2020 Ravens Offensive Projections

It’s been an eventful weekend for the Baltimore Ravens, but for the purpose of this article I’m not going to delve into what transpired with a certain former free safety. Instead, I am going to attempt to project some offensive stats for the Ravens skill position players.

In my last article, I talked a little bit about the offensive personnel changes that transpired this past offseason and how that might affect how the offense looks in 2020. I’m going to take that discussion a step further and project what that might look in the box score.

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In 2019, Lamar Jackson was the engine that powered a high performance sports car. The entire offense revolved around Jackson’s unique skill-set. That’s not changing in 2020, but what might change is how Jackson distributes the ball and that includes how many times he keeps the ball. Last season, Jackson set NFL records for a QB both in the number of times he rushed the ball (176) and in the number of yards he rushed for (1206) on the ground. On a per game basis, he rushed the ball 11.7 times and he picked up 6.9 YPA which led all players. I’m going to project that Lamar cuts that number down to 9 attempts per game and I think we can still assume a very healthy 6.5 YPA. That number may even go up if Jackson can pick and choose his spots a bit more. Regardless, if he reaches those number in 2020 it will total 144 rush attempts for 936 yards. Touchdowns are bit more random, but I think it is reasonable to project he matches his 7 rushing TDs from 2019.

Lamar was incredibly efficient every time he kept the ball, but he was even more efficient when he passed it. Last season Jackson only passed the ball 26.7 times per game which was the lowest mark for QBs sin the NFL. I think that number increase in 2020 to 30 passes per game. His YPA when passing was also very good at 7.8, and I think that can actually improve in 2020 to 8.0 YPA with a completion % staying about the same at 65%. If he does indeed attempt 30 passes per game that would give him a total of 3,840 passing yards and 240 yards passing per game. Jackson had an otherworldly 9 % TD rate in 2019. That number is going to decrease in 2020, but I think he can still throw for a good number of scores in this offense; 31 TDs would give Lamar a TD rate of 6.5% which I think is very reasonable. One of the aspects of Jackson’s game that isn’t discussed enough is how good he is at limiting interceptions. His INT rate has been extremely low in each of his first two seasons at 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively. I expect it to be in the same range in 2020, so let’s split the difference and say 1.7% which projects to a mere 8 interceptions.

In total, I have Lamar Jackson rushing for 936 yards and 7 TDs on 144 rushing attempts and passing for 3,840 yards, 31 TDs and 8 INTs on a 65% completion percentage. This would mean his total TDs regress compared to 2019, but his yardage totals increase by a small margin.

So where are all of those targets going? In 2019, Mark Andrews was Lamar Jackson’s favorite target in the passing game accounting for a massive 24% target share despite only playing 41% of the team’s offensive snaps. Andrews role in the offense should get even larger as he projects to be on the field more frequently. I’m projecting Andrews to have a 22% target share which amounts to 106 targets. With those targets I see Andrews catching 71 balls for 888 receiving yards and 8 TDs.

There is a good chance that Marquise Brown is the largest beneficiary of a more pass-first offense. In 2019, Brown was Jackson’s second favorite target with 71 total targets. I think Hollywood could see 6 targets per game in 2020, which would land him at 96 targets. I project Brown to have 62 receptions, 930 receiving yards and 9 TDs in 2020 which I think is reasonable given an expanded role in the offense.

Where the rest of Jackson’s targets go is a bit more of a guessing game. If I had to wager, I would put money on Miles Boykin for the 3^rd highest number of targets in the Ravens passing game, but a good argument could also be made for Nick Boyle. Boykin is more of a projection because he had a fairly small role in the Ravens 2019 offense, but I do think that he will be the starting WR opposite of Brown. If we combine Boykin’s and Seth Roberts’ totals from last season we end up with 57 targets, and I think 65 is a reasonable number of targets for Boykin in 2020. A 55% catch rate projects him to have 36 catches, and 576 receiving yards and 3 TDs seems reasonable in 2020.

