Current Thoughts on the Ravens Roster as the NFL Draft Approaches

With the Baltimore Ravens lost the AFC Championship in January, we posted a review of the Ravens roster, and our initial thoughts looking ahead to this coming season.

This post rehashes many of those sentiments, with updates to the roster, as the leadership at the Castle prepares for the 2012 NFL Draft (April 26th-28th).

QB: Flacco, Taylor (2)
Thoughts: I’m intending to write less about Flacco this year. There is no reason for him to be a polarizing figure. Let’s all agree to stick to the facts. He has more wins than any QB ever in this first 4 years, and has now won 5 playoff games. For the 3rd consecutive year, Flacco threw for over 3,600 yards with 20+ TD’s, and 12 or less INT’s. For the first time in his career, his completion percentage was under 60% this past year. Coach Harbaugh is quoted this week as saying, he gets ‘positive vibes’ and believes things are going well with the Ravens negotiations with the Agents for Flacco, and Rice. In January, I would have expected an extension for Flacco to have been done by now. I believe the Mark Sanchez extension with the Jets, hurt the Ravens position with Flacco.

With a year invested in Taylor, it seems unlikely that the Ravens would spend a draft pick on another QB. Flacco has been remarkably durable, starting every game of his career. The law of averages says that has to end at some point. Getting Taylor as much time as possible in the Off-season, Training Camp, and Pre-Season games should be a priority.

RB: Rice, Allen, Berry (3)
FB: Leach (1)
Thoughts: Rice averaged a combined 129.3 yards per game this past year. His yards per carry average  increased from 4.0 last year to 4.7. He is on the short list of best RB’s in the league. As expected by everyone, Baltimore placed the franchise tag on Rice.

It is clear that Rice wants to be here, and that the Ravens want to extend him. I can see a 3 year deal, but if it does not happen this off-season, I think the odds greatly increase that Rice never gets a long-term deal. Without an extension this off-season, I could easily see him being franchised again after next year. Of course, that would not be cheap, as the 2nd year of being franchised is more expensive. (If franchised, the player must be offered a one-year contract for an amount no less than the average of the top five salaries at the player’s position as of a date in April of the current year in which the tag will apply, or 120 percent of the player’s previous year’s salary, whichever is greater.) If Rice is franchised twice, the Ravens may not want to extend Rice at any price.

The problem with extending Rice, is finding a comparable that works for both sides. I imagine that Rice wants a deal similar to what Chris Johnson received (4yrs, $53M, $30M guaranteed), while the Ravens are probably hoping for a DeAngelo Williams type of deal (5yrs, $43M, $21M guaranteed).

Ricky Williams had 108 carries this year, and averaged 4.1 ypc, before unexpectedly stepping away. He made public comments about being interested in playing for San Diego next year. The Ravens would have to trade his rights, for that to happen. Could he be convinced to return to Baltimore if he still has interest in playing? Who knows. Right now, you have to assume he is gone.

Leach had a great year as a punishing blocking FB. After 3 carries in the first 92 games of his career, Leach had 12 carries in ’11. Leach also had 15 receptions, helping as a safety valve. He has two years left on his contract. As valuable as he is to the roster, do the Ravens have to consider taking a FB in the draft, or adding a veteran back-up in FA?

Anthony Allen and Damien Berry will get every opportunity to grab the primary back-up position. I feel pretty good about either one being capable in that capacity. If you lose Rice for any time, I’m not sure I feel comfortable with Allen or Berry having to be utilized as a starter.

There are a few veteran FA’s still available. The Ravens are unlikely to look at adding any FA RB’s prior to August. Might the Ravens use a 3rd to 5th round pick to bring in another option?

WR: Boldin, T. Smith, D. Reed, Doss, L. Williams (5)
Thoughts: Boldin increased his yard per game, and yards after the catch in ’11. After missing the last two regular season games, Boldin had 10 catches and 174 yards in the playoffs.

Smith had an outstanding rookie season (50 catches, 16.8 yards per catch, 5.0 yac). It is important to remember that he did not have the benefit of mini-camps and a full training camp. Having gained the experience from this year, I imagine he will be that much more refined after an off-season of work going into next season.

I went into 2011 expecting Doss to be the Ravens 3rd WR, and an immediate help as a possession receiver. That did not happen. Like Smith, he will be helped by a full off-season.

Reed’s season ended on IR. If he is healthy, he will again get the opportunity to be the KR. However, he has yet to catch a pass in the NFL. The fact that the Ravens were pursuing Ted Ginn, Jr. is some indication of the Ravens concern about Reed (or just a desire to improve).

If you don’t add another veteran, or talent in the Draft; there will be a fair amount of pressure on Doss to raise his game and be ready to perform. I see the Ravens adding a WR in the Draft (especially with KR ability), I’d be surprised if it was before the 3rd round.

