NBA: Eastern Conference First Round Preview

he moment we have all been waiting for has finally arrived: The 2021 NBA Playoffs. All the games, the developing storylines and the debates all leading up to the momentous occasion.

In probably the most parody riddled NBA season in recent memory, this may be one of the most anticipated postseasons in league history. With the conclusion of the NBA Play-In tournament the brackets are officially finalized and the road to the Larry O’Brien trophy begins.

In this article we will be looking at the first round in the Eastern Conference as I make my prediction for each series’ result based on key factors like roster construction, individual matchups and play styles.

With that, here are my breakdowns for all four series of the opening round in the Eastern Conference.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Philadelphia 76ers (1) vs. Washington Wizards (8)

Philadelphia 76ers

Players to Watch:

Joel Embiid

2021 Stats – 28.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game on 51.3% shooting from the field, 37.7% from three and 85.9% from the free throw line.

Ben Simmons

2021 Stats – 14.3 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists along with 1.6 steals per game while shooting 55.7% from the floor and 61.3% from the free throw line.

3 Keys to the Series:

1. Let Joel Embiid Dominate

This point is very simple because Embiid has been on an MVP tear all season and now he starts off the 2021 Playoffs with a series tailor made for him to succeed.

Whether it is Robin Lopez or Daniel Gafford guarding Embiid for the Wizards, Embiid has both the skill and size advantage to dominate using his physicality.

If Embiid continues to dominate on the low block rather than falling in love with the three ball, there is nobody on Washington’s roster that can contain Embiid.

2. Rely on your Elite Perimeter Defenders

Philadelphia was the 6^th best team in the NBA in opponents points per game and 2^nd in defensive rating this season for a reason.

Yes, Joel Embiid was elite as a rim defender, but this defensive success also has a lot to do with their perimeter guys locking up on the outside. Ben Simmons, Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle all are switchable perimeter defenders that help in taking away a team’s ability to hurt them from the inside and lead them to driving into a waiting Embiid.

Considering Washington’s best players are perimeter players, the defensive capability of these three will be huge in containing the Wizards’ offense.

3. Play at your Pace, Not Washington’s

If it is up to the Wizards, they would like this to be an up and down series full of transition baskets and quick back-and-forth possessions. Hence why they were 1^st in the league in pace of play this season.

Philly on the other hand was near middle of the pack at 11^th and they want to remain on that kind of pace in this series. This is a series where the 76ers should slow the ball down and simplify the game by playing through Embiid.

X-Factor: Philly needs consistent play from a second/third option, whether that is Tobias Harris or even a guy like Seth Curry who has had big playoffs series in the past.

We know what Joel Embiid will do, but the rest of the supporting cast will need to follow suit in order for Philly to make a run at the championship.

Washington Wizards

Players to Watch:

Russell Westbrook

2021 Stats – 22.2 points, 11.5 rebounds and 11.7 assists per game on 43.9% shooting from the floor, 31.5% from three and 65.6% from the free throw line.

Bradley Beal

2021 Stats – 31.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game on 48.5% shooting from the floor, 34.9% from three and 88.9% from the free throw line.

3 Keys to the Series:

1. Lean on the elite talent of your Backcourt

No offense to the Washington Wizards, but they honestly do not have anybody else reliable enough to turn to in the playoff series other than the duo of Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal.

These two accounts for over half of the team’s offensive production (53.3 out 116.6 points as a team). These two guys have to play their A-game to even stand a chance because the deck is already stacked against them.

2. Try to turn every game into a shoot out

As mentioned before, the Wizards were No. 1 in pace of play this season so they want to get out and run.

Washington’s style is not necessarily conducive to winning in the Playoffs considering things tend to slow down and get more physical in the postseason.

But conducive or not, their play style is how they thrive and what made them the third highest scoring team in the NBA. So, they have to lean on that and try to make it a back-and-forth game.

3. Let Embiid get his, take the supporting cast out of the game

Embiid is a Top-3 MVP candidate for a reason and as far as Washington is concerned, they do not have anyone on the roster who can hang with him.

But they can schematically focus on trying to take the other guys like Tobias Harris and Seth Curry out of the game to help slow the 76ers down.

