Questions & Thoughts on the O’s as Spring Ends

As Spring Training ends, and the Baltimore Orioles prepare to begin their 2012 season next Friday, here are some of the questions and thoughts I have.

Question 1: Going into ’11, we polled 19 writers and analysts on their projected record for the O’s. The average pick was 78 wins. The O’s failed to reach those expectations, winning just 69 games. Baltimore has not reached the 70 win plateau since ’06, nor been at or above .500 since ’97. Going into 2012, it appears that most are anticipating around 70 wins for the Birds. If expectations were too high going into ’11, are they now lower than they should be going into ’12?

Thought 1: The most important developments (positively and negatively) that have occurred this Spring, are with the O’s young starters Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, and Zach Britton.

After spending the off-season working out with Brady Anderson, Matusz has seen physical gains and a return to his stuff. He has gone from the outside looking in at the rotation, to a guy that again looks capable of leading the staff.

Arrieta says he is throwing pain-free for the first time as a professional, after having surgery to remove a bone-spur.

Tillman, who also spent the off-season working with Anderson, has also seen physical improvement and a return of his velocity. Most importantly we continue to see comments that the physical improvement is allowing Tillman to repeat his mechanics. When Tillman turns 24 on April 15th, he will likely do so at AAA Norfolk. However, it is clear the O’s are again enthusiastic about his prospects.

Britton, has had it reconfirmed by Dr. James Andrews that his shoulder has no structural damage, which is the good news. However, this past week, Britton received two rounds of platelet rich plasma (PRP) therapy, a procedure that could help heal the inflammation in his left shoulder that has plagued him since August. While there is zero risk or downside to having this procedure; there is little certainty of what it will achieve and how long the process will take. Yesterday, Britton stated he felt ‘really good’, and believes he could be doing light-tossing next week. Right now, a mid-May to early-June return for Britton seems like the best case scenario.

Each of these four pitchers were widely heralded by analysts and 3rd party sites as they ascended towards the Majors. The performance of these pitchers in ’12, is what will primarily determine if this year was a success or failure for the Orioles.

Question 2: In Tsuyoshi Wada and Chen Wei-yen, the O’s have added two lefties to their rotation (or at least as rotation possibilities). Wada (who turned 31 in February) is described as a cerebral, soft-tosser. Last year the Japanese native was 16-5, with a 1.51 era. In his 184.2 ip, he allowed 7 homers, 40 bb’s, with 168 k’s. The 26 year old Chen is known as a power arm, whose velocity dipped in ’11, as he dealt with a leg injury. In ’11, the Taiwanese native was 8-10, with a 2.68 era. In his 164.2 ip, he allowed 138 hits, 9 homers, 31 bb’s, with 94 k’s.


Career Numbers
Wada: 107-61, 3.14 era, 1,444.2 ip, 1,263 hits, 142 hr’s, 395 bb’s, 1,329 k’s
Chen: 36-30, 2.48 era, 631.1 ip, 518 hits, 47 hr’s, 153 bb’s, 500 k’s

Chen has been strong this Spring, and is a lock for the rotation. Wada was dealing with an elbow issue earlier in camp, and will begin in the bullpen. Will Chen compete with another Japanese League import (Darvish) for the AL Rookie of the Year? Will Wada remind us of a lefty-version of Uehara? If the Japan Leagues are essentially AAAA caliber, does it interest you to see how these players transition?

Thought 2: The O’s had a league average offense last year. The primary changes will be moving Chris Davis (1st), Nolan Reimold (LF), and Wilson Betemit (DH) into the everyday lineup. I’ll take the over on these three collectively combining for a .750 OPS and 50 homers. I’m really looking forward to seeing Reimold get everyday at-bats.

Question 3: Wieters finished with 50xbh’s (.450 Slugging) and was lauded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. If you were starting a team – which catchers do you take before him? Your expectations for him in ’12? Wieters is a Free Agent after 2015. As a Catcher, if you were advising him; would you advise him to take an extension into the first year or two of what would be his Free Agency? Do you think the O’s should be approaching him now?

Thought 3: I went into Spring Training believe the O’s would come to a buyout agreement with Brian Roberts. That does not appear likely, but obviously Roberts is still a long ways from making his way back to the field. Until (if) Roberts ever gets back to the lineup, I’d like to see Reimold leadoff. I’d be fine with Markakis in that spot as well. If later in the year, Antonelli has been called-up and replaces Andino at 2nd, he should also receive consideration.

