Entering the 2020 season, the Baltimore Orioles bullpen sat at the top of my list among intriguing storylines I was genuinely excited about.
The outfield was a close second, but DJ Stewart’s horrendous start to the year and removal from the active roster, and the notable absence of prospect Ryan Mountcastle, leave me without much to watch at this point. That is to say, I’m fully confident in Austin Hays and his ability to stick in center and in Anthony Santander developing into a really good fourth outfielder option on a winning ballclub.
Outside of John Means, there just isn’t much else that does it for me on this roster. However, there is one thing that keeps me watching late in games after I’ve already yelled at my TV a hundred times over fundamental mistakes, terrible umpiring, and the insistent inability of Scott Garceau to pronounce anyone’s name right.
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It’s the Orioles bullpen. Yes, that same bullpen that resulted in meltdown after meltdown in 2019. Even without the electric Hunter Harvey competing to take over the closing duties and Dillon Tate working his first full season as a reliever after a promising 2019, the Orioles bullpen has been really good.
Just how bad was the bullpen in 2019? Their combined 0.4 fWAR ranked 28th among major league clubs, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies (0.2) and Miami Marlins (-2.2). Their 5.79 ERA led the major leagues, as did their 1.73 HR/9 IP rate and .268 batting average against. Strikeouts were a rarity at 21.3%, good for 29th in baseball.
Fast forward to 2020 and while there have been a few moments leading to terrifying flashbacks and deep breaths to remind us to breathe during stressful late-situations, the overall production from the Baltimore Orioles bullpen has been really good.
Overall, the Orioles bullpen ranks fourth in the majors in combined fWAR at 1.1. That’s more than double last year’s mark! This operation could fall apart at any moment, but what if we’re finally seeing a few young arms develop into the type of pitchers Orioles fans have been waiting on for years? I know, relievers are volatile and Orioles fans have been scorned time and time again, but….what if?
As of August 9th, Orioles relievers own a 3.77 ERA and a FIP nearly a full lower at 2.90 (6th best in baseball). They are allowing very few home runs after leading the league last year and have produced the highest groundball rates of any relief corps in the majors.
Leading the way has been two of the more electric relievers in the game in Tanner Scott and Miguel Castro.
Castro’s 0.4 fWAR ranks second in baseball among all qualified relievers and already matches his total from 2019. Through 7.1 innings, he’s allowed no runs on four hits while walking two and striking out ten.
His sinker is averaging 98 mph and the average velocity on his changeup has jumped from 90.6 mph to 92.3 mph, which is harder than three Orioles starters’ fastball velocity (Wojciechowski, Milone, and LeBlanc).
Both pitches have been effective, but his slider has been especially lethal early on in 2020. Before the season started, I highlighted this particular pitch as one we needed to see more of. We have seen more of it, but opponents apparently have not picked it up very well. No one has recorded a hit off Castro’s slider while it’s produced an average launch angle of -32 degrees and a 46% whiff rate. That will do.
As for Scott, the electric lefty has also shown signs of possibly developing into the type of reliever we were all hoping for since his early days in the system. Scott has allowed just two hits across 4.1 innings, striking out six and holding a 0.92 WHIP. Like Castro, Scott is generating more movement on his pitches and the result has been plenty of weak contact and an average launch angle of -8 degrees on batted balls.
The swing and miss hasn’t quite been there and hitters are being very patient with Scott, waiting for him to throw a strike in the zone, but the stuff has improved and he hasn’t been afraid to attack hitters and prove his stuff can get major league hitters out. So far, so good. If Scott can continue to limit his walks and generate more swings and misses, the Orioles will have quite the late-inning option.
Elsewhere around the bullpen, Shawn Armstrong has continued to be an under-valued bullpen piece, striking out eight and walking one across 6.1 innings without allowing an earned run. Travis Lakins has also been a pleasant surprise, having yet to allow a walk in 7.2 innings and recording a 1.29 FIP across his five outings.
The positive production from players like Lakins (dare I say Tom Eshelman?) are small signs that the player development system is working in Baltimore. If they can turn this bullpen into one of the top bullpens in baseball and get production out of guys like Tommy Milone and others, just imagine what they are doing with talented prospects like Grayson Rodriguez down on the farm.
Could all of this fall apart at any moment and come the end of the season we’re talking about the same old, self-destructive Orioles bullpen? That’s certainly a possibility, but despite having no idea each night if we’re going to get the Orioles who showed up against the Marlins or the Orioles who have made the defending World Series champion Washington Nationals look like the Pittsburgh Pirates (talk about a disaster of a team), I’m going to remain optimistic.
Putting trust into a bullpen full of cast-offs and high-ceiling talents who have imploded time and time again is risky, but it’s 2020 and Mike Yastrzemski has been the league leader in fWAR for the entire season, so why not?
Orioles Analyst
A former high school teacher and coach in the mountains of Virginia, Nick Stevens has been writing about the Baltimore Orioles and their minor league system for five years. When he isn’t at a minor league stadium, he’s enjoying a Wizards game or supporting his alma mater, James Madison University. Co-Host of The Verge.