TE: Dickson, Pitta (2)
Thoughts: I said before last season that I thought Dickson and Pitta could match, and possibly exceed, Heap’s offensive production from last year. Dickson finished with 54 grabs, for 528 yards. His yard per catch average has dropped from 13.8 in 2010 to 9.8 in 2011. His longest reception was just 25 yards. I think he can be used down the field more, as he runs past LB’s and over Safeties. This whole off-season has to be about improving his hands.

Pitta averaged 10.1 yards on his 40 grabs, and is a much better athlete than I gave him credit for. He had 6 catches in the season final, and 7 catches in the playoffs. He appears to be on the verge of really taking off.

Wilson could also return, but it will be a low priority for the Ravens. If you lose Wilson, you lose your best blocking TE though, and a replacement will be needed at some point.

O-Line: McKinnie, Reid, Birk, Yanda, Oher, Harewood, Boren (7)
Thoughts: Last June, we spoke to Joe Hortiz, the Ravens Director of College Scouting, and asked him about Reid:

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Jared Gaither has stated his desire to remain in Baltimore, but if that does not occur; do you expect Jah Reid will show the ability to start this Fall? Is there any chance Reid begins his career at RG instead of RT?”

Joe Hortiz: “Jah will be given the opportunity to compete for his role on the depth chart. In terms of OG vs OT, he was drafted as an OT but the coaches will decide where the best position is to start his career. Ultimately I see him playing at OT.”

Despite those comments, I like the idea of Reid at LG. You spent a 3rd rd pick to get him. The Ravens have been touting his potential for a year. In addition to his development from this past season, he will have an entire off-season of mini-camps and Training camp.

My only real reservation is that the Tackle depth would be reduced. It is easier to move Reid to LG, if you feel comfortable with Harewood’s ability to step-in and play either Tackle position if needed. Still, it is clear the Ravens will be adding another interior lineman in the draft. If Oher was knocked out of action, the Ravens would still have the ability of moving Yanda back outside (and replacing him at RG). If McKinnie was lost to injury, Oher could go back to LT, with Yanda replacing Oher.

With those options available, giving Reid the opportunity to grab the position makes a lot of sense.

Birk had a better year at Center than I thought he would, and I’m glad he is returning. Despite the 3 year deal, I expect 2012 will be his last year. The Ravens have made clear they will be adding C/G depth in the Draft. We have seen numerous Mock Drafts connecting Kelechi Osemele, OG, Iowa State, Michael Brewster, C, Ohio State, and Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin with the Ravens with the 29th pick.

If the Ravens select one of them, they will have the option of starting them at LG, and having Reid available for Tackle depth on either-side; or starting Reid at LG, and having the pick available for depth at the 3 interior positions.

I believe the Ravens made the right decision with not extending Grubbs. After giving Yanda the 5 year $32M deal last year, I never believed the Ravens would be positioned to spend that type of money on another Guard.

D-Line: Ngata, Cody, McPhee, Jones, Hall, McAdoo  (6)
Thoughts: Mt. Cody has been exactly the player he was billed as being. He eats up space, and moves athletically. He does not often push the pocket back. With his size, and lower body strength, he is not often moved. It was very rare to see RB’s attempt to run up the middle on the Ravens (though this did happen more in the last few weeks of 2011). Without the sacks, I’m not sure Cody will ever get a lot of recognition, but his presence directly helps Ngata and the LB’s make plays. I’m a big Mt. Cody fan, but believe his impact decreased as the year progressed. I was wondering if he perhaps lost too much weight?

For the 5th time in his 6 year career, Ngata played in all 16 regular season games in 2011. For the 2nd straight year, he had at-least 63 tackles, and 5 sacks. He finished 2nd among DT’s with 5 passes batted down. Ngata has received plenty of recognition for his play (especially after signing the 5 year $61M deal), but on the Ravens defense, he can still be a bit of a ‘forgotten’ man when you hear analysts talking about Baltimore. To me, he is the most important player on the Baltimore defense. He is asked to do a lot, because he is capable of doing just about everything. While he always plays hard, I think there can be games where his impact does not match his talent. When Ngata dominates the line of scrimmage, the Ravens win. Teams start cheating with double and even triple teams to try and take him out of plays, and this opens up opportunities for Ngata’s teammates to make plays of their own.

After a rookie year where Pernell McPhee made plays (6 sacks) seemingly every-time he touched the field, McPhee will now get the opportunity to start as he replaces Redding.

Depth on the D-line was one of the Ravens strengths in 2011. I feel good about Jones,(and McAdoo’s athleticism is always touted) but the depth has to be improved here. I’d like McKinney to return, but that seems unlikely.