Question 4: Jim Johnson was extremely strong in 2011. In his 91 ip, he allowed 80 hits, 5 homers, 21 bb’s, with 58 k’s. He had a .628 OPS against, with a ridiculous 1.70 G/F. This Spring he has been dealing with back soreness and diminished velocity. If he is healthy at the Trading Deadline, and replicating those numbers; will he command a package similar to what Texas traded away to San Diego last year for Mike Adams?

Thought 4: Reynolds was abysmal at 3^rd last year. The prior two years, he was below average, but ‘livable’ at the position. I’m pleased the O’s are giving him another chance at 3^rd instead of moving him across the diamond. I think if his defense is back to those ’09 and ’10 levels, that Baltimore should be picking up the $11M club option in ’13. Danny Knobler from CBS Sports has reported that the O’s are shopping Reynolds. I think he has more value to the O’s, than he is likely to bring back in a trade.

Question 5: “In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones is a below average CF. In ’11, Jones had a Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .339, and Isolated Power (ISO) was .185. For the 2nd consecutive year, he played in 149+ games. For the 3rd consecutive year his OPS fell within the range of .767 to .792. He finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season. Jones avoided arbitration for this year with a 1 year $6.15M contract. Most agree he can be a piece of a good team, but not a franchise player.

If the O’s want to extend him, what type of contract do you think would be fair? If he were to be traded, he has to bring back players who can be under long-term team control. What type of trade could you see as fair?

Question 5a: Can Jones have a Jacoby Ellsbury jump?

Last year Jacoby Ellsbury finished 2nd in the American League MVP voting. He was named the Comeback POY, won a Gold Glove, and the Silver Slugger. For the year, Ellsbury posted a .928 OPS, with 83 xbh’s. He had 212 hits, walked 58 times, and had 39 steals.

This was coming off of a injury riddled 2010 where Ellsbury played in just 18 games.
In 2009, Ellsbury had a .770 OPS in 624 ab’s, with 45 xbh’s. He had 188 hits, walked 49 times, and had 70 steals.

As we said above, Jones finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. (.785 OPS in 567 ab’s, with 53 xbh’s. He had 159 hits, walked 29 times, and had 12 steals.)

The left-handed hitting Ellsbury was born 9/11/83.
The right-handed hitting Jones was born 8/1/85.

Thought 5: There was a logical argument to be made for trading Hardy, but I am glad he was extended. It is fair to wonder if Hardy will again have a significant injury; however, in the 3years he has played 129+ games (’07, ’08, and ’11) his slugging has been above .463 in each of those seasons. If he again plays 129+ games, I believe he will come close to replicating his numbers last year, and will be the best SS in the AL East.

Question 6: Nick Johnson’s last productive year was 2009 (.831 OPS, 34 xbh’s, 457 ab’s). That was followed by 24 games in the bigs in ’10, and not reaching the Majors in ’11 (.648 OPS in 184 ab’s at AAA Columbus.) If healthy, do you see him producing? Do you think he makes more sense for this roster than Antonelli? If you want Johnson on the roster, and believe he will perform; do you want Johnson at 1st, Davis at DH, and Betemit as a reserve?

Thought 6: As Spring Training prepares to end, I am looking at the O’s roster as:

Matusz, Chen, Arrieta, Hammel, Hunter (Order TBD)
Johnson, Lindstrom, Gregg, Strop, Ayala, Wada, and 1 of 3 out of Simon, Patton, Eveland (2 of these 3 if Gregg is traded.)

Tillman, Bergesen, O’Day, Berken, and Antonelli, to AAA.
Britton, Tegarden, and Roberts to the DL.

Markakis RF
Reimold LF
Jones CF
Wieters C
Reynolds 3rd
Hardy SS
Davis 1st
Betemit DH
Andino 2nd

Paulino, Chavez, Johnson, Flaherty

I think it is pretty good everyday lineup, and a bench of Chavez, Johnson, and Flaherty is useful. I think the rotation can be anywhere from wretched to decent. What happens there will clearly tell the tale of what happens this season. The bullpen seems to have some issues as the year begins. Johnson’s health is a bit of a question. Lindstrom throws hard, but does not appear to get a lot of movement. All-in-all though, the bullpen will be as good as the rotation in-front of them.

It would be pretty shocking to me if the O’s did not fall somewhere between 68 and 81 wins. To dream of a .500 season, Matusz and Arrieta have to be good throughout, and Britton has to get back to the rotation (and perform) sooner than later.

My prediction is 74-88.