Orioles: 40 Games In, 20 Games To Go

The Baltimore Orioles took 3 of 4 games from the New York Yankees this weekend, with Dean Kremer winning his Major League debut Sunday afternoon. With the completion of Sunday’s game, 40 games are in the books, with 1/3 of this truncated 2020 MLB season remaining for the O’s.

Here we take a look at what we’ve seen so far, and what to watch over the next 20 games.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

The Orioles are 19-21

Every projection of the Orioles entering the season, had the O’s earmarked to be baseball’s worst team.

Nobody is expecting the O’s to go on some 18-2 stretch to end the year, march through the playoffs and take down the Los Angeles Dodgers in this years World Series – but 2/3rds through this year, the Orioles have not been an embarrassment. They’ve been competitive most nights, and an enjoyable watch. An 11-9 mark over these last 20 games, and a .500 record to end season would be cool to see.

Regarding Next Year

One of the issues for Front Offices, Analysts, and fans this Winter will be trying to determine how much to weight to put on what we saw in this 60 game 2020 season.

And the rightful answer to that, is only so much.

Extended rosters have helped the Orioles as a whole.
Roster deficiencies that would be repeatedly exposed over a 162 game Marathon, can be minimized over 60 games.

If the O’s finish this year 30-30, that doesn’t mean their baseline entering the off-season is necessarily that of a .500 team.

Same thing on an individual level. If there has been play in this 60 game stretch that is vastly above or below the levels you would have expected for Player X over a 162 game season, don’t dismiss what we’ve seen; but just factor it into the larger evaluation.

Beginning To Put Some Pieces Together

Tanner Scott, Hunter Harvey, Dillon Tate are three pretty talented arms to lead the bullpen.

Watching Keegan Akin, and Kremer get their initial Major League starts has been fun.

Both have been hyped as back-of-the-rotation types, but there is some obvious arm talent with both.  And if they are never more than 4th and 5th starters… plenty of value there while they cost nothing.

It’s not hard to imagine the O’s beginning ’21 with 4/5s of the rotation being Means, Cobb, Akin, & Kremer. 

Maybe you aren’t high on Means right now with his current issues. Or you’ll rightfully believe Cobb can stay in the rotation when he proves it. Or you know that Akin and Kremer will take their lumps at some point. All completely fair points. Still, I’m pleased to see a quartet of legitimate ML arms.

Then you have the Baumann, Lowther, Zimmermann, Wells group behind them, with each of those four capable of reaching the Majors in ’21.

Every Oriole fan is excited about the eventual beginning of the Adley Rutschman era, but right now Pedro Severino and Chance Sisco are providing significant production at the Catcher position. Maybe they have some trade value? At the minimum, you can feel solid about the Catching position in ’21, while Rutschman figures to be playing everyday in the Minors.

Ryan Mountcastle has ascended to the Majors, and you don’t have to be a scout to see the bat is going to play.

Anthony Santander’s season might be over prematurely with his oblique injury, but he built off of his ’19 season and has shown he can be a piece of what you are trying to build. The floor there is solid, and there is a higher ceiling than many (most?) expected.

You can question the long-term future of Hanser Alberto, and Renato Nunez with the Orioles; but both have shown by now that they are legitimate Major Leaguers and that gives the O’s options going forward.

There continues to be optimistic reports on Trey Mancini returning at full strength next Spring.

Others?

I’m pretty big believer in Austin Hays. I think he has a lot of talent, and can be the answer in CF for some years to come. There is no denying that ’20 has been a rough go for him. 69 poor at-bats (.519 OPS) followed by an injury that has limited him to 19 games. In ’21, he has to stay on the field and produce. The truth is he’ll likely go to Spring Training next year and have to earn his starting spot.

Give it up to Cedric Mullins for taking advantage of this playing time. His defense (range, jump) is strong. He’s bunting and using his speed. Future wise, I see him more as a 4th OF type vs. a starter, but I’ve been enjoying watching him play.

DJ Stewart is back up and with Santander’s injury, he’s got plenty of ab’s coming to him now. He was 0 for 14 when he was sent back to the Alternative Camp at Bowie, and was giving away some ab’s. But it was 14 ab’s. Can’t make too much out of that. Can’t make too much out of his 3 homers the last two days either, other than they had to feel good.

Stewart is capable of helping the Orioles at 1st, DH, and the OF corners. The tough thing though is figuring out where he fits in long-term. Whether it’s here with the O’s, or elsewhere, Stewart has the ability to help a ML roster.

At the 25 game mark I wrote, “Since Ruiz came back up in the 2nd half last year, he’s shown more pop. Has changed his launch angle. Overall that’s good, he does need to be able to hit for some power. Last year, I thought he had a lot of good ab’s, often without results. I think he’s capable of hitting for some average, if he is willing to utilize all fields, and spray the ball some. Despite his 6 homers, he’s hitting just .217 currently. Also only 2 doubles. I like Ruiz. He plays quality defense. I think he has a chance to be regular over a several year period; but I sense he’s fallen into the trap of trying to pull everything for power. Let’s see what adjustments he can make the rest of the way.”

He’s at .218 / .293 / .429 (.722) right now. A hot or cold 20 game finish won’t change anyone’s thoughts on Ruiz. People – me included – are going to believe he’s a stop-gap option, with the potential upside of being a multi-year starter. He’s also someone that Orioles could be looking to improve on as early as this Winter.

Jose Iglesias is 30 years old, and his 2,800 career ab’s tell a better story of who he is vs. this 91 ab stretch with the Orioles – but picking up the Club Option for ’21 should be an incredibly easy decision for the O’s Front Office.

I’d be fine if the Orioles elected to promote Yusniel Diaz tomorrow. My sense is they are not going to do that. I think Diaz is close though. If he goes to Spring Training and looks good, and spends two months producing at AAA; I think he’ll be up with the Orioles by Memorial Day 2021.

Remaining 2020 Schedule

September 8th – 9th @ New York Mets (2)
September 10th – 13th @ New York Yankees (4)
September 14th – 16th Atlanta Braves (3)
September 17th – 20th Tampa Bay Rays (5)
September 22nd – 24th @ Boston Red Sox (3)
September 25th – 27th @ Toronto Blue Jays (3, In Buffalo)