The 2015 Ravens finished 5-11. Tied with Jacksonville and San Francisco in the win column – ranked 27th and they hold the 6th pick in the first round of the April draft. The 2015 season was a disappointment for a franchise that has seen good success over the past 10 years. Beyond the win-loss record, reflective analytics give insights into the Raven’s season-long performance in several critical situations.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

As background, every drive from the 2015 season has been analyzed using a performance metric taking into account several factors including starting field position, yardage covered and drive result. GameMaps present this information from each game is exact chronological order and has been presented in two prior posts recapping the 16 games from 2015.

How did the Ravens end up with 5 wins? The easy answer: By scoring fewer points than their opponents in 11 games last year. But more importantly, why? Areas of success and struggle can be isolated when compared to the other 31 teams in the NFL.  Reference to situations or categories that correlate the strongest with winning are also made throughout the post.

Q-SCORES (Drive Performance)

Based on a season-long average of all Drive-Q values from every game, the Ravens offense ranked 22nd (-15), the defense ranked 23rd (-34) but the team ranked 27th (-26). The team is evaluated with all offensive and defensive drives and all special teams scoring plays, turnovers and missed FGs both for and against. This reveals that the special teams unit performed the poorest of all three units from the 2015 season. In comparison, the Broncos had the 4th ranked defense (+35), the 28th ranked offense (-32) and the 11th ranked team (+7). Special teams for the Broncos tipped their team Q-score up.

STARTING FIELD POSITION

Field position analysis: the ability to create a long field for your opponent and a short field for your team. The Ravens ranked 16th with a net zero field position difference. The best: NE (+7 yds), KC (+6) and SEA (+6). The worst: SD (-8) and SF(-5). This was also a category that correlated very well with winning games.

TeamwinsDrive-Q:
OFF
DEFTeamField
Position:
O Start
D StartYdg
Diff
ARI1373345872730
ATL86-15-37573-1
BAL5-15-34-2673730
BUF812-667472-2
CAR1557515569734
CHI615-31-1471744
CIN1257344270755
CLE3-44-43-467371-2
DAL4-30-41-397673-3
DEN12-323577571-4
DET7-3-48-247571-4
GB10114972742
HOU9-2817-17470-4
IND8-27-29-2573730
JAX50-48-257372-1
KC1154485169756
MIA6-31-32-287473-2
MIN1137112970755
NE1275244370767
NO740-63-117473-1
NYG620-37-472742
NYJ1015462371732
OAK7-9-8-1371732
PHI7-23-17-147473-1
PIT1041243772710
SD41-42-247769-8
SEA1065284671766
SF5-33-58-457671-5
STL7-3821-1173741
TB620-53-217469-4
TEN3-44-17-317371-2
WSH916-16073730

NON-SCORING DRIVES

Q-Scores are created from drive performance on all drives: scoring drives and non-scoring drives. In terms of all non-scoring drives, the Ravens ranked 28th. The top four teams in this category were KC, ARI, CAR and NE. Of the 54 categories analyzed, the non-scoring drives correlated third strongest to winning after TD differential and Team Q-Scores. What a team does with the football when they are not scoring points is extremely important as it relates to field position. I’ll take this all the way to the play-by-play level. As a position coach in college we always analyzed plays as if everyone on  the field has a coin bag. On every play, either you take someone’s coin or someone is taking yours. There is no push in this regard. You are constantly sparing with your combatant on defense. Each individual battle combines for play success. Play success to drive success. Drive success to scoreboard success.  What happens on non-scoring drives (NSDs) is vital because over 70% of the drives in a game result in no points.

TeamwinsNSDs:
OFF
DEFTEAMO #D #
ARI13-1601994290120
ATL8-181160-8101103
BAL5-174146-25119104
BUF8-1681776111110
CAR15-1631853699131
CHI6-157159010499
CIN12-1561813195119
CLE3-206185-3311394
DAL4-185141-3111096
DEN12-193173-3127132
DET7-183154-2411098
GB10-1801734111118
HOU9-179152-6131132
IND8-185154-18120115
JAX5-177157-18118103
KC11-1391994398123
MIA6-176149-26128109
MIN11-1541822293106
NE12-1481783393123
NO7-154163-510091
NYG6-1681773105100
NYJ10-17219820116124
OAK7-185193-5118109
PHI7-181177-9132118
PIT10-1772002998117
SD4-171153-2011296
SEA10-1531702688115
SF5-166120-36122100
STL7-1531854135121
TB6-147165-810091
TEN3-192180-23129100
WSH9-1811833100109

TOUCHDOWNS

In terms of TD differential, the 2015 Ravens were at negative-12 which means opponents scored 12 more TDs than the Ravens. This ranked 27th in the NFL last season.

Another revealing situation is the response to touchdowns. When the opponent scores a TD, how does the offense respond? Using Drive-Q scores, the Ravens offense ranked 17th in the NFL. How did the Ravens defense respond to a Ravens touchdown? Drive-Qs show that the defense ranked 26th in the NFL in this category. The Ravens defensive response to both team adversity and team success is an area that must improve in 2016.