Now they would be taking a gamble with this because this could lead to Embiid averaging 40+ a night in the series, but that is better than the 76ers having four or five guys average double figures. Cause then we are probably going to see a handful of blowouts at Washington’s expense.

X-Factor: The health of Bradley Beal is pivotal if Washington even remotely wants to go the distance in this series.

After clinching the 8^th seed in the victory against the Indiana Pacers, Beal called himself “the one-legged bandit.” As funny as this may sound, both Beal and the Wizards are aware that he will need two healthy legs if he is going to help Washington pull off the upset.

He obviously cannot get any healthier, but his ability to play through pain and still be relatively elite offensively is going to be a big factor in whether the Wizards get swept or make this series competitive.

Pick in the series: Philadelphia 76ers in 5

Brooklyn Nets (2) vs. Boston Celtics (7)

Brooklyn Nets

Players to Watch:

Kevin Durant

2021 Stats – 26.9 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game on 53.7% shooting from the floor, 45% from three and 88.2% from the free throw line in only 35 games played

James Harden

2021 Stats – 24.6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 10.9 assists per game on 47.1% shooting from the field, 36.6% from three and 85.6% from the free throw line in only 36 games as a member of the Brooklyn Nets

Kyrie Irving

2021 Stats – 26.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game on 50.6% shooting from the field, 40.2% from three and 92.2% from the free throw line.

3 Keys to the Series:

1. Overcome the lack of continuity and just hoop

The headline for the Brooklyn Nets heading into the postseason is centered around their Big 3’s lack of time on the floor together and for good reason.

Only playing eight games together is not very much of a sample size to really get a beat on how three high-volume scorers can coexist night in and night out on the floor in a winning effort.

Nonetheless, these are three of the top-15 offensive talents in the game today and maybe even in modern NBA history.

It may be a Playoff series, but these three guys just need to play like three guys in an open gym run and just do their thing.

Kyrie Irving and James Harden showed in stretches without Durant that they could coexist in the backcourt in winning efforts. And Durant easily has one of the most translatable offensive skill sets in the NBA so the Nets should have strong belief that these three can get it done.

2. Throw multiple bodies at Jayson Tatum defensively

Jaylen Brown as we all know is out for the rest of the season due to injury and Kemba Walker has had a bit of a down season this year after entering the season injured. This leaves Jayson Tatum as the sole lead offensive threat for the Boston Celtics who were already struggling in the depth department.

So, between Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and maybe even Durant for stretches, Brooklyn needs to pressure Tatum as much as possible and force him into tough shots or to flat out give up the basketball entirely.

Boston goes as Tatum goes. Take out Tatum and the rest of the Celtics’ roster is not talented enough to go toe-to-toe with the offensive firepower of the Nets.

3. Do not sleepwalk into the series and underestimate the Boston Celtics

We all know that the Boston Celtics are at a talent deficit, so you know that the Brooklyn Nets are aware of their significant advantage over them.

But that should not make Brooklyn feel so comfortable that they come into this series thinking that they can coast.

Boston is well coached and does have players like Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker and even Evan Fournier off the bench who can all get hot and maybe even help take a game off the Nets.

Brooklyn needs to take this team out early or Tatum and the Celtics will start getting confident which could spell trouble for the Nets.

X-Factor: Is Kevin Durant still capable of being the head of the snake for a championship caliber team? His play in this series will give us a glimpse of whether or not he can still be that Playoff scoring assassin of the past.

Boston Celtics

Players to Watch:

Jayson Tatum

2021 Stats – 26.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game on 45.9% shooting from the floor, 38.6% from three and 86.8% from the free throw line.

Kemba Walker

2021 Stats – 19.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game on 42% shooting from the field, 36% from three and 89.9% from the free throw line.

3 Keys to the Series:

1. Jayson Tatum cannot afford to have an off night

You remember how only a few days ago Jayson Tatum had to put together a 50-point virtuoso to take down the Wizards for the 7^th seed?

Well, if the Celtics want any chance of beating Brooklyn, Tatum is going to need a lot of 50+ point performances to give Boston a chance.

