The Race for the NBA MVP

A third of the NBA season has passed and the 2020 NBA All-Star Weekend is approaching quickly as March 7th is right around the corner. 

Through the first 20-25 games or so, a lot has happened across the league and a handful of storylines have begun to take shape. Now players and teams alike are preparing themselves for a grueling second half push in pursuit of a chance at the NBA throne. But no storyline right now is bigger than the Race for the MVP trophy. As you look across the league, career-high numbers are being posted on a nightly basis. And with that, a litany of players are starting to make strong cases for their chance at the league’s most prestigious individual accolade. 

But of course, we all know that to be named as the league MVP, this regular season award takes into account more than just individual statistics. The NBA MVP race also takes into consideration things like team success and of course of the perfect media-friendly narrative. 

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

So, with that, here are my Top-5 candidates for the MVP Award thus far based on those criteria. This list will count down from No. 5 to No. 1 so stay tuned till the end to find out who I believe is the frontrunner in a very competitive race to the top of the NBA mountain.

5. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Similar to his former teammate Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry is coming back from a season-ending injury (broken left hand) that sidelined him for the majority of the season. Only playing five games last year, Curry was stuck watching as the Warriors tanked their way into the No.1 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. 

But this season he is at the forefront of one of the biggest comeback stories in the league. This season he is averaging 29.9 points (2^nd in the league behind Bradley Beal), 5.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game while having the 8^th best Player Efficiency Rating in the NBA. He is shooting 49.0% from the floor which is tied for the 3^rd highest of his career along with 43.5% from three and 93.0% from the free throw line. 

Despite the Warriors being the 8^th seed in the West, the biggest point in Curry’s favor is that he is doing all of this with a very young team around him. With Klay Thompson out, Kevin Durant departing, and Draymond Green not being known as much of a scorer, the weight of the offensive responsibilities is heavily on his shoulders. Guys like Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are probably the only other notable players on the team while everyone else is either a rookie or a young player still just getting their footing in the league. 

With the cast of characters that the Warriors are trotting out every night, Curry leading them to the playoffs would be a miracle. What better storyline that 2x MVP Steph Curry returns from injury with his roster completely depleted and still hoists them up into the playoffs? Definitely could be an award winner.

4. Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets

The narrative for Kevin Durant this season is one that easily any basketball fan can gravitate to. Before this season, the last we saw of Durant was his final performance in the 2018 NBA Finals where he would go on to tear his Achilles and unfortunately miss all of last year. Easily he could be viewed as the unanimous Comeback Player of the Year just for the fact that he is coming back from one of sports’ most career-threatening injuries. But what he is doing on the court goes beyond just unprecedented. 

Durant is averaging 29.5 points (3^rd most in his career), 7.4 rebounds (tied for 3^rd most in his career) and 5.2 assists per game. If you look really closely at the stats, they are eerily or maybe even ironically identical to his 2013-14 MVP season where he averaged 32 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists. Somehow, he has not lost a step and maybe even gotten better as he looks to put this Brooklyn organization back on the map. The narrative is also boosted by the fact that the Nets are 3^rd.  in the Eastern Conference behind only the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks. 

Unfortunately, there are two main arguments that can be used against his candidacy for MVP. The first is that he is playing alongside two other MVP caliber players in James Harden and Kyrie Irving which some may argue has a lot more to do with the team’s success than just his individual production. The other argument is his lack of availability on the court in this condensed 72-game season as he has only played in 18 of Brooklyn’s 28 games thus far. Nonetheless, he is doing something that not many people in all of sports have the ability to do for a team that has real championship aspirations. Stats, team success and storylines; He has got it all.

3. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic aka Joker is playing out of his mind so far this season coming off the Denver Nuggets historical postseason run in the NBA bubble. 

He is averaging 27.2 points (7^th in the league), 11.5 rebounds (6^th in the league) and 8.6 assists (5^th in the league). These are all career-highs for him along with a career-high 1.6 steals per game. But the career year for Jokic does not start there. He is shooting 56.7% from the floor (career-best), 39.1% from three (2^nd best of his career behind only his 2017-18 season) and 85.2% from the free throw line (career-high percentage on a career-high 5.4 attempts per game). Jokic is 2^ndin Player Efficiency Rating with some of the best overall shooting splits in the NBA all while being the focal point of the Denver offense. Did I mention that these kinds of numbers are astronomical for a guy who plays Center, a position that has not truly dominated in the NBA for last decade or so?

