25 plausibly realistic positives for the O’s in 2012

Most people are anticipating about 70 wins for the Orioles in 2012.  I’m slightly more optimistic than most, with my 74-88 projection. Baltimore has not reached the 70 win plateau since ’06, nor been at or above .500 since ’97. Due to that, it is understandable that there is not an abundance of good vibes around Charm City as the O’s prepare to begin their season this Friday.

I could feed further into that, and post a list equally as long (or longer) of plausible things that could go wrong in 2012. Who wants to read that though? If the O’s fall apart again, there is plenty of time during the season to complain about what you are seeing between the lines, and your problems with the leadership within in the Warehouse.

A start of a new season represents a clean slate, and another chance at new beginnings. If the results of the past 14 years have beat you down completely, you are not alone. What I suggest, is that let yourself go into Opening Day, thinking of the things that could realistically go right during this year.

I’ve put together a list of 25 positive things that could plausibly happen this year. I’m certainly not suggesting they will all happen. I’m suggesting, with varying percentages of chance, that they each individually could.

1) Brian Matusz could find middle ground between his strong performance to end 2010, and his dismal 2011.  Likely-hood: 90%
1a) Matusz could end the year reaching his ceiling as a strong #2 starter. Likely-hood: 20%

2) Pitching without pain for the first time as a professional, Jake Arrieta could finish the year as a league average 3rd starter. Likely-hood: 66%

3) Zach Britton continues to feel good after receiving the Platelet Rich Plasma injections, begins his light-tossing this week, and rejoins the O’s in mid-May / early June.  Likely-hood: 60%

4) Mark Reynolds defense rebounds to his ’09 (-7.4 UZR/150), ’10 2.5 UZR/150 levels, instead of staying at his amazingly bad ’11 (-30.3 UZR/150) level. Basically he goes back to being below average at 3rd, instead of simply atrocious. If that happens, he again becomes a valuable player.  Likely-hood: 50%

5) In ’11, Matt Wieters had a 1.124 OPS vs. LHP, and a .665 OPS vs. RHP.
In ’10, he had a .564 OPS vs. LHP, and a .741 OPS vs. RHP.
In ’09, he had a .671 OPS vs. LHP, and a .804 OPS vs. RHP.

In 2012, Wieters makes pitchers pay from both sides of the plate, and finishes with an OPS at (or above) .850. Likely-hood: 40%

6) Building off of his 11 2nd half steals last year, Robert Andino swipes 20+ bags. Likely-hood: 50%
6a) Andino finishes with an OBP% above .327. Likely-hood: 30%

7) With injuries behind him, and with the opportunity of everyday at-bats; Chris Davis produces a .750 OPS with 20+ homers. Likely-hood: 50%

8) Following a Kevin Youkilis career path (Youkilis became an everyday player in ’06 at age 27), Nolan Reimold firmly establishes himself as an everyday player at age 28. Likely-hood: 66%

9) Cal Ripken, Jr. followed his 1983 MVP season (.888 OPS), with a .884 OPS in ’84. During ’85 through ’90, his OPS ranged from .718 to .816 before his ’91 MVP season (.940). After a .897 OPS in ’08, Markakis has had an OPS ranging between .756 and .805 the three previous years. In ’12, Markakis approaches (within 25 points) his ’08 levels. Likely-hood: 25%

10) In his last 599 ab’s, Wilson Betemit has had 21 hr’s, 89 rbi, 42 doubles, and batted .290. As the everyday DH in ’12, Betemit gives the O’s 15 hr’s, 70 rbi, and matches his career OPS (.784). Likely-hood: 30%

11) Brian Roberts returns to the lineup by the All-Star break, and plays 65 games in the 2nd half. His production is around his ’06 (.757 OPS), and ’10 (.745 OPS) levels, with similar defense. Likely-hood: 5%

12) Pitching to all 4 Quadrants (Up, Down, In, Out), Tsuyoshi Wada becomes a very effective relief pitcher, similar to Uehara. The comparison to Uehara is not because Wada is also Japanese, but because even though Wada is a lefty; their styles seem similar. Control pitchers who can get buy with a below average fastball, because they can hit spots, miss bats, and have strong movement. In 1,444.2 innings in Japan, Wada allowed 1,263 hits, 395 bb’s, with 1,329 k’s.  Likely-hood: 60%

13) Jim Johnson stays healthy enough to approximate his 2011 season. He also racks-up saves which artificially ‘raise’ his value, and is traded for a package which value wise is similar to what Texas sent to San Diego last year for Mike Adams.  Likely-hood: 10%

14) The early favorites for the AL Rookie of the Year are Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, and Yoenis Cespedes. You can also find supporters for Jesus Montero, and Mike Trout. Is it presently realistic that Chen Wei-yen elevates his way into that conversation? No. Ending 2012 as a league-average 3rd starter? Certainly possible. Likely-hood: 50%

15) In their organizational talent rankings, Baseball America recently ranked the O’s system 21st overall. With Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Nick Delmonico, Jason Esposito, Parker Bridwell, Robert Bundy, etc all likely to return to the Minors to begin ’13; and with Baltimore adding another top prospect in June Amateur Draft – the O’s end the 2012 season with a system that projects in the Top 10 going into next year.  Likely-hood: 65%

