O’s Q&A with Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs / Getting Blanked

After taking 5 of 6 games on the road-trip New York, and Boston; the Orioles arrive back in Baltimore with the best record in baseball. To help take a look at what we have seen so far from the O’s, and to look ahead; Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Matt Klaassen for his thoughts.

You can find Klaassen’s work with FanGraphs at:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php?author=6213

You can find Klaassen’s work with Getting Blanked at:
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/author/mattklaassen/

You can find him on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/devil_fingers

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Klaassen for taking the time to answer a few questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In recent interviews with David Szymborski (
Baseball Think Factory / ESPN ), and Scott Miller (CBS Sports) we discussed
potential contract extensions for Wieters (A Free Agent after ’15). Szymborski suggested offering Wieters 6yrs $50M, and seeing if that would be sufficient. Miller thought 5 yrs $25M would be a reasonable contract for both sides. If the O’s were to pursue an extension in the immediate, what contractual terms would you suggest as realistic for both sides? The discussion last season was that he had arrived as one of the best Catchers’ in baseball. Should the discussion now be that he has arrived as one of the elite players regardless of position?”

Klaassen: “I actually wrote about Wieters as a superstar-level player (or
something like it) recently (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/has-matt-wieters-finally-arrived/).Whether that makes him one of the “elite players regardless of
position” sort of depends on a number of factors. I would take him over any other catcher in baseball, and on that basis, he’s probably an elite player. Of the regular catchers, only Yadier Molina is as good or better defensively, and Wieters is a better hitter and younger. We shouldn’t be ready to put Wieters bat by itself into the “OMG” category based on one big month — at the moment, I still think McCann, Mauer, and even Posey probably have an advantage there, but the rest of Wieters’ game is superior.

I could go on and on about Wieters, but I wouldn’t be telling Orioles fans stuff they probably don’t know. Much of his value comes from fielding and playing catcher, and it is tough to estimate how arbitration panels view that stuff. I will say that I think Szymborski is much closer to the mark than Miller. That is, unless Miller’s plan would be for Scott Boras get the offer, die laughing, and for Wieters to hire a much less competent agent.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Adam Jones is a Free Agent after 2013. What makes more sense to you from the perspective of the O’s – A 5 year $60M extension, or trading Jones for 2-3 well regarded, cost-controlled prospects? This year, his Line Drive, and Fly Ball %’s are up. His Swinging Strike % is down. He plays everyday, and plays hard. He has better ab’s, and appears to have improved plate-discipline; but he still does not draw walks.In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones has been a below average CF. How do you
evaluate him as a player?”

Klaassen: “Fielding is obviously hard to evaluate. With all due respect to the
managers and their vastly superior on-field knowledge, I’d be far more convinced if they had polled pro scouts rather than managers, who are (rightly) thinking about a thousand different things during the games rather than evaluating the talent of the opposition. They  are in charge of the Gold Glove voting whose results we all admire so much.That is not to dismiss their opinions entirely, simply to put the poll in perspective. In the field, given the conflicting evaluations, I’d probably put Jones about average, although I’m not confident he’s going to still be a center fielder in three or four years.

The power he’s shown so far this season, along with the lower strikeout rate, is exciting. However, his overall plate discipline is still terrible. His contact rate is still the same. He barely has over 100 plate appearances so far this season. Let’s wait until July before we decide he’s reached a new level.

For now, I’ll say he’s an above-average overall player who still has some of the same flaws he’s had since he made the majors. I suppose one could interpret that as him “still having upside”  or that “he is who is,” depending on  how optimistic or pessimistic one is feeling.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “After 6 starts, Arrieta is: 2-2, with a 3.52 era
(3.39 FIP). In his 38.1 ip, he has allowed 29 hits, 4 hr’s, 9 bb’s, with 33 k’s. His OPS against is .584, and his G/F is 0.84. James projected Arrieta’s 2012 FIP as 4.74, ZiPS projected it as 5.10, and Marcel projected 4.65.

Earlier this year, Camden Depot took a look
(http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2012/03/how-good-is-al-ace-mean-performance-of.html) at the 2011 FIP performances for American League starters by slot.

An AL Pitcher in Slot 1, had a Median FIP of 3.26
An AL Pitcher in Slot 2, had a Median FIP of 3.71
An AL Pitcher in Slot 3, had a Median FIP of 4.06
An AL Pitcher in Slot 4, had a Median FIP of 4.36
An AL Pitcher in Slot 5, had a Median FIP of 4.90

Where do you currently think Arrieta will slot in, to end 2012?”

