference
Group A
Orlando City FC, InterMiami CF, NYCFC, Philadelphia Union, Chicago Fire, and Nashville SC. Note that not only has Nashville been placed into the Eastern Conference for this tournament, they have been moved to that conference for the rest of this season.
The odd ball group, the one with 6 teams. What that means is the a team can get really lucky or really unlucky with their draw of matches. The clear favorites to advance out of this group are the Union and NYCFC. The Union have been on a clear path of improvement for several years and are poised to make it payoff this season. And it didn’t hurt their chances that they got a great draw getting the two expansion teams in their three matches. They do have to go head to head with NYFC and that may be the key match in the group. As for NYCFC, they have one of the best defenses in the conference and it always helps at tournament time to have a strong defense especially after such a significant time since actual matches were last played. Third place could fall to the “home” team. While its not hardly the same as being at home, Orlando players will be very familiar with the playing conditions and the heat and humidity may affect them less than some others.
So look for the Union, NYCFC, and Orlando in that order.
Group C
Toronto FC, New England Revolution, Montreal Impact, D.C. United
Toronto is the favorite here and maybe a clear favorite. They have the talent and the experience to win when it counts (well unless it get to penalties). The biggest issue they have historically faced is the injury bug. Jozy Altidore is always a step away from a leg injury and both MIchael Bradley and Pablo Piatte are coming off injuries. And superpick Achara who was the hero in match 2 has just torn his ACL in training and is done for the season. Still they should be in the hunt for the title. Interestingly, there is a case be made for each of the other three teams to advance. They all have some things going their way and some clear weaknesses. NE looked very good in the early season but hard to draw much from a couple of matches. The Impact have identified as a bunker and counter team and in short stretches like a tournament, a few lucky bounces and who knows. But when in doubt go with defense and especially a team that has a keeper who has the ability to go on a heater. D.C.’s Bill Hamid is one such keeper. Day in and day out he is a seviceable if not mistake prone keeper. But at times he goes on a run.
I like Toronto here and look at NE for second. But if Hamid gets hot then things could change in a hurry.
Group E
Atlanta United, FC Cincinnati, NY Red Bulls, Columbus Crew SC
How can anyone not start with Atlanta as the favorite? Simple. Josef Martinez is out. Yes they have plenty of other solid players but their play the last several years has totally revolved around Martinez. They still have a solid chance to advance but they probably won’t win the group. I’ll give that nod to the Crew. They know who they are. They play as a unit (critical in short stretches like a tournament) and they are as solid a starting 11 as any team in the league. They don’t have some star power but they don’t have any weaknesses either. The Red Bulls are one odd team. For the better part of 2 seasons they come out the first 30 minutes and just trash their opponents. The middle 30 they kind of look middling. And the final 30 they look terrible. So perhaps this format will help them. Go like heck the first 30 and get a lead. Then use all five of their subs around half time so the first 30 minutes of the second half looks like the first 30 minutes of the game. Then try and hold on the last 30 minutes. Not way to play match by match but in a tournament maybe this could work. Cincinnati get to play their 3 matches and go home.will
Look for Columbus and Atlanta to move on.
Western Conference
Group B
Seattle Sounders, FC Dallas, Vancouver Whitecaps, San Jose Earthquakes
No question the reigning Cup champion Sounders are the favorite. They are deep and talented across the board. They also have the second best winger in the league in Jordan Morris. Morris had a stellar 2019 season and if he performs to that level in this tournament, they could go a long ways. Next in line is Dallas, They have probably the best academy program in the league and continue to crank out top flight players. The problem for Dallas is that they have 6 players that have recently tested positive and are in isolation. Now we don’t know which 6 players but 6 is a big number even if its all bench and role players. The Quakes are certainly in the mix. Their fast pressing style can create havoc for opposing defenses and in a tournament that can lead to good outcomes. The problem for them is that they were the last team to get approval to start training at their facilities. It remains to be seen how that will impact their fitness and ability to play their style. If they can’t press they will be in trouble. Sitting back is just not in their makeup. Then their is the Whitecaps. Only Cincinnati scored fewer goals last season. Look for them to return to Canada after the Group Stage.
Seattle will advance and likely as the group winners. I’d pick Dallas to take the second spot but don’t wager on them until we learn just which players they will miss.
Group D
Real Salt Lake, Sporting KC, Colorado Rapids, Minnesota United
This is a pretty strong group. Two top flight teams in United and Sporting and two decent teams in Real and the Rapids. While anyone of these four could advance the favorites will be Sporting and United. Yes Sporting had a disappointing season in 2019 but lets call that an aberration. They will be a tough team to crack defensively with a back line lead by Matt Besler. And they have a number of players who can score in Alan Pulido, Johnny Russel, and Gerso Ferandes. United was probably the best team in the league over the first two weeks of the season prior to the shutdown. And Ike Opara was leading the way and simply playing great. But bad news for United fans. Opara has just announced he is still training at home for a pre existing condition and will not be playing in the tournament. The Rapids plan will be simple. Do what they do best and that is attacking set pieces. This tournament will likely be like early season play and that means tired legs. Tired players tend to give up fouls and that is not what you want to do against Colorado. They have an incredibly dangerous set piece attach, in fact, it may be the most dangerous set piece team ever seen in the MLS. Jack Price will take the kicks looking to find the head of Kei Kamara. If they get their chances they will find the net. Then there is Real. Real has had a fine team in recent years but it was also an aging one. And unfortunately they haven’t really figured out things with their new players. Until they see how the pieces fit they will likely struggle and a short window like a tournament is not conducive to getting things figured out.
Look for Sporting to advance and United and the Rapids to battle for the second spot. I like United but not sure they can replace the loss of Opara.
Group F
LAFC, LA Galaxy, Houston Dynamo, Portland Timbers
Simply put LAFC, is the best team in the league lead by the best player in the league in Carlos Vela. So they are the pre-tournament favorites and nobody should be surprised if they are lifting the trophy on August 11th. But and its a big but. Vela’s wife is pregnant and reports are saying he likely isn’t going to play. Apparently he has not announced his decision but its not looking good for LAFC fans. You just don’t replace his scoring ability (57 goals i 72 MLS matches). They are still a solid team and can make a run without him but they drop from favorites to maybes real quick. The situation falls right into the lap of Portland. Out of shape teams and team that has no qualms about sitting back in a bunker. Portland loves to bunker knowing they have a couple of players who can quickly create chances on a counter (Diego Valeri and Sebastian Blanco). If Vela does miss this then Portland may be the group favorites. The problem with both the Galaxy and Dynamo’s are they that have significant weaknesses. The Galaxy have a solid core in Chicharito, Cristian Pavon, and Sebastian Lleget. The problem is that they haven’t figured out a way to get the ball to Chicharito near often enough. Dynamos problem isn’t in scoring but in defense. Tough to win much in a tournament when you are hoping to eke out 4-3 wins.
Even with out Vela look for LAFC and Portland to advance.
July 8th can’t get here quick enough. If you are like me you are starved for some live sports. You can only watch reruns of “best games of blah blah blah” so many times. So sit back and get ready for some much needed respite. And every single match of the 54 game tournament will be aired. Here’s the complete television listing.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.