As the Orioles prepare for a four-game series against the New York Yankees, they’ll be looking at a much different bullpen than what they took to Buffalo to face the Toronto Blue Jays last week. Mychal Givens has joined the Colorado Rockies, Miguel Castro is now a New York Met and Cole Sulser has been demoted from the closer position. As such, the Orioles now find themselves with new pitchers expected to appear in high leverage situations during the eighth and ninth innings.
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Before we look at who should be handling those spots, let’s break down how Givens and Castro were being used before their trades.
After a 2019 where he struggled as a closer, Givens never had a chance to record a save this year. The only time he pitched in the ninth inning was when he had a four-run lead against the Washington Nationals, recording the final three outs in a game delayed multiple days thanks to a tarp malfunction in Washington. Of his 12 relief appearances before the trade, Givens began his outing in the seventh inning six times and eighth inning five times to go along with the single instance he began pitching in the ninth inning. Removing Givens from the closer spot worked, as he didn’t allow an earned run in his first ten appearances, good for a 1.38 ERA in Baltimore. In addition to his excellent ERA, he still leads the Orioles in holds with five.
Another notable part of how Givens was used in the bullpen is how rarely he pitched with inherited runners on base. In 12 games, Givens only pitched with five inherited runners, which stands in contrast to Tanner Scott, who dealt with 19 inherited runners in 17 games, or Travis Lakins, who has had 14 inherited runners in 14 games. Based on leverage index, which measures the importance of each at-bat, Givens went from averaging the highest leverage appearances in 2019 to ranking sixth for 2020. The main theme of 2019 to 2020 for him was pitching with less pressure and his improved numbers this year in just about every stat reflect exactly that.
While Givens had a pretty clearly defined role, Miguel Castro had to be ready for anything. Castro entered games as early as the fifth inning and as late as the tenth inning before finding his new home in Queens. In an August 1 meeting with the Tampa Bay Rays, Castro was trusted to keep the score tied at 4-4 in the ninth inning, while he successfully recorded a save a week later against the Nationals at Nats Park. In other occasions, Castro was summoned with runners already in scoring position, such as the August 22 game against the Boston Red Sox. With the bases loaded and one out, Castro recorded a strikeout and a pop fly to work out of the jam. Of course, he also had rough outings, such as the game in Philadelphia where he allowed homers to Bryce Harper and Jean Segura. As I previously wrote about, Castro’s 2020 saw him increase his strikeouts and reduce his walks while still seeing batters hit his pitches harder than before.
Cole Sulser’s former role is much easier to explain than Castro or Givens: he was the closer. After recording a two-inning save against the Red Sox in the second game of the season, Sulser had seven more save opportunities, recording four saves and blowing three of them. Baltimore’s trip to Buffalo wound up being the final straw for Sulser as the closer. On August 28 against the Jays, Sulser allowed a walk-off homer to Randal Grichuk and then two days later, he struggled to find the plate on his way costing the Orioles a win after allowing a walk-off single to Teoscar Hernandez. The easiest way to sum up the issues with Sulser is this: he has as many walks as strikeouts.
With two trades and a demotion, this clears the way for three pitchers who can be part of Baltimore’s bullpen of the future: Hunter Harvey, Tanner Scott and Dillon Tate.
For Hunter Harvey, his main concern is his health. He wasn’t ready to pitch this season until August 30, missed all of 2015 and has never pitched 100 innings in a year since he was drafted. Harvey only pitched 6.1 innings last year, but made them count, striking out 11 batters, good for a 15.6 K/9. In his seven appearances in 2019, he twice pitched in especially high leverage situations. Against the Nats, he was trusted with protecting a two-run lead in the bottom of the eighth, while a visit to Tropicana Field saw him pitch in a tie game with a runner in scoring position. Harvey’s two outings of 2020 have been a mixed bag, allowing a walk and hit with no strikeouts against the Blue Jays, followed by an inning against the Mets with two strikeouts and a hit allowed. With a fantastic mullet and a fastball in the high 90s, a successful Harvey wouldn’t just benefit the Orioles, he’d also be pretty fun to watch.
Tanner Scott has been enjoying a breakout season, recording four holds and a save this year. He has a WHIP under 1.000 for the first time in his career along with the best BB/9 of his career. Most notably, opponents have an OPS of under .500 against him, a huge improvement from his career mark of .802 heading into 2020. Scott also has gotten much better at inducing ground balls, which I’ve already covered. While Scott was solid pitching to other lefties, he’s shown massive improvements facing right-handed hitters this year, holding them to a .332 OPS after allowing .997 OPS last year. If Scott is able to consistently get batters out when he doesn’t have the platoon advantage, he becomes a lot more viable to be used in higher leverage situations in the bullpen going forward.
With Cody Carroll and Josh Rogers both looking like lost causes, Dillon Tate is the last part of the Zack Britton trade who can provide the Orioles with real value. Tate, the #4 pick in the 2015 draft, had a forgettable 2019 with a 5.17 FIP and 6.43 ERA over 21 innings. This year, he’s trimmed his 1.286 WHIP to 0.808 and has an ERA and FIP under 4.00. Tate’s most recent appearance in Buffalo was especially encouraging: over 2.1 innings, he allowed zero hits and walked just one man, helping end Baltimore’s losing streak. Tate has recorded at least five outs in all of his appearances his year, providing value to the bullpen with his ability to last multiple innings out of the bullpen.
Now that the Orioles have sold at the deadline, it’s pretty clear the rest of this season will be focused on trading wins for development and the bullpen is the perfect place for this. Going forward, the trio of Harvey, Scott and Tate should all get the chance to close or otherwise pitch in high leverage situations in the eighth inning or later. Maybe they struggle and can’t handle the pressure, but isn’t now the perfect time to figure it out?
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).