Klaassen: “It’s been a nice start for Arrieta, mostly due to keeping his walks under control (and getting a bit lucky with balls in play and men on base). At the risk of sounding like a scratched record (remember those?), let’s check back in on Arrieta in August. Also keep in mind that this season’s run environment is stingy enough that those “slot numbers” are going to be lower. At this point, by the end of the year I’d guess he’s somewhere around a #4. But hey, pitcher’s are really volatile, maybe he’s made some changes that we can’t yet see in the numbers. A Pitch f/x person might be of some help here.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If Jim Johnson approximates his 2011 season production (while racking up saves) is there something you believe would prevent him from commanding a package at the non-waiver deadline which value wise is similar to what Texas sent to San Diego last year for Mike Adams?”

Klaassen: “Johnson has his nice attributes, and he’s younger than Adams. Adams was also the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Still, I don’t think there are any GMs left in baseball who are that hung up in on saves as a measure of individual player value any more, and Johnson’s other numbers just don’t compare to Adams. Teams are going to notice that it took about a year for Johnson to wrest the closer’s job away from Kevin Gregg, so the Orioles can’t value him that highly, right? He might have some value to someone, but don’t expect much.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Last Summer, JJ Hardy signed a 3 year $22.5M
extension. In the 3 years he has played 129+ games (’07, ’08, and ’11) his slugging has
been above .463 in each of those seasons. He is also a quality defensive SS. Prized prospect Manny Machado is already at AA Bowie. If Machado ends 2012 appearing to be ready to join the show to start ’13, would you trade Hardy, or move him to 3rd?

Klaassen: “I’m a big fan of Machado. I know there are some who think he will “grow out of shortstop” eventually, but even those people think he’ll hit well enough to be a stud at third. I’d be a bit surprised if he was ready to start 2013 as the Orioles big-league shortstop, but hey, young guys can surprise us.

Having said that… while there is something to be said for just putting a nice team on the field, the Orioles should not be basing when they trade  Hardy on when Machado is ready. Maybe they want to wait a bit longer (given the team’s hot start) to openly put Hardy on the market, but hype aside, this Orioles team isn’t going anywhere the next few years. Hardy is a good player on a team-friendly contract. As a good defensive shortstop with a decent bat, he has real value. The sooner they trade him (given the right trade situation, of course, they shouldn’t just dump him), the more value in prospects/young talent they have a chance to get that will actually be on the next contender in Baltimore, a team that is highly unlikely to include Hardy on  his current contract.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In ’11, Reynolds was amazingly bad at 3rd (-30.3
UZR/150). If left alone at 3rd, would you expect his defense to rebound closer to his ’09 (-7.4 UZR/150), and ’10 (2.5 UZR/150) levels? the Orioles hold a $11M option for Reynolds in ’13. In ’09, FanGraphs valued him as 3.5 WAR player equating to $15.7M in production. In ’10, FanGraphs valued him as 2.3 WAR player equating to $9.2M. A good weekend with the bat in Boston raised his current offensive numbers from horrible, to below average (.693 OPS, 77 ab’s, 33 k’s). His bat obviously figures to continue to come around (.806 career OPS, nearly 2,600 ab’s). If he was primarily a DH, do you think
Reynolds would be a 3 WAR player next year? Should the O’s be willing to pick-up that option?”

Klaassen: “Reynolds has value to some teams even as a DH, but while he walks at a
good clip, his contact issues keep his OBP down, which keeps his offensive value down. Honestly, as a DH, he’d be lucky to be a 2 WAR player at this point. He has some trade value, but not much. Sorry to toot my own horn, but I wrote on something like this topic
just before the season started: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/marketing-mark-reynolds/ ”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Nolan Reimold has a game built on power, plate discipline, athleticism, and constant hustle. He is an easy player to like. The primary knock on him is that he turned 28 in October, and entered ’12 with just 741 previous ML ab’s.What do you see from him, what do you think his ceiling is?”

Klaassen: “I think I said in a Q&A prior to last season that that Orioles should have been giving Reimold playing time instead of wasting time on the likes of Zombie Vlad. He’s another Baltimore hitter playing out of his mind (especially with respect to his power).
He’s not walking, but we would expect that to rise due to regression and past performance. For the same reasons, we would expect his power to drop back down from the current insane levels to above average. He’s probably an average defensive corner outfielder. I don’t think he’s a superstar, but he’s probably an average to above-average everyday player, which has a lot of value given the Orioles’ situation and his salary status. He doesn’t do any one thing incredibly well, but a nice combination of some  average (walk rate, fielding) and above-average (power) skills goes a long way.  It’s nice to see the team finally letting him play.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Markakis signed a large extension after an absolute monster 2008 season. During that year, Markakis had a .897 OPS, with 69 xbh’s, and superior defense. During ’11 Markakis had a .756 OPS,with 47 xbh’s. While I think he is as good defensively as any RF in the American League, the metrics say he is slightly below average. Markakis deserves credit for rebounding from a very poor start last year (.561 OPS in April, .708 OPS in May) with a .806 OPS after the All-Star break. I think there is more there, but at this point you have to consider him a ancillary piece as opposed to a star. If he is not going to be a run producer, should he be utilized as the lead-off hitter to best take advantage of the skills he continues to provide?”