The best counter-punchers on offense? Steelers and it is not even close – they were the best offense responding to a TD scored against their team. The best defenses to reinforce their team’s scoring of a touchdown: NYJ, STL and DEN. Those defenses were the strongest in the league after a TD had been scored by their offense.

TeamwinsTDs:
OFF
ALLDEFALLTD DIFFTD
Response
(Q-Scores):
OFF
DEFTEAM
ARI135158333424-275525
ATL835383941-319225
BAL529334045-12-15-40-18
BUF8424540423-4828-5
CAR1555593235242557
CHI634344047-1319-75-22
CIN124950262921-355323
CLE325284549-21-2737-17
DAL424263541-15-55-96-85
DEN12323829326228755
DET740424647-5-2-96-43
GB1040423335745330
HOU9363934372-251-11
IND832374347-10-23-21-29
JAX540444451-7-8-43-23
KC113945323411433236
MIA635394446-7-818-43
MIN11323731316-171220
NE125052323616-22818
NO748515759-820-61-13
NYG641474650-3541641
NYJ104444293410-209443
OAK7414237411-3522-25
PHI738454650-5-44-10-27
PIT1042453535101054283
SD434353944-9-13-36-23
SEA104449242722462927
SF523244143-19-51-40-47
STL727302832-2-9391-1
TB634374447-10-3130-11
TEN335374551-141-60-22
WSH9394441440-286628

TURNOVERS

We all know the anecdotes relating to the importance of turnovers. For the season, the Ravens were at minus 15, ranking 31st. Turnover differential has a very strong correlation with win/loss record. It is slightly more important for your team to have the ability to take the ball away than not give it away. The offense had way too many turnovers last season (26) with two additional turnovers by the ST unit. In conjunction with the defense taking it way only 12 times (ranked 31st) this is an area that must improve if the team’s record is to improve next season.

Not just tracking the number of turnovers but looking at the performance on the drive following a turnover is very revealing for the Ravens. The Ravens offense ranked 5th in the NFL in terms of performance after the Ravens took the ball away from their opponent. The offense capitalized off a turnover either by scoring or successfully moving the football. However the Ravens ranked dead last in the NFL for defensive performance on the drives immediately following a turnover by the offense. The inability of the Ravens defense to respond to a sudden change situation must be improved upon in 2016. Perhaps the addition of leadership by Weddle will help in this regard.

TeamwinsTurn-
overs:
OFF
Total
Give-
away
DEFTotal
Take-
away
DiffQ-Scores
AFTER
Turnovers:
OFF
DEFTEAM
ARI13222431339200-39122
ATL830302323-793-6322
BAL526281213-15169-238-113
BUF816192226749-118-6
CAR15191938392016719133
CHI620211417-462-116-75
CIN12171727281181-91-6
CLE327302121-9-721-35
DAL431331011-224751-9
DEN1230312426-5-22-114-47
DET722241718-653-122-40
GB10171721225-79-47-59
HOU92020222557-198-69
IND828302425-5-66-135-55
JAX527281718-10234-148-27
KC11131528291414313124
MIA620211616-5-7-168-84
MIN1116172122542-6819
NE12111420217140-2364
NO719202122259-72-19
NYG62121272871391082
NYJ10232428306108-648
OAK720232224195-120-46
PHI731312527-4124-1665
PIT10252627304108-3069
SD422241820-440-42-34
SEA1015162323724522164
SF515171212-5-15-172-119
STL7202124265796854
TB626282323-5143-215-72
TEN331331519-1448-104-66
WSH9202227275-38-218-113

EXTREME ENDS OF THE FIELD

Let’s look at performance when drives start in the extreme ends of the field. This analysis must take into account performance but also the number of occurrences. Two categories: when drives start more than 87 yards from the end zone (long field) and when drives start less than 55 yards from the end zone (short field). These yard lines will define the extreme ends of the field. The Ravens defense ranked 12th when the opponent has a long field but ranked 25th in terms of number of occurrences (D#). On the other side of the ball, the offense ranked 20th when inheriting a long field and were ranked 4th in number of occurrences (O#). For a short field, again the defense did NOT respond well to this adversity situation and ranked 29th. The offense was ranked 15th when inheriting a short field.

TeamwinsShort
Field:
OFF
DEFTEAMO #D #DIFFLong
Field:
OFF
DEFTEAMO #D #DIFF 
ARI13258-193572520501267318257
ATL829-66-211719-239-21920211
BAL5127-205-671724-7-73931216171
BUF8190-52601922-3-879712422-2
CAR1518751139351916-82471715-2
CHI6-9-236-91301713-12-9-102219-3
CIN12225-3149281414-50892420233
CLE3-95-79-861926-7-203-104-15120222
DAL432-164-931221-91738272019-1
DEN126-93-522028-8-151106-522918-11
DET7158-203-691729-12-18849-1042413-11
GB1080-263426206-133122-92019-1
HOU94-126-801934-15-8159-232618-8
IND8-51-297-17121201-5648321276
JAX5306-200161824-6-152-142-1471917-2
KC11126-307133181531183122203010
MIA692-142-1920182-124-26-842618-8
MIN11181-22114311516-273431716-1
NE12238351722512139623915205
NO7126-150-41816229-36-418191
NYG6150-151-119190-7418-2118257
NYJ1081-472125223-451385620255
OAK76-73-33303002313292193213
PHI7136-116-61722-5-12111-5525250
PIT10129-16552627-1-111909024240
SD4185-47141131-20-123-45-1012811-17
SEA10151-1922626151110712912018268
SF5-59-181-1371221-9-474-302714-13
STL7115931031924-5-10743-1921309
TB6139-168-441928-9-2197311411-3
TEN339-156-681923-4-58801224251
WSH9125-298-5821165-3562919234