Nick Boyle should see the next largest target share, but I don’t see him doing much more than he did in 2019 even with the absence of Hayden Hurst. Boyle is a decent short to intermediate pass-catcher, but he is not going to threaten the seam or be a consistent chain-mover. I think he sees a minor up-tick in his 2019 totals of 43 targets, 31 receptions and 2 TDs to 48 targets and 35 receptions for 315 yards and 2 TDs.

Its a little hard to project the next 3 WRs on the depth chart as two of them are rookies and all three may be vying for the same snaps out of the slot. I would lean towards Willie Snead receiving the most targets out of this group as he is the veteran and already has rapport with Jackson. He had 46 targets in 2019, but I think that number may actually decrease to 35. Snead was quite productive with this target share as he hauled in 5 TD passes in 2019. My guess is he ends 2020 with 21 catches for 244 yards and 1 TD.

As the season progresses, I think the rookies will be more integrated into the offense and Devin Duvernay may be the biggest beneficiary. I actually think it is likely that he passes Snead on the depth chart at some point and becomes the Ravens primary slot WR. To that end, I see Duvernay seeing almost as many targets as Snead with 33 and I think he will match the 21 receptions, but with a higher YPC for 305 yards and 2 TDs. James Proche will likely spend most of his time on ST, but I do think he will work his way onto the field and garner 15 targets from Jackson for 8 catches, 110 yards and 1 TD.

The remaining targets in the Ravens offense will be allocated to the RB group in which I project rookie J.K. Dobbins to receive the largest volume in the passing game with 35 targets, 24 catches for 220 yards and 3 TDs. Mark Ingram will likely see a downtick in his work in the passing game, but should still see 22 targets and 15 catches for 110 yards and 1 TD. Justice Hill will likely still see some work as a 3^rd down back and garner 15 targets for 11 catches and 95 yards. The last handful of targets will be split between Gus Edwards (3 targets, 2 catches, 15 yards) and Patrick Ricard (7 targets, 6 catches, 32 yards).

The Ravens running game is a bit more straightforward than the passing game. Lamar Jackson will see a large part of the work with Ingram and Dobbins carrying most of the load for the RBs. I do think that Ingram will start the season as the starter and should still see a plurality of carries. Last year Ingram carried the ball 202 times for 1018 yards for an impressive 5.0 YPA. He also scored 10 rushing TDs.

In 2019, Ingram’s workload should drop off a bit. I think he will see closer to 150 rush attempts, and if we assume a very healthy 4.8 YPA he would end up with 720 rushing yards. I think Ingram could easily find the endzone 8 times.

Just how much of the RB workload that Dobbins eats into will be one of the more interesting subplots of the Ravens 2020 season. I do think Dobbins will see a large share of the workload and currently project him for 120 rush attempts, but I would not be surprised if he and Ingram end up seeing close to the same amount of work by the end of the season. Dobbins big-play ability means he could have a very high YPA especially in this offense. I’m going to be somewhat conservative and say he rushes for 5.5 YPA which would give him 660 rushing yards. His homerun ability means 5 rushing TDs is a very reasonable total.

Gus Edwards was low-key extremely effective in 2019, and his rushing total of 711 yards at 5.3 YPA is nothing to sniff at. That said, he is likely to be the player that is most affected by the addition of Dobbins to the Ravens offense. Edwards had 133 rush attempts in 2019, and I see that number getting cut in half to 65 attempts in 2020. I still see Edwards maintaining a high level of efficiency at 5.0 YPA which would see him rush for a total of 325 yards, and I think he could easily match his 2 TDs from 2019.

Justice Hill is the last part of this equation, and while he had a somewhat underwhelming rookie season, I think he will still have a role in this offense. Hill had 58 rush attempts in 2019, and I see him having a similar workload in 2020 with 50 rush attempts while increasing his efficiency from 3.9 YPA to 4.5 YPA and 225 rushing yards. Hill scored 2 TDs as a rookie which seems doable again in 2020.