3 Up, 3 Down – Spring Training Edition

As we get closer to opening day for the Orioles and the return of my weekly column focusing on the three best and three worst performers on the team I thought it would be prudent to do one for the spring training results. Of course spring training statistics are to be taken with a big grain of salt but they’re not completely meaningless as we’ll see in some cases. Seems like you can’t necessarily play your way onto the team but you can certainly play your way off of it. After such a strange 2020 season where we only had 60 games to work with I’m looking forward to getting back to something at least resembling normal. The minor league season starts in May so be on the look out for a version of this focusing on the Orioles prospects week to week as well. And make sure you listen to our minor league podcast ‘On the Verge’ here!

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

3 Up

Austin Hays – .392/.446/.745 (1.192), 11 R, 4 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 3 SB, 51 AB

Hays has shown flashes of excellence at the tail end of each of the last two seasons but the big question for him has always been will he be able to stay healthy consistently enough. This is a big season for him to cement his position as an everyday outfielder over the next several seasons and he performed this spring like he’s prepared for that. At the start of camp I would’ve said he was the favorite to win the center field job but Cedric Mullins had a chance to steal some playing time from him. Based on the last couple weeks it appears that both of them will get close to everyday at bats. Hays has showed off all five tools, not only batting close to .400 with power but also stealing several bases, making diving catches, and gunning down runners on the bases. I think at this point we can expect to see him get the first at bat of the Orioles season in Boston when we turn on the game on Thursday.

Bruce Zimmermann – 0-1, 4.73 ERA, 13.1 IP, 3 BB, 13 K, 0.98 WHIP

Personally I thought Zimmermann had a real chance to make it onto the Orioles 14 man pitching staff when pitchers and catchers first reported back in February. Last spring before the season was nuked by a global pandemic (hate it when that happens…) I was getting 2019 John Means vibes with him. When the first mention of a potential six man rotation was brought up I thought maybe he could split the sixth starter role with Jorge Lopez in a piggyback type situation. As the spring went on and he continued to spin zeroes while other starter options were faltering it became more and more clear he would start the year in the rotation. Being rewarded for a great spring by being named the third starter in the opening series against the Red Sox was a bit of a surprise but a pleasant one. He finally showed that he is human (and kind of imploded) in the last game of the spring schedule but with his improved velocity and great slider he has a chance to make his case as a long term asset for the Orioles in 2021.

Jorge Lopez – 0-1, 2.75 ERA, 19.2 IP, 7 BB, 17 K, 3 HR, 1.22 WHIP

I’ve been a Jorge Lopez skeptic since the Orioles acquired him last season. I didn’t have an issue taking a flyer on the guy who used to be a top 100 prospect in baseball (#59 on Baseball America’s 2016 list) but he has a career ERA over six over his five years in the majors. He also pitched to a 6.34 ERA over 38.1 innings for the Orioles last year so to me he was going to come into the 2021 as a long man in the bullpen on a relatively short leash. Instead he came into came and pitched very well which combined with Felix Hernandez opting out of his contract and Keegan Akin not making the team led to him being the fourth starter in the rotation. I still imagine he has the flimsiest grasp on  keeping his rotation spot so if he doesn’t continue his success from the spring then he could easily be removed in favor of a guy like Akin or another starting candidate whether it be a veteran like Wade LeBlanc or Adam Plutko or a prospect who has proved he is ready for his shot.

3 Down

Keegan Akin – 0-1, 10.00 ERA, 1 SV, 9 IP, 7 BB, 14 K, 2.44 WHIP

Coming into the spring I had Akin penciled in as the third starter behind John Means and Dean Kremer. Well like I mentioned in the intro, a players performance in the spring isn’t going to force Mike Elias to change course and include him on the opening day roster but obviously the opposite is possible. Akin was never able to find his command and was routinely having innings where he threw 25+ pitches. His stuff is still there from when he impressed at the end of the 2020 season as evidenced by striking out 14 batters over nine innings. But he also walked almost a batter an inning and had to go deep into counts with most batters. His velocity was slightly down from last year but that seems like a case where he is still getting up to speed, literally. He will start the season at the Orioles alternate site in Bowie where hopefully he’ll be able to iron out his issues and be back on the big league club before the minor league season starts in May.

Paul Fry – 1-2, 10.61 ERA, 1 SV, 9.1 IP, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 HR, 1.93 WHIP

Fry had a sneaky good 2020 with a 2.45 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 22 innings during the shortened season. It seemed like he was poised to be the next Mychal Givens or Miguel Castro who proves to be a valuable asset out of the bullpen and is therefore traded to a contending team for a prospect or two. And maybe he still is, spring training is relatively meaningless, but has been getting shelled all month long and only has three strikeouts over eight innings. His still solidly has a role in the bullpen at least to start 2021 but with the barrage of arms getting closer and closer to the major leagues it has reminded me that we shouldn’t get too used to the names and faces of the relief pitchers that are announced to the crowd on opening day as they run down the orange carpet.

Rio Ruiz – .233/.267/.395 (.662), 3 R, 4 doubles, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 43 AB

Ruiz could’ve been replaced on this list by someone who performed worse on a pure numbers basis but he also continued to overwhelm enough for the Orioles to go out and sign an actual major league free agent in Maikel Franco. Ruiz is probably a better fielder at third base than Franco but not enough that he is going to start over a guy who performed well in 2020 (.778 OPS over 223 AB) and is being paid close to $1 million. There is still a hint of upside with Ruiz, he looked great with the glove early in the 2020 season before struggling in that department as the season wore on. He hit into a lot of bad luck (.244 batting average per balls in play) and was barreling the ball more often than in 2019 but he isn’t versatile on defense so it feels like its just a matter of time before he is removed from the roster barring a Franco injury and/or a hot streak that lasts most of the season.