We’re less than three weeks away from the announcement of the Playoff field, so let’s take a closer look at the hopefuls and where they stand to claim one of the four coveted spots. Keep in mind that any expectations I have regarding how things might unfold are contingent on minimal disruption from COVID-19….and we know how that goes.
Practically a Lock
Alabama, 8-0: Currently #1, Remaining games – Dec 5 @ LSU, Dec 12 vs Arkansas, Dec 19 vs SEC East Champ
The Tide won’t lose to LSU. They’ll probably beat their opponent (likely Florida) in the SEC Championship Game too; but even if they don’t it might not matter unless things really get ugly. Pencil them in as the #1 seed.
Sitting Pretty
Notre Dame, 9-0: Currently #2, Remaining games – Dec 5 vs Syracuse, Dec 19 vs ACC #2 Seed
In their first, and perhaps only season playing football in a conference, the Irish have locked up a spot in the ACC Championship Game. With a win against Clemson already on their ledger, they look like they will be in so long as they take care of easy business against Syracuse. Assuming the likely scenario that they get a rematch with the Tigers on the 19th, they could possibly make the field even with a loss….though an ugly showing might give the committee reason to consider if their double-OT win last month might have been a flukey, Trevor Lawrence-less aberration that knocks them just out of the Top 4. They’d be best served to keep that game at least respectable.
Still Work To Do
Clemson, 8-1: Currently #3, Remaining games – Dec 5 @ VA Tech, TBD
Virginia Tech is all that stands in the way of the Tigers and clinching that rematch with ND. The Tigers should win, but the Hokies have been up and dow….eh, the Tigers will win. The bigger question is whether another loss to Notre Dame, even if it’s another OT nail-biter with Clemson missing a key player or two, could keep them in the Top 4. When healthy, Clemson is clearly one of the four best teams in the country. But no 2-loss team has made the Playoff yet. If the Tigers are to somehow be the first to pull it off, I think they will need some help in the form of losses by the teams just below.
Ohio State, 4-0: Currently #4, Remaining games – Dec 5 @ Mich St, Dec 12 vs Michigan, TBD
What to make of the Buckeyes? Easily the biggest wild card among the realistic contenders. They’ve already had two games cancelled to COVID. Those two remaining games? Both are looking iffy. They paused team activities this week, but restarted and expect to play MSU, even though Head Coach Ryan Day won’t be able to be there. Michigan has already cancelled their game against Maryland for this Saturday. Could The Game get cancelled too? If the Buckeyes, currently siting at 4-0, are still 4-0 two weeks from now, they would technically be ineligible to play in the Big Ten title game because they didn’t play enough games, despite being the conference’s only unbeaten team. I’d expect the B1G to modify that rule if the scenario plays out….they for sure do not want to lose their best, and maybe only shot at getting into the Playoff. End of the day, the Buckeyes not only need to win out, but they simply need to hope they get to play enough games.
Florida, 7-1: Currently #6, Remaining games – Dec 5 @ Tennessee, Dec 12 vs LSU, TBD
The Gators are the only team currently outside the Top 4 who likely control their own destiny to get in. Beat Tennessee and they lock up the SEC East. Beat LSU and they’re a win away from the Playoff. But that win will have to come against Alabama in the SEC Championship. That’s going to be a very tall order, but if there is any team in the conference capable of knocking Alabama off, it’s probably the Gators.
Waiting in the Wings
Texas A&M, 6-1: Currently #5, Remaining games – Dec 5 at Auburn, Dec 12 @ Tennessee
The Aggies have a sneaky-tough matchup at Auburn. But if they win, plus take care of business in Knoxville, they’ll be right there should any of the current Top 4 take a tumble….though as I just mentioned, there is a scenario in which they’d likely get leapfrogged by Florida.
Long Shots
Cincinnati, 8-0: Currently #7, Remaining games – Dec 12 @ Tulsa, Dec 19 AAC Championship
The Bearcats might very well come as close, in terms of CFP ranking, as any G5 team has or will to making the Playoff. They’re an excellent team. Luke Fickell is an outstanding coach….who will be tops on the wish list of a lot of Power 5 teams later this month. But it’s just not meant to be. Here’s hoping they get a really great matchup in a New Year’s Six bowl. They deserve at least that….and so do all fans of college football after this whateveryouwanttocallit of a season.
Miami , 7-1: Currently #10, Remaining games – Dec 5 @ Duke, Dec 12 vs UNC, TBD
The Hurricanes are on here only because if Clemson inexplicably stumbles at VT this weekend, while Miami wins its next two, they would be the ACC’s #2 team and would then play Notre Dame for the conference title. Win that one also and it’s not entirely unthinkable they could leap into the Top 4, though they’d probably need some other help too. Yeah…me neither.
Game of the Week:
#12 Indiana at #16 Wisconsin, 3:30pm ET, ABC (My Pick: Indiana +14)
It’s kind of a light week in terms of big matchups, and this is the only one that features two ranked teams. Both are still alive in their respective divisions, though neither possesses a plausible shot at the Playoff even if all goes their way. Still, it does shape up as a potentially enjoyable game….Indiana’s aerial attack vs Wisconsin’s ground-and-pound. But honestly, it’s the defenses on both teams that are really good, and overlooked. I like the Badgers to win, but the Hoosiers to cover.
(Honorable Mention):
#5 Texas A&M at Auburn, Noon ET ESPN (My Pick: Auburn -7)
The Aggies obviously must win to keep any Playoff hopes alive. The Tigers have been very up-and-down this season. But I have a hunch about them in this one. Look out for an upset (something that’s been pretty lacking this season, IMO).
If the Playoff Was Seeded Today:
For those of you who have been BSL readers over the years, you probably have heard of the Deified Dozen, the Top 12 rankings as determined by our board’s followers of college football. Well, for obvious reasons we have decided to give it a hiatus this year. But I plan to fill this space with my own Top 4 that I would put in the Playoff.
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
I’m a little more forgiving of the Buckeyes lack of games-played and so-so performance against Indiana last time we saw them than the CFP committee is.
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.