Now realistically this does not seem very possible, but if he does not average at least 30 points a game in this series, the Celtics will get swept in this series. Book it.

2. Kemba Walker must be able to go blow for blow with at least one of either Kyrie Irving or James Harden

Kemba Walker has had the luxury of being third banana all season behind Tatum and Jaylen Brown while nursing a knee injury. But now with the bright lights of the Playoffs on him, he is going to have to step up in a major way to help fend off the three-headed monster in Brooklyn.

He alone cannot match the offensive output of the Nets’ backcourt together, but he at least needs to offset one of them.

Tatum has the skill to hang with Durant. If Kemba can balance out by matching or outplaying either Irving or Harden, then it opens the floodgates for Marcus Smart and Evan Fournier to potentially put together a combined effort that matches Brooklyn’s third option of the trio.

3. Attack the soft interior defense of the Brooklyn Nets

Blake Griffin is not an elite rim defender. DeAndre Jordan is not the hyper athlete in the middle that he used to be. Jeff Green is listed at Center, but he is only 6-foot-8. So basically, Brooklyn does not have much rim defense leaving them vulnerable in paint.

Boston needs to be attacking the rim at all times, play downhill and guys like Robert Williams and Tristan Thompson need to be active on the glass. The soft middle of the Nets’ defense has been their glaring kryptonite since the beginning of the season.

Considering they do not have many other weaknesses, this significant hole in their personnel is one that the Celtics should look to exploit all series long.

X-Factor: The Boston Celtics may be at a talent disadvantage against the Brooklyn Nets, but they do have the upper hand in the coaching matchup.

Winning the duel between veteran head coach Brad Stevens and new Brooklyn head coach Steve Nash will be critical as Boston will need to out scheme Brooklyn to have a chance in this series.

Pick in the series: Brooklyn Nets in 5

Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs. Miami Heat (6)

Milwaukee Bucks

Players to Watch:

Giannis Antetokounmpo

2021 Stats – 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game on 56.9% shooting from the floor, 30.3% from three and 68.5% from the free throw line.

Jrue Holiday

2021 Stats – 17.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game on 50.3% shooting from the floor, 39.2% from three and 78.7% from the free throw line.

Khris Middleton

2021 Stats – 20.4 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game on 47.6% shooting from the floor, 41.4% from three and 89.8% from the free throw line.

3 Keys to the Series:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo must rise to the occasion

To put it simply: Giannis Antetokounmpo must translate being an MVP caliber player during the regular season to the postseason in the biggest moments.

He cannot be relegated to the dunker spot. He needs to continue to show that he is at least a threat from beyond the arc.

But most of all, he needs to be that dominant physical specimen that we see dominating in the regular season and do it with the same effort when the games matter most. Period point blank.

2. Time for the duo of Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton to prove that they can be second/third options as members of a championship caliber team

For years both Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have been underrated as both two-way players and legitimate secondary/tertiary scoring options. The media continues to disrespect them and sometimes act as if it is Giannis Antetokounmpo all by his lonesome as if Middleton is not a multi-time All Star and Holiday is not one of the league’s top two-way guards.

This trio of Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Holiday is locked up with Milwaukee for the foreseeable future. But, to validate Milwaukee’s decision to heavily invest in Antetokounmpo’s supporting cast, these two guys need to show up and show out. This team cannot afford to fall in the first round when accounting for all the money and resources they have invested into making this team a real championship contender.

3. Put all your practice to good use and implement what you have learned coming off your first regular season of experimenting with a defensive philosophy predicated on switching.

Coach Mike Budenholzer has been criticized for leaning too much into his own personal preference to be a zone-man defensive team in the past. Couple that with what seemed to be an inability to conduct in-game and in-series adjustments and you have a Milwaukee team that continues to get outplayed in the postseason.

Well, this season they experimented with the defensive philosophy of switching on defense and embracing the defensive versatility of their three lead guys. They even picked up PJ Tucker who has more than his fair share of experience in a switching defense coming from a Houston Rockets team that once upon a time played him at Center despite him being only 6-foot-5.

Now in the rankings, this experiment regressed their regular season ranking from 1^st in defensive rating last year down to 10^th this season.

