The dominoes are beginning to tumble on the 2020 College Football season. On July 8th the Ivy League announced it would not play any fall sports until at least 2021. While that may appear to have had no significant impact on major college football, recall that the Ivy League was the canary in the coal mine back in March, suspending all of its spring sports two days before Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19 and triggered a shutdown of all sporting events in the US. Sure enough, less than 24 hours after the Ivy League decision, the Big Ten announced it would cancel all non-conference fall sporting events and proceed with a Big Ten only season. For now.
No other Power Five conferences have jumped on board as of this writing, but the Pac-12 is widely expected to make a similar announcement soon, while the others appear to be contemplating their path forward in the wake of the Big Ten’s surprise decision. [NOTE: Just two hours after this article was published, the Pac-12 made it official]
Add to that the news that several programs, including Playoff hopeful Ohio State, have shut down their offseason workouts due to large numbers of players testing positive, and the momentum seems to be building towards a postponement of the CFB season until 2021. There should be plenty of time to focus on where we are ultimately headed this season in the days and weeks ahead, which I personally think will lead to full postponement until 2021 in hopes of more favorable conditions to hold sporting events (and Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren definitely alluded that could be the next step). But to focus on the here-and-now, it’s worth pondering what a college football season entirely consisting of in-conference-only matchups might look like. So here goes.
The first question that arises when you subtract 3-4 non-conference games from each team’s schedule is probably whether or not you decide to make them up with extra conference games. A case could be made for both sides. Adding new conference games to get to 12 (or at least closer to it) for every team obviously goes a long way in restoring lost revenues – which, make no mistake, is a HUGE consideration here. The case against adding games is that having more empty weeks in your schedule gives conferences a lot more flexibility to get 8-9 games played in what will be a very touch-and-go situation this autumn. It’s a difficult choice, and the Big Ten has not provided many details as to how they plan to approach it yet (though rumor has emerged of them going with a 10-game conference schedule played over the 13 Saturdays this fall).
Competition-wise, the FBS-wide elimination of non-conference games would have an impact on the overall integrity of the season, but how much so is very much open for debate. Conferences like the Big Ten and SEC are widely viewed as being the strongest headed into this season. With no inter-conference matchups as a measuring stick to change anyone’s mind, it’s probably a safe assumption that the top teams in those two conferences have an inside-track to a Playoff berth (which as of this moment does not plan to change the criteria for selecting its four participants). This would bode very well for the likes of Ohio State, Alabama, Wisconsin, Georgia, LSU and Penn State, the #2 – #7 teams, respectively, in ESPN’s Power Index. Whichever of those teams wins their two respective conferences would seemingly have a Playoff spot locked-in. And it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch if a one-loss team among that group that didn’t win their conference made the Playoff as well.
Schools from other, less-competitive Power Five conferences (that being the perception, at least) could have a tougher road ahead to impress the committee. Oregon is currently #8 in ESPN’s FPI. They will miss out on a golden opportunity to lay the groundwork for a Playoff berth with the cancellation of their Sept. 12 home game against the Buckeyes. Their best matchup of the season as of now would be #13 USC, an enigma of a team if there is one, who themselves will miss out on a season-opener measuring stick against Alabama. In the Big XII, Oklahoma and Texas sit at #11 and #12 respectively. The Red River Rivalry, which is still on despite the cancellation of the Texas State Fair traditionally held in conjunction with it, might be the only opportunity for each to make their statement. Then there’s Clemson. They are currently #1 on ESPN’s FPI. Based on those rankings, the ACC is once again very weak once you get past the Tigers, with VA Tech at #18 being the next highest team. The Tigers would also presumably be losing out on their marquee matchup of the season at Notre Dame Nov 11 (more on that in just a moment) in a true conference only-season. That obviously means Clemson cannot afford a single slip if they are to make their sixth straight Playoff appearance.
Back to Notre Dame…for this season only it’s conceivable they might actually, and happily, play what amounts to a conference schedule. They will need opponents with three games (Wisconsin, Stanford and USC) already officially removed, and the ACC wouldn’t leave one of their partners out in the cold, so I’d expect the Irish to play more than just their usual 5-games a season against ACC foes (and maybe even be eligible to play in the conference championship game, assuming there is one). It just makes too much sense not to happen. Other independents like BYU and Army might hope to secure a similar arrangement by latching on with a G5 conference to get enough games (like the Mountain West and AAC respectively). Or they could cobble together a temporary “conference” with the remaining independents; Liberty, New Mexico St, UConn and UMass.
Whatever the ultimate result, there are going to be a lot of moving pieces and near-daily pivots to try and get in a college football season in 2020 (or 2021, which at this point seems more likely). Unlike professional sports leagues, and even other college sports where the NCAA has more direct governance, college football has a decentralized, often chaotic structure that complicates getting everyone on the same page. But like everything else in Pandemic life, the coronavirus itself has a way of dictating everyone’s path forward, and it currently answers to no one.
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.