LB: Kruger, Lewis, McClain, Suggs, Ellerbe, Kindle, Ayanbadejo,  McClellan (8)
Thoughts: Ngata is my most important Ravens Defensive Player, but Suggs deserves all the accolades and every vote he received for DPOY. Unlike many people, I was in favor of Suggs receiving the extension he signed in 2009. If you remember at the time, there was a lot of discussion in Baltimore that it would be better to part ways with the Arizona State product.  14 sacks, 70 tackles, 2 picks, 7 forced fumbles. Suggs was a monster many weeks. For the people asking where Suggs was against the Patriots, I think you should ask Pagano. The Ravens elected to drop Suggs into coverage more often then not yesterday.

Jarret Johnson parting ways with the Ravens was not a surprise. The Ravens lose his knowledge, but gain fresher legs with Kruger joining the starting lineup. Like McPhee, Kruger had a great year as a situational pass-rusher. Hopefully Kruger proves adept at dropping into coverage when required.

McClain has played in all 64 games of his 4 year career. In 2011, he had 84 tackles (34 solo), with 1 sack, and 1 pick. I was interested to see what would happen with him this off-season, and was pleased the Ravens were able to get him back at a reasonable price.

I did not expect Kindle to play on non-passing downs, but I thought Kindle would be utilized as a pass-rusher this year. It became clear fairly early that Kindle was not quite ready for that. Also, as McPhee and Kruger excelled, the need for Kindle decreased. It was good to see Harbaugh say in mid-December that Kindle had improved his understanding and was ready to play more and more. Perhaps after another off-season of work, mini camps, and training camp; we see the player that many believed to be a Rookie of the Year candidate going into 2010 emerge.

Until the toe injury occurred, Lewis was still playing at an extremely high level this past year. I agree that his pass coverage is not what it once was, but he still runs well to the ball. With his knowledge and preparation, he does not waste movements.

Ellerbe’s future with the Ravens is tied to the draft. If Baltimore selects a MLB (such as Alabama’s Dont’a Hightower), the Ravens are likely to withdraw the 2nd round tender on Ellerbe, thus making him a FA.

CB: Smith, Webb, C. Williams,  Gorrer, C. Brown, C.Graham (6)
Thoughts: CB has been a question for the Ravens going into the past two seasons. If the Ravens avoid losing Webb, it will be a non-issue going into ’12. Webb did not receive the National attention he deserved, but he played like an All-Pro. The Restricted FA was tendered at $2.742M, with a 1st round pick as compensation. Hopefully, Webb does not receive an offer-sheet from someone, I’d much prefer to have Webb, vs. the compensation and be forced to try and replace him.

Williams was solid most weeks. He was tendered at $1.927M, with a 2nd round pick as compensation. Coming off of his hip injury, I’d be surprised if someone tendered him. Though I could see Pagano potentially being interested.

It was a shame to see Smith go down to an injury right away in Game 1, but he ended the year, getting plenty of playing time. Just like Torrey Smith, Jimmy Smith will benefit from a full off-season. You can’t teach his physical attributes. As long as he works hard, he could easily emerge as a shut-down option next year.

Safety: Reed, Pollard, S.Considine (3)
Thoughts: Pollard was every bit the hitter he was advertised as, and a bit better in coverage than I think we were led to believe.

We’ve known for years that Reed is no longer the tackler he was early in his career. I for one, believe that is a good thing overall. While I miss him being sent after the QB as much as he once was, I like that Reed has learned how to avoid the big hit, and be able to stay on the field. It was not that long ago that Reed was openly mentioning retirement as an option. After coming off the PUP list in 2010, he had 8 picks. In 2011 he played in all 16 games. He only had 3 picks, which some have used as indication he was a non-factor. I think that is odd. Every Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and QB that game plans for Baltimore knows they need to have an eye on Reed at all times. If teams are less likely to attack his part of the field, that still impacts games. Like Lewis, one of the things I’ve always respected about Reed is his level of preparation. I said before the playoffs started, that I thought Reed would raise his level of play coming off the bye. I think that is exactly what he did. Instead of again raising the mention of retirement, Reed is openly talking about wanting to play another 4 years. If he plays well in 2012, and wants to continue playing; I can see the Ravens extending him for another 2 yrs. I can’t see the Ravens giving him more than that. Would someone else? Maybe. If Reed is willing to go year-to-year, he will likely end his career in a Baltimore uniform.

I think we can be confident that the Ravens will be looking to add Safety depth in the draft. Perhaps Alabama’s Mark Barron? Notre Dame’s Harrison Smith?

ST: Koch, Cundiff, Cox (3)
Thoughts: I understand that Cundiff had to sprint out to the field in the AFC Championship Game, but there will always be disbelief that he missed that kick. Despite that miss, and his 8 for 15 showing this year from 40+ yards, I’m not surprised he is returning. The Ravens will not want to have a revolving door at the K position. With his long-term contract, and success on Kickoffs; him not returning would have been the upset. With the way Cundiff has responded professionally, and the Ravens rallying around him in numerous comments, the job is his, unless Cundiff looks off in Camp.