16) Continuing to work with Rick Peterson, Chris Tillman builds off a solid Spring Training and dominates at AAA. He continues to show an ability to repeat his mechanics, and improved velocity and movement. With strong AAA production, he forces his way back to Baltimore; contributing out of the bullpen if the rotation is full. The soon-to-be 24 yr old ends 2012 with Orioles fans, and the organization again believing he is a piece to move forward with. Likely-hood: 60%

17) In 2011, Adam Jones saw his OPS fall within the range of .767 to .792 for the 3rd consecutive year.  Over those three seasons, Jones has had an OPS over .850 in 7 different months. In 2012, Jones’ lows are lower, and his highs are more consistent. He experiences a ‘Jacoby Ellsbury’ jump in power; going from 53 xbh’s last year, to 75 xbh’s this year. Likely-hood: 40%
17a) Jones is offered a 4 year $50M extension at the All-Star break.  Likely-hood: 10%
17b) Jones either accepts the offer, or is traded at the non-waiver deadline. Likely-hood: 5%

18) Out of the Closer’s role, Kevin Gregg returns to what he has always been – a near average (plus or minus) reliever. A guy that is typically durable, that will allow around a hit per IP, with a K per IP, with poor control. Showing slightly more willingness to attack hitters, instead of nibbling on the black; he provides some help. Likely-hood: 15%

19) The O’s were 4th in Majors (3rd in the AL East) with 191 homers in ’11. In ’12, they reach the 200 hr plateau. Likely-hood: 10%
19a) If healthy, the O’s have 6 players in their everyday lineup that finish with 15+ homers. Likely-hood: 75%

20) With Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Hammel, and Hunter the O’s have 5 pitchers who have have each had 10+ win seasons in the Majors.  Chen won 13 year last yr in the Japanese Central League. Wada won 16 in the Japanese Pacific League. I would be surprised – but not shocked – to see Matusz or Arrieta break through with a 15 win season.  Likely-hood: 33%
20a) In 2010, Hunter was 13-4, with a 3.73 era. In 128 innings, he allowed 126 hits, 21 hr’s, 33 bb’s, with 68 k’s. In 2009, Hammel was 10-8, with a 4.33 era.  In 176.2 innings, he allowed 203 hits, 17 hr’s, 42 bb’s, with 133 k’s. In 2012, these two combine for 325 innings, and perform like league average 4th, and 5th starters. Likely-hood: 50%

21) Paulino, Chavez, Johnson, Flaherty (and possibly Teagarden, and Antonelli later) combine to provide a ‘useful’ bench. We could assign a cumulative Wins Above Replacement value for the bench, but I think that is unnecessary here. While useful is vague, I believe you will know it when you see it. My definition would be a bench that is utilized more than just day-game after a night-game crew. Likely-hood: 50%.

22) The new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) will begin July 2nd. When that occurs, there will be a $2.9M International cap for each player. 20-year old Cuban OF Jorge Soler is still attempting to obtain residency in the Dominican Republic. The O’s have scouted Soler, and shown interest. If the O’s are willing to pay (probably at-least a $25M contract), they can effectively add another 1st round talent to the system. If they are willing to pay here, their chances are as good as anyone else. Likely-hood: 2%

23) The Orioles could take a page out of the Ravens book, and pro-actively take steps to improve their communication with the local media (and thus their fans). One way to accomplish this would be with ‘State of the Orioles’ Press Conferences, including Majority Owner Peter Angelos, VP of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette, and Manager Buck Showalter sharing the same stage. If I were the O’s, I would schedule 3 such Press Conferences, with one now at the beginning of the season, one at the All-Star break, and one at year end. I would allow any and all media to attend, and address any question asked. For example, while understanding MASN is owned by the Owners of the Orioles, and not the Orioles themselves; the O’s should be willing to provide clarity on the amount of subscribers there are (I believe around 8 million), and the revenue that is being generated by the network. Is that likely to happen? No, it is not. Can the O’s still take steps to be more transparent, and to address questions from all corners? Yes. Likely-hood: 1%
23a) The Orioles take greater steps to defend their home-field. In the 15 games they figure to have 15,000 (or less) seats sold (and less people in the park), they give away 1000’s of tickets for free (my suggestion would be to Baltimore schools and local Colleges). They get people into the ballpark, buying concessions, and improving the atmosphere for all involved. With the home games vs. the Yankees, Boston, Nationals, Phillies, and Pirates; the O’s reach out to the Ravens and offer free tickets to Ravens season-ticket holders. It would be a good will gesture to Baltimore sports fans who have shown a willingness to pay for seats to a local professional team. It would also again improve the atmosphere at Oriole Park, having countless Baltimore fans in the park who are used to loudly cheering the home-team. It won’t change any talent differential on the field, but it will help the Orioles players not feel like they are playing additional road games. Also, any revenue lost by not selling those tickets in 2012, may be made up in future years by the good will generated with those Ravens fans. Is something like this plausible? Sure. Will it happen? No. What should be realistic is the Orioles taking steps similar to what the Nationals did with their ‘Take Back the Park’ initiative (http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120203&content_id=26559958&vkey=pr_was&c_id=was). Likely-hood: 2%

24) In the 3 years JJ Hardy has played 129+ games (’07, ’08, and ’11) his slugging has been above .463 in each of those seasons. In ’12, he again plays 129+ games and establishes himself as the best SS in the AL East. Likely-hood: 70%

25) The Orioles collectively exceed expectations, with a .500 season still possible when September starts. Likely-hood: 10%

Where do you agree, or disagree? What are some plausibly realistic positives you could see happening for the O’s this year?