Klaassen: “I could go on and on about batting order, but I won’t. Remember that there is no one “ideal” player for a particular slot. It always depends on who the other players in the order are. Yeah, he probably makes more sense hitting first than third, although it is
very cool that Showalter has had Reimold hit first despite his power (which usually gets a guy moved out of that spot for some stupid reason). Either of Markakis or Reimold is a better choice than Endy Chavez.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Heading into 2012, the favorites for the AL Rookie of the Year were Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, and Yoenis Cespedes. You could also find supporters for Jesus Montero, and Mike Trout. Based on what we have seen, I don’t know if Chen Wei-yen can elevate his way into that conversation, but I  think it is entirely plausible he ends the year as a league average 3rd starter. Through 5 starts, Chen is 2-0, with a 2.76 era. In his 29.1 ip, he has allowed 29 hits, 9 er, 2 hr, 11 bb’s, with 23 k’s. His OPS against is .686, and his G/F ratio is 0.58. Your thoughts on him?”

Klaassen: “Mike Trumbo almost won last year, so anything is possible. I can see him being in the mix, although the Darvish (and to a certain extent, Cespedes) hype is going to be tough to overcome, fair or not.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Like Reimold, Chris Davis has gotten off to a good start. Unlike Reimold, Davis’ on-base % will remain a concern. I asked people prior to the season if they would take the over/under on Davis finishing ’12 with a .750 OPS and 20 homers. Your thoughts? If both players (Reimold and Davis) reach that level, how much better do you feel about the O’s positional core?”

Klaassen: “I can see Davis reaching that level in both categories, but I’m not sure his OBP is going to be a big enough part of that to make him part of the Orioles long-term future given his position.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Jason Hammel is now 4-1, with 2.09 era. His FIP is 2.52. In his 38.2 ip, he has allowed 27 hits, 9 er, 2 hr, 11 bb’s, with 38 k’s. He has induced 61 grounders. His OPS against is .545, and his G/F is 1.56. He is apparently utilizing his 2 seam FB more than he ever has before. Due to that, would you buy into the idea that he could exceed the performance which was expected of him going into the year?”

Klaassen: “I’m a Jason Hammel fan. He’s over his head, and given the moving parts (switching leagues, moving out of Coors, possible greater use two-seamer) it is hard to see exactly what is going on. But it would not surprise me if he turned out to be better than we thought he would be before the season started.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I’m buying into the growing hype with Pedro Strop. His stuff is absolutely electric. If Johnson is not traded, do you think Strop and Johnson will end ’12 as one of the better 8th/9th combinations in the AL?”

Klaassen: “Strop has been impressive, but let’s give him a few more months. He’s still a guy with a BB/9 rate over 5 for his career.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Zach Britton could return to the O’s in late May / early June. Injuries and performance will dictate who he replaces in the Baltimore rotation. Hypothetically though, if Britton is physically ready to return, and Matusz and Hunter are both healthy and providing relatively equal performance; I see Britton replacing Hunter, with Hunter replacing Gregg. Out of Britton, Matusz, and Arrieta; which do you see as having the highest upside?”

Klaassen: “If we’re just talking “upside,” I still think Matusz has the highest, but I also see him as having the lowest “floor.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Going into ’11, we polled 19 writers and analysts on their projected record for the O’s. The average pick was 78 wins. The O’s failed to reach those expectations, winning just 69 games. Baltimore has not reached the 70 win plateau since ’06, nor been at or above .500 since ’97. Going into 2012, most prognosticators had the O’s finishing this year with around 70 wins. To generalize, it seemed that most believed
that it would take nearly everything going right, for a .500 season to occur. With the sweep in Boston, the Orioles moved to 10 games over .500 at 19-9.

Plenty has gone right – Jones and Wieters are playing out of their minds, Hammel has been excellent, Reimold, and Davis have been strong, the bullpen has been fantastic – but not everything has gone right. Despite the past 3 games, Reynolds has really struggled. Hardy is just starting to get going, Reimold has been in and out of the lineup. The defense has been poor overall. Betemit and Markakis can be expected to be better.

Is it unfair to say that the O’s had a league average offense last year, and have upgraded at 1st, LF, and DH? Is it unfair to say that if the starting pitching remains competitive, the O’s will exceed the expectations they began the year with?  After the O’s complete their next 9 games (Texas, Tampa Bay, NY), do you believe the sample size will be large enough to determine how plausible a .500 (or greater) season could be? When 2012 ends, how many wins will the Orioles have?”

Klaassen: “Sample size is something that should be evaluated on the level of the individual player. I think they will probably have a better record than many thought they would have, but not much was expected, either. I’m sure this will look silly in some way at the end of the year, but I’m think 74 to 78 wins is about the right “range” for their year-end wins total.”