With Playoffs In Reach, Questions for the O’s

The Baltimore Orioles are 85-64 as they begin a weekend series in Boston tonight. Currently the O’s are 1 game behind the Yankees in the American League East, and one of the two Wild Card teams in the American League (tied with Oakland).

With 13 games left in the Regular season, and a 4.5 game lead over the LA Angels in the Wild Card race, the odds are obviously high that the O’s will be part of the post-season. Coolstandings.com lists the O’s Playoff odds at 91.4%. Baseball Prospectus has the odds at 88.9%.

What questions exist for the O’s during the remainder of the regular season, and looking ahead to the Playoffs? Here are some:

Question 1) How important is it to hunt down the Yankees for the AL East title?
Answer 1) There is a lot of incentive for the O’s to win the Division, and it is within reach. Both Baltimore and NY have 13 games remaining. NY hosts Oakland this weekend, before going on the road to Minnesota, and Toronto; and finishes their year at home vs. Boston. All of a sudden the Yankees have turned things on, and  have won 5 in a row.

After facing Boston this weekend, the O’s return to Baltimore for 4 games in 3 days vs. Toronto (including a double-header Monday). The O’s will then get a day off again next Thursday before 3 at home vs. Boston, followed by a season ending trip to Tampa Bay.

Even if the O’s lock into a Wild Card spot, every effort should be made to win the Division. Should Baltimore win the East, they would currently face the Chicago White Sox (the WS hold a 2 game lead over the Tigers in the Central) in the American League Division Series. Baltimore is 6-2 vs. the White Sox which is encouraging, but what matters most is that is a Best of 5. As is, the O’s would currently be flying out to Oakland for the 1 game Wild Card Showdown. Should the O’s win that game, the reward would be advancing to face the 2x defending American League Champion Texas Rangers in the Division Series.

The Division Series and a date with the White Sox would greatly increase the O’s chances for a post season run.

Question 2) Is there any chance that Wilson Betemit can be available for the Playoffs?
Answer 2) This is not really an answer, as I do not know. I know that on Monday, The Sun’s Dan Connolly reported that Betemit would not require surgery. Connolly also said that while Betemit is expected to miss the rest of the season, Showalter has not officially ruled him out. With Betemit’s .859 OPS against RHP, you would love to have his bat available.

Question 3) Is Thome ready to produce?
Answer 3) After being obtained in a trade with the Phillies, Thome only played in 18 games with the O’s before being shut down with a herniated disk July 28th. This weekend in Boston, he is returning to action. With Betemit unavailable, Thome’s power, plate discipline, and ability to hit RHP could make a difference. If he is in the lineup, I expect Thome to produce. You just have to wonder if a 42 year old with neck/back injuries will still be able to play on a daily basis. If not, maybe he can still help as a force off the bench.

Question 4) Have we seen the last of Markakis in 2012?
Answer 4) Markakis had surgery Tuesday, September 11th. The AL Wild Card game is currently scheduled for Friday, October 5th with the two ALDS series starting on Saturday October 6th and Sunday October 7th. Markakis said after the surgery, it would be three weeks until they remove the pins and rehab after that. 3 weeks after the 11th, takes us to October 2nd. It might be pushing it for Markakis to be ready for the 6th, or 7th, but maybe not. If Baltimore advances to the ALDS, and the O’s think he could play by Game 3 of that series, I would have a hard time keeping him off the roster. If he can hold a bat, and he can throw, he is on my roster.

Question 5) What is the story with Jason Hammel?
Answer 5) Hammel is on the of main reasons the O’s are in the position they are currently in. He pitched lights-out to start the year, and continued to pitch effectively through knee trouble for several months. After being placed on the DL on July 15th for knee surgery, Hammel returned to action with a 5 inning outing vs. the Yankees on September 6th. That was followed by Hammel having to leave his following start on the 11th, with further knee discomfort. Hammel has yet to pitch in the 10 days since then, and there are no known concrete plans for his next outing. Ideally he would be the starting pitcher in Game 1 of a Division Series. However, I would think he would have to have get on the mound in a regular season game before the year ends, to be comfortable with starting him in the Division Series. On the other-hand, if the O’s were in the Wild Card Showdown, I would consider using Hammel even if he had not pitched in another regular season game. The reason being, that you can change your post-season roster in each round of the Playoffs. Meaning that in the Wild Card Showdown, you could carry a ton of extra relievers, and have them ready to go should Hammel get into early trouble, or not have much stamina.

Question 6) If the O’s win the East, who will be on the 25 man roster for the ALDS?
Answer 6) What happens over the last 13 games (performance, and health) will impact the composition of the roster.

With the current assumptions that Markakis can return during that series, and Betemit can not, my 25 man roster would be:

Hammel, Chen, Tillman, Saunders
Johnson, Strop, O’Day, Ayala, Patton, Matusz, Arrieta, Gonzalez

*Britton, Bundy, S.Johnson, Hunter, Wolf would be the other options. If you select one of these 5, who do they replace from above?

Wieters
Reynolds, Andino, Hardy, Machado
Markakis, Jones, McLouth
Davis
Teagarden, Chavez, Thome, Tolleson

*Flaherty, Quintanilla, Betemit, Avery, Ford, Hoes would be the other options. If you select one of these 6, who do they replace from above?

Two of Arrieta, Britton, and Bundy could be on the post-season roster, replacing Wada, and Pomeranz. The rule is: To be eligible for a team’s playoff roster a player must be on any of the following: (a) the 25 man active roster, (b) the disabled list, (c) the bereavement list, or (d) the suspended list as of August 31 at midnight[citation needed]. The only exception is that a player on the 60-day disabled list may be replaced by another player from the team’s 40-man roster (as of August 31) who plays the same position (i.e. position player for position player, or pitcher for pitcher), with the approval of the commissioner of baseball.

Obviously there could be replacements for both Markakis and Hammel if you did not believe in their health.

If Hammel is on the roster, I would think you would take 2 of 3 out of Saunders, Gonzalez and Britton. We will have to evaluate the performances of these 3 over their last several appearances. Right now, you would have to give Saunders (because of his experience) and Gonzalez (familiarity of pitching out out of the ‘pen, and a bit more consistent) the nod over Britton.  It looks like Britton will either start tomorrow, or Sunday in Boston. After 4 very strong starts in a row, Britton has been poor the last two times out. If Britton again finds his form, I would like to include him.