But the reps they got throughout the season should be beneficial to the Bucks in the postseason and hopefully they can build upon it by playing with higher urgence due to the high stakes attached to each game.

X-Factor: This is a series where the newly acquired PJ Tucker can truly show his worth as the anchor to this new switching defense by leaning on his experience in the system.

The newcomers in Holiday and Tucker will be the key to this defense working. If they can hold this defense down, the Bucks could be virtually unstoppable on the run to potential Eastern Conference Finals appearance.

Miami Heat

Players to Watch:

Jimmy Butler

2021 Stats – 21.5 points, 6.9 rebounds and 7.1 assists along with 2.1 steals per game while shooting 49.7% from the field and 86.3% from the free throw line.

Bam Adebayo

2021 Stats – 18.7 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists along with 1.2 steals and a block per game while shooting 57.0% from the field and 79.9% from the free throw line.

3 Keys to the Series:

1. Miami needs Jimmy Butler to remain offensively aggressive at all times

This is pretty self-explanatory if you are a Miami Heat fan or someone that has watched a lot of the Heat this season.

Jimmy Butler is the heartbeat of this team and when he is aggressive, it gives the rest of the team the green light to be in attack mode.

Butler has this tendency sometimes of being passive and over embracing the “great teammate” label by working too hard to get others involved. Butler cannot afford to be passive in this series or Milwaukee will punish the Heat.

Jimmy Butler is what makes Miami a championship contender and they will need him fully engaged in order to win this series.

2. Bam Adebayo vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo will easily be the one-on-one matchup of the series that will have the most impact on the end result of this series

Bam Adebayo made it apparent on Twitter that he found it laughable that he was snubbed as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. What better way to prove the doubters wrong than to lock up the league’s reigning MVP in a high stakes playoff series?

Haha.

— 13am Adebayo💥 (@Bam1of1) May 21, 2021

Adebayo is already one of the rising talents at the Power Forward/Center position. His stock as a potential Top-5 talent at the position will only continue to rise if he can win one-on-one matchups against some of the NBA’s elite big men like Embiid and Antetokounmpo.

This matchup between Adebayo and Antetokounmpo will be very telling as to which one of these All-Star big men is truly built to be a centerpiece for a championship caliber season.

3. Find out who the third scoring option is for this team behind Butler and Adebayo

Going into this series, it feels safe to believe that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will be up to the task of playing up their competition to pull off the opening round upset. The question is whether or not the rest of the Heat role players are ready to take on the challenge as well.

Andre Iguodala has not been the same guy since being a member of the dynastic Golden State Warriors.

The young gun and NBA Twitter darling Tyler Herro has not built upon his performance in Miami’s run to the NBA Finals last season.

Victor Oladipo is out for the rest of the season and Goran Dragic has fallen back down to just being a serviceable bench scorer.

Someone has to take the reins as that third option to back up Jimmy and Bam. Milwaukee has their Big 3. Miami needs a Big 3 of their own.

X-Factor: Can Goran Dragic duplicate his play from last postseason as the team’s leading scorer in the Playoffs or was that an outlier based on circumstances of the Bubble?

Basically, the question is simple: Are the Heat going to get the Goran Dragic of old or are they just going to get an old Goran Dragic?

Pick in the Series: Milwaukee Bucks in 6

New York Knicks (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)

New York Knicks

Players to Watch:

Julius Randle

2021 Stats – 24.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game on 45.6% shooting from the field, 41.1% from three and 81.1% from the free throw line.

RJ Barrett

2021 Stats – 17.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game on 44.1% shooting from the floor, 40.1% from three and 74.6% from the free throw line.

3 Keys to the Series:

1. Ride with your guys for good, bad and indifferent

No, the New York Knicks do not have anyone that you would consider a Top-10 or even a Top-15 player in today’s league but they have a handful of guys that are punching above their weight this season.

Julius Randle became a first time All-Star this season and is a leading candidate for the Most Improved Player award.

RJ Barrett has taken significant strides in year two as a scorer, three-point shooter and has stepped up defensively. Derrick Rose continues to beat the odds by being one of the league’s top Sixth men. Even rookie guard Immanuel Quickley is a guy who has definitely outplayed being taken at the bottom of the first round out of Kentucky with the 25^th pick in the 2021 NBA draft.