 If you are not impressed yet, there are two statistics that really show just how influential Jokic is on his team’s success. The first is from Stat Muse who stated that as of January 31^st, Jokic had 93 points in the last five minutes of games within five points this season while shooting a league best 55.4% from the floor in those moments. Meaning when the game gets tight and it comes down to the last few possessions, the man is practically automatic. If you look deeper into the statistics, he leads the league is just about every clutch performance statistic being tracked. 

The other statistic is his On and Off stats per 48 minutes tracking Denver’s Net points per 100 possessions. When Jokic is on the floor, they are +5.5 points. When Jokic is off the floor, they are -4.8. Meaning when Jokic goes to the bench, there is +10.4-point swing in favor of the opposing team. 

This kind of influence from the Center position is unprecedented in today’s guard-centric league and shows just how skilled Jokic truly is. The biggest thing hurting his case is that the Nuggets are currently 7^th in the Western Conference, but Russell Westbrook did win the MVP as a 6^th seed with the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2016 so anything is possible.

2. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

The anointed king of the NBA is on an absolute tear this season as he plays with absolute confidence at age 36. 

So far this season he is averaging 25.6 points (Top-15 in the league), 7.9 rebounds and 7.9 assists (Top-10 in the league). He is doing all this while shooting 55.9% from the floor and 39.1% from three which is his 2^nd best of his career behind only his 2012-13 MVP season where he shot 40.6%. Funny enough, the most impressive thing about the three-point shooting is that he is actually shooting double the number of threes than he did in 2012-13 (3.3 attempts then to a career-high 6.8 attempts now). Somehow his game is continuing to expand as he went from being an athletic freak of nature to now being a cerebral veteran player who has grown with the times. 

But enough with all the statistics. Where James may run away with the MVP is in the narrative category. Let’s go through list of narratives is working with this season:

·      The Lakers are the defending champions in pursuit back-to-back championships

·      He is averaging nearly a triple-double at age 36 in his 18^th season

·      Los Angeles has the 2^nd best record in the West and is 3^rd overall in the NBA

·      Lastly, he has not won one since 2012-13 and probably deserved it a couple of times since then but missed out due to voter’s fatigue.

James is continuing one of the most dominating careers in sports history as he has probably had the longest prime of any NBA player thus far. Outside of maybe only Kevin Durant, James has the most compelling storylines in favor and he also has the stat line to back it up.

1. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

The Big Man is Back people! The NBA has not seen a Center win the coveted league MVP since Class of 2020 Basketball Hall of Famer Tim Duncan won it almost two decades ago back in 2003. But, with the way Joel Embiid is playing so far this season, 2021 might finally be the year. 

This season Embiid is 1^st in the league in Player Efficiency Rating while averaging 29.6 points per game (4^th in the league) and 10.8 rebounds (11^th in the league). He is also having easily the best shooting stretch of his career. He is shooting 54.3 from the floor, 40.0% from three and 85.1% from the free throw line. 

So far Embiid has played in 22 of the Sixers 27 games this season. In those 22 games, Philadelphia is 17-5 and 1-4 in the games he did not play in. Philly is practically unbeatable with Embiid in the lineup and he has the chance to cement himself with an MVP alongside greats like Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal, David Robinson and a few others who were once known to be some of the most dominating forces in NBA history. When you are having a season that puts you in the conversation with players like that, that is narrative enough to put you at the forefront of any MVP discussion.

It is still relatively early in the season and a lot can still happen post-All-Star break with just over 30 games to play by then and the NBA trade deadline still on the table. Players like Jaylen Brown, Paul George, Damian Lillard and others still have a chance to make a real push to put their name in this MVP conversation. But as of right now, it looks like it is going to be extremely difficult to knock any of these guys out of this Top-5.

For More Discussions Related to the NBA MVP race and everything else NBA check me out on the “Hoop Talk Podcast with Jalon Dixon and Ryan Leshko” on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. 

Hoop Talk Podcast with Jalon Dixon and Ryan Leshko: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hoop-talk-podcast-with-jalon-dixon-and-ryan-leshko/id1517911160

You can also check me out on YouTube on the Buckets Only Podcast every week covering all things NBA.

The Buckets Only Podcast on MisFitTV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZbfAoAiuDc&list=PLd-f6v6k1U2_8sNZuPsKtfJKqeoeKrL-Y