1st QUARTER and 3rd QUARTER

Finally, lets look at the 1st quarter and the 3rd quarter performance. Starting quickly is very important in terms of winning and losing. The 1st quarter performance correlates stronger with winning than the 3rd quarter performance. Best offenses in the 1st quarter – Saints, Patriots and KC. Best defenses: NYJ, MIN and DEN. The Ravens rank 19th on offense and 24th on defense in the 1st quarter. In terms of coming out of halftime, the offense ranked 30th and the defense 20th for the Ravens. The offense has this area to improve in 2016.

Teamwins1st
QTR:
OFF
ALLDEFALLTeam3rd
Qtr:
OFF
ALLDEFALLTeam
ARI136980-94467693858588
ATL81512-42-52-211711-113-106-41
BAL51418-44-50-17-61-50-42-58-54
BUF81414-17-1406326-71-67-20
CAR154964-2-21226674323554
CHI62-12-34-76-444938-45-392
CIN127474318452734341524
CLE3-29-32261-15-65-53-166-159-103
DAL4-27-18120-9-53-40-48-60-49
DEN12-92343820-70-615141-11
DET73030-18-147-44-54-56-45-49
GB1025461515303838-47-58-10
HOU9-26-15-90-77-463636566752
IND8-11-130130-34-23-99-98-62
JAX51313-114-108-466571-20-4113
KC119398212359-33383819
MIA6-54-54-56-62-58-29-20-35-25-23
MIN1135425364538595192256
NE121171171719657164201039
NO7126124-41-41452536-109-104-34
NYG65252-27-2412-11-3-14-21-12
NYJ1049468586656969544356
OAK71612-96-105-47-3-1320224
PHI7-23-25-62-51-38-920-14-32-6
PIT104732-45-45-45163808173
SD4-4-19-34-30-25-34-369-4-20
SEA1024371717268287573361
SF5-77-83-52-64-74-17-17-72-58-39
STL7-54-44-12-9-272419443326
TB64027-32-52-15-4-13-59-59-35
TEN3-36-35-50-44-3935353318
WSH97878212150-17-9-116-111-61

 

From a coaching perspective, this information helps guide film study and scheme preparation in the off-season and during the season. Opponent and self-scout should be illuminated through the analytics of situational performance. Now the analysis continues to the more granular play-by-play level, again using a success metric to unearth scheme and personnel tendencies. From the macro to the micro, analytics and data visualization can be leveraged to aide in productivity and increase efficiencies.

From an executive perspective, a macro level drive analysis links to draft and free agency needs. This analysis is calibrated to accurately reflect performance without the clouding of emotion. Analytics has a place in the spectrum of football organizational decisions. Sometimes it will validate gut instincts and other times go against it. It is a piece – not the most important piece – but an extremely useful piece when properly integrating in the decision making processes that occur daily in a professional football organization.

A few odd and ends are also included in the following table. Enjoy.

Teamwins3 and
Punt
(Q-Scores):
OFFDEFTEAMO #D #0-play
TDs
Opponent
0-play
TDs
ARI13-17820144263771
ATL8-18918711283232
BAL5-18520716384045
BUF8-201186-24504232
CAR15-1891897384143
CHI6-18220112414207
CIN12-18718415364313
CLE3-203210-13403434
DAL4-183183-5393726
DEN12-193194-3535163
DET7-202177-24433821
GB10-193178-12444222
HOU9-2052002515333
IND8-187188-17484054
JAX5-193196-23493847
KC11-201206-3403862
MIA6-206193-14444142
MIN11-20119333263850
NE12-18720049375824
NO7-1981968333632
NYG6-190199-3383564
NYJ10-18719413515605
OAK7-204198-21484014
PHI7-2022093474774
PIT10-2101939313730
SD4-19219925334115
SEA10-18918228324553
SF5-206204-34443212
STL7-198195-23514134
TB6-19419513273133
TEN3-193204-13534426
WSH9-204202-30443353
Andy Guyader
Andy Guyader

Dr. Guyader is the Owner / Founder of The Q5.com, which specializes in Football Visualizations and Drive Analytics. Additionally, Guyader has 10 years of Division I football experience coaching top-tier and historic programs. From guiding third round NFL draft pick Ramses Barden for four seasons at Cal Poly to converting 6-foot 10-inch lineman Ali Villanueva to wide receiver at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Andy knows how to coach on the field and how to game-plan in a meeting.

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