This team has significantly overachieved and are at least a season ahead of schedule in terms of becoming a Playoff team. So, at the end of the day, coach Tim Thibodeau needs to trust these guys and lean on these guys to play up to the challenge.

2. Knicks need to get consistent production from their perimeter players

This is in reference to three guys in particular: Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett.

Rose and Quickley combined for an average of 26.3 points per game coming off the bench for the Knicks. New York will need around this same production if not more to combat the fire power that the Hawks will be getting from Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

Barrett has been one of the team’s lead decision makers and will be on the floor a ton. Especially considering he was Top-3 in the league in minutes played this season alongside teammate Julius Randle and MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic.

He has been this team’s second-best player all year and the Playoffs are not the time to get passive and fall off the saddle.

These three have to provide sufficient backup to Randle to give New York a chance to win the franchise’s first Playoff series in what feels like an eon.

3. You take out Trae Young, you take down the Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young is everything offensively for the Hawks. He gives them 20+ points a night. He sets others up and finds his teammates in the right spots, hence the near ten assists per game average. Young runs the show and is the engine that makes Atlanta go.

New York needs to be able to hold down Young and force the “others” to beat them.

The Knicks need to lock up on defense by throwing multiple bodies at Young. Then they need to make him work on the defensive end himself by running a handful of offensive possessions through Rose, Quickley, Barrett and maybe even Elfrid Payton.

Like the title to this point says, if the Knicks can contain Trae Young then they control the fate of this series.

X-Factor: Can RJ Barrett rise to the occasion under the bright lights of the Playoffs as the No. 2 option?

Atlanta Hawks

Players to Watch:

Trae Young

2021 Stats – 25.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 9.4 assists per game on 43.8% shooting from the field, 34.3% from three and 88.6% from the free throw line.

Clint Capela

2021 Stats – 15.2 points, 14.3 rebounds and 0.8 assists along with two blocks per game while shooting 59.4% from the field and 57.3% from the free throw line.

3 Keys to the Series:

1. Trae Young cannot afford to rely on this newfound offensive style of relying on the refs

There has been a lot of the Trae Young slander this season. This has stemmed from his unattractive, James Harden-like style of relying on drawing contact and being bailed by the referees to fuel his offensive production.

Young is one of the league’s most prolific shooters and facilitators and the Hawks are better when he plays like it.

The refs are a lot more prone to swallowing their whistle in the Playoffs and he should learn from Harden that relying on getting calls in the postseason is only a recipe for disaster.

Young needs to play his game and show why people just a season ago started to believe that he is already a Top-5 talent at his position.

2. Clint Capela must continue to be a force inside on both offense and defense

Clint Capela is having a career year in his first official season with the Atlanta Hawks as he is averaging career-highs in rebounds and blocks.

Capela is used to having an elite facilitator in his corner hence why he and James Harden were once considered to be one of if not the league’s best pick-and-roll duo. Now he has Trae Young who might even be better as a pick-and-roll and passer and Capela has not lost a beat.

Now he is listed day to day with an Achilles injury, but if he plays, he will be playing a critical role as both a rim defender and a lob threat on the interior.

3. Free agent pickups Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic need to play up to the hype

In the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks arguably had the best offseason of any other team in the conference.

Danilo Gallinari was coming off of being offensive focal point as part of an Oklahoma City Thunder that overachieved in the West last season. Bogdan Bogdanovic was one of the most sought-after free agents this past offseason.

Rajon Rondo was coming off an NBA title with the Los Angeles Lakers and he got flipped for Lou Williams who is universally renowned as one of the NBA’s best sixth men in league history.

But not these guys need to play up to the hype and be the backup that Trae Young needs to help the Hawks move on to the next round.

X-Factor: John Collins is in a contract year and despite his solid play this season, there is still a lot of uncertainty about his future as a member of the Atlanta Hawks.

His performance in this series could be the deciding factor as to whether or not Atlanta is willing to throw him a max contract or simply let him walk.

Pick in the Series: Atlanta Hawks in 7