The last time the Orioles had anything approaching an ace starter was, as far as I can tell, 2007. That season, Erik Bedard threw 182 innings, going 13-5, with a 3.16 ERA all good for 5.0 WAR according to FanGraphs. That was the 10th most WAR of any pitcher in baseball. It’s been 13 seasons since and not one has featured an Orioles pitcher in the top 10 in WAR. That could be about to change though, as John Means has entered the party.
The concept of an ace pitcher is a nebulous one. What makes a pitcher an ace? There is no criteria. It’s a bit more like ‘I know it when I see it’ as opposed to anything concrete or easy to define. That said, aces do come out of nowhere, or at least they’re all not always top of the first round guys. What’s more, there isn’t a requirement to throw hard. Hyun Jin Ryu is the ace of the Blue Jays. Is he an “ace” though? Well, he won the Cy Young award last season, so sure, let’s go with that, abbreviated season or not. All we’re doing here is opening a door just a bit, just a hair, so John Means can peak through. Maybe.
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Means has been ace-like if not an actual ace this season. In three of his four starts he’s given up one run or less, and in two of those starts he’s given up the less. He held the Red Sox and Yankees to a combined one run in 11.2 innings at both Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, with nine strikeouts and two walks. After his worst start of the year against Seattle, where he gave up three runs over five innings, he shut the Rangers out for seven innings on three hits, two walks, and nine strikeouts.
It’s an ace-like resume, but we’re talking four starts so far. It’s early in the season both for the team and for the player. What would it take for John Means to be an ace? He’d have to more or less keep doing what he’s been doing for the full season, and then do it again. But he doesn’t have to get better. He is already on pace for about a six win (bWAR) season. That would be one of the best seasons by an Oriole pitcher in the last decade and a half.
He doesn’t have the resume you usually associate with ace-dom. He’s from Kansas and West Virginia University. He doesn’t throw particularly hard. He wasn’t a regular member of a major league rotation until age 26. But he does have four pitches, and he’s a lefty. He does get strikeouts. He limits walks.
Means doesn’t have what you’d call ace stuff. He doesn’t get a huge amount of swings and misses on his pitches, he’s not a spin rate darling, though his fastball does have a good spin rate. According to the numbers, there’s nothing in particular that should make him elite. So maybe pushing the concept of an ace here is folly. Stranger things have happened, for sure, but according to the data, hard hit rate, barrels (as defined by Baseball Savant), other expected-type stats, he’s not in an ace-like area.
But that doesn’t mean Means can’t pitch like an ace. Indeed he has been this season! The question is, as always, how sustainable is it? Any pitcher can have a few good starts in a row. That happens every season, and certainly that’s where Means is now. His underlying numbers are good, but not great, and though he’s clearly been pitching well, there’s nothing to really suggest he’s taken any huge step forward. His strikeouts and walks are roughly what they’ve been during his brief career. He’s doing a good job keeping the ball in the park, but his batted ball numbers throw into question how much of that is on Means and how much is on, shall we say, the baseball gods.
And yet to watch him pitch, he looks so good! I was shocked to see he’s given up some of the hardest contact and some of the most hard hits in baseball. That doesn’t square with what I’ve seen when I’ve watched Means pitch. To see him carve through the Rangers and Red Sox, you’d think he was the sure bet choice to start the All Star Game.
So, can John Means be an ace? It depends how you define it. In a few ways he already is. He’s pitched like one of the best starters in baseball, whether the underlying numbers and metrics buy it or not. Results are results. By another measure of ace-hood, he’s the Orioles best starter so that makes him a quasi-ace at least, though that’s probably not any comfort to Orioles fans reading this.
Squishy definitions aside, whether Means meets any one definition of an ace or not, he’s shown himself to be a good pitcher. What’s more, he’s a good pitcher having a very good season, and the Orioles haven’t had too many of those in a while.
Orioles Analyst
Matthew Kory is a Orioles / MLB Analyst for BSL. He has covered baseball professionally for The Athletic, Vice Sports, Sports On Earth, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. He lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife, two boys, and his cats, Mini Squeaks and The President. Co-Host of The Warehouse.