Draft Days 2016: Thursday April 28 thru Saturday April 30th. The 81st time that NFL franchises come together to draft players. Chicago’s Auditorium Theatre will be the scene of Goddell’s next round of memorable BROHUGS. A total of 253 picks set for seven rounds.
The Ravens currently hold nine picks including pick #6, #36, #70 and four in the fourth round. That 4th round group of picks could be critical to the success of the 2016 Ravens as they look to fill critical needs and find players who can compete and play now.
(Discuss in the BSL forums here.)
Let’s take a look at the past few years for the entire AFC North and how performance, draft emphasis and win-loss record tie together. If there is one thing for certain, the four team division has been anchored by the Cleveland Browns. Not anchored in a good way, however. The casual fan already knows that and I don’t want to be accused of piling on the Browns… too much. Perhaps the recent wholesale changes in the organization will change their fortunes. The upcoming draft for the Browns is very intriguing due to these recent large-scale front office changes.
The Ravens performance took a well documented dip in 2015. The Q-Scores and win-loss record do not lie and the question is: How quickly can they turn it back around? Is the dip a reflection of an insufficient roster or just bad luck with injuries? The Raven’s 2015 performance was down in the “Browns Zone” but how quickly will it change?
Breaking the performance up into offense, defense and team brings the attention to the defense in 2015. Looking back at the draft emphasis from 2013 and 2014 – the top three picks were all on the defensive side of the ball. A quick look at the draft emphasis for all AFC North over the past few years is visualized below. Draft emphasis based on the top three picks analyzed with the following metric: +2 for 1st pick if on offense, +1 for each pick on offense after the 1st pick, -2 for 1st pick if on defense, -1 for each pick on defense after the 1st pick. Also shown is the average for all four teams in the division. The max for any draft is 4 if all three picks are on offense and -4 if all three picks are on defense. The majority of these top draft picks MUST have an impact for an organization to be successful. Multiple misses in these high rounds are devastating – especially in the same year.
From 2010 to 2014, the Ravens first pick had always been on defense. The 2013 and 2014 drafts went heavy defense and the 2015 Ravens went heavy offense. Will that defensive emphasis start to show itself on the field in 2016? BSL Analyst Jason Hirschhorn takes a detailed look at the 2014 draft class here….The 2013 draft of Matt Elam in the first round and the trading of three picks to move up six spots to draft LB Arthur Brown out of Kansas State with their second pick looks as if it will haunt the organization.
Ravens assistant general manager Eric DeCosta was quoted as saying about Brown, “He’s a guy that we coveted…..The idea of not getting him was pretty scary, so we decided to make a move.”
GM Ozzie Newsome had a plan to attack the draft after winning Super Bowl 47 over the Niners and felt good about its execution. “Over the past two days, the picks have definitely addressed the middle of our defense.”
Of the first three picks in 2013, Brandon Williams taken in the third round sits as the starting NT on the depth chart. Building and reloading thru the draft is essential. A 2016 recovery by the Ravens defense will be made tougher when multiple recent high round draft picks are not on the field, for whatever reason.
Looking at the recent past, the Steelers defense turned a Q-Score of -40 in 2014 to +12 in 2015. A Q-Score improvement of even 30 points would be a huge step in the right direction for the 2016 Ravens.
I think the Ravens should continue to emphasize the offense to keep the talent high around their franchise quarterback. You need not look too far in the division (Browns) to see what happens when you do NOT have a franchise or even a sustainable quarterback. If you have it, protect it and the Ravens have it now. A QB like Flacco will always give the Ravens a “puncher’s chance.” The Raven’s offense improved its Q-Score from 2013 to 2014 by almost 50 points. Are the Raven’s destined to be an up-and-down organization in the near future or are they built for sustained success? Will the offense rebound in 2016 and will the defense follow suit? April 28th will will begin the next big step towards recovery from a 5 win 2015 season.
I think the Ravens should use the 3rd round pick and that bevy of 4th round picks to find players on defense who can come to camp and compete now. No projects here and be wary of injury history with talented players who have fallen in the draft.
Either way, my feelings on the Raven’s draft efforts will not stop after the selection is announced. For me, it is a MUST to include in the evaluation each pick’s “connection” with the Commish.
Dr. Guyader is the Owner / Founder of The Q5.com, which specializes in Football Visualizations and Drive Analytics. Additionally, Guyader has 10 years of Division I football experience coaching top-tier and historic programs. From guiding third round NFL draft pick Ramses Barden for four seasons at Cal Poly to converting 6-foot 10-inch lineman Ali Villanueva to wide receiver at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Andy knows how to coach on the field and how to game-plan in a meeting.