Down on the Farm – June 1, 2021

Welcome to ‘Down on the Farm’, a minor league spin-off of my weekly article ‘3 Up, 3 Down’. Every week I will highlight the three hottest and three coldest players in the Orioles minor league system from the previous week. Hopefully this will help in keeping track of the progress of the prospects playing for the Norfolk Tide, Bowie Baysox, Aberdeen Ironbirds, and Delmarva Shorebirds. Also be sure to check out my threads on the message board that are tracking both pitching and hitting statistics for our prospects.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

On Fire

Adley Rutschman – .500/.600/1.000 (1.600), 4 R, 1 double, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB, 2 K, 14 AB (AA Bowie)

Rutschman blew up at the end of a rain shortened week for all of the affiliates. Bowie had a double header on Sunday and Adley went 5-6 with two homeruns, seven RBI, a walk, and a sacrifice fly to the warning track. He is really getting comfortable at the plate now with a 186 wRC+, a 21.8% walk rate, and a strikeout rate under 20% (19.8). I know its exciting that Grayson Rodriguez is entering the Baysox rotation this week, joining Adley and DL Hall as the top three prospects in the Orioles system forming a triumvirate of the future, but I wonder how much longer Rutschman will be there if he is going to be dominating at every aspect of the game. I know him getting game reps with the top pitchers in the organization is paramount as is him accumulating at bats no matter the level but at some point he is going to need to be challenged just like the group of players recently promoted. I wouldn’t expect it to be before the fourth of July but regardless, its great to see Adley living up to the lofty expectations hoisted upon him. I would be remiss not to mention Cadyn Greniers’ week as well after I pronounced him dead as a prospect. He hit a homerun in three straight games, raising his batting average by 80 points and his OPS from .428 to .753. Maybe he felt the competition of Joey Ortiz being promoted to Bowie from A+ Aberdeen but whatever it is, I’m happy to see I was wrong – at least for the time being.

JD Mundy – .333/.400/.611 (1.011), 4 R, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 18 AB (A Delmarva)

Speaking of the group of players promoted over the past week in order to get challenged more, Mundy is one of those guys. Just like Adley Rutschman he has a 186 wRC+, tied for second in the entire minor league system (behind only Jordan Westburg, who was also promoted from A Delmarva to A+ Aberdeen). He is a power hitting first baseman signed as an undrafted free agent out of Duke following the 2020 amateur draft. Keep in mind that last year’s draft was only five rounds due to the high school and college seasons being cut short because of the Covid pandemic so he is still a player who would’ve likely gone in the top 10 or 15 rounds under normal circumstances. With a 19.1% walk rate and 14.6% strikeout rate, low A ball pitchers just weren’t fooling his advanced approach for the level. He may not hit over .300 for Aberdeen but his power is legit to all fields as long as he can put the bat on the ball. He has an all fields approach that should play in any ballpark. I’m curious to see how his promotion effects Andrew Daschbach’s playing time for the Ironbirds and who replaces Mundy at first base for the Shorebirds.

Kevin Smith – 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 1.00 WHIP (AA Bowie)

The Bowie rotation is taking turns showing up on this spot of the list each week much the same way they’re taking turns taking the mound for the Baysox. I could’ve easily pick DL Hall for the second time after he threw five scoreless innings and struck out eight batters, giving him a 2.14 ERA on the season and 39 strikeouts over 21 innings, but then I wouldn’t be able to highlight Kevin Smith’s underrated season. He may not strike guys out at the rate studs like Hall, Grayson Rodriguez, and Kyle Bradish have been but he has a 1.04 ERA over 17 innings with 22 strikeouts and nine walks. He is a guy who I penciled in to start the season with AAA Norfolk in my offseason roster prediction article but he’ll be joining that rotation soon at the rate he’s going and also the rate the pitchers in Aberdeen’s rotation are forcing their way up to Bowie. Smith is another finesse lefty along the lines of Bruce Zimmermann, Zac Lowther, and Alexander Wells. With Lowther and Wells off to poor starts to the season he has a chance to leapfrog them in the pecking order. The jump from AA to AAA appears to be a big one over the past few years so that would be a good test to see how he compares to those guys.

Ice Cold

Terrin Vavra – .125/.333/.250 (.583), 2 R, 1 triple, 2 RBI, 16 AB (AA Bowie)

A week or two ago I was calling Vavra a God amongst men and imagining his inevitable induction into the baseball hall of fame. And now here we are. Two weeks ago his batting average was .432 with an OPS of 1.364 and now they sit at .265 and .917 respectively. The good news is that despite going two for his last 31 he still has an OPS over .900. That’s in large part to his ability to work a walk despite being ice cold which is certainly a nice skill to have and one that the Orioles are severely lacking at the major league level. His advanced approach at the plate has led him to a 159 wRC+, I can’t wait to see how it looks when he breaks out of what I can only assume is the worst slump of his professional career. That promotion to AAA Norfolk that I was so sure about is at least delayed but at least he gets to play on a loaded Bowie team that is only adding talent and winning three quarter of the time they play.

Jordan Cannon – .133/.235/.133 (.369), 3 R, 2 RBI, 15 AB (A Delmarva)

Cannon came bursting out of the gates this season like he was shot out of a… gun. With four homeruns in the first six games and an OPS of 1.477 there was nowhere to go but down. It has gone down but he is still a solid offensive catcher who provides a lot of value to a winning Delmarva Shorebirds ballclub. He is still performing 35% above league average but the strikeouts are a worry (29.3% of the time) and the fact that a guy with the last name of Cannon doesn’t throw many guys out on the basepaths is disconcerting. Not every prospect is going to force their way up the ladder after only a month or two of the season like the way a lot of Orioles prospects have. There is nothing wrong with Cannon spending all of 2021 with Delmarva and starting 2022 with Aberdeen. Catchers typically develop at a slower rate than other position players due to the physically and mentally demanding aspects of the position. A 10^th round pick signed to underslot value, Cannon will have to prove himself every step of the way.

Isaac Mattson – 0-0, 21.60 ERA, 1.2 IP, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 3.60 WHIP (AAA Norfolk)

I have been waiting since the 2020 season started to see Mattson work his way into the big league bullpen and become a staple there. He was never given the opportunity last season which I assumed was because of the shortened 60 game schedule. But after a rough spring training this season, a 15.75 ERA in only four innings for AAA Norfolk, and a very brief one appearance stint with the O’s for his major league debut – my confidence is wavering. He has given up a staggering 13 hits over those four AAA innings for a .542 batting average against. Batters are hitting the ball in the air much more than his previous minor league experience. I’m trying to keep the very small sample size in perspective but the early returns combined with the decision to not turn to him at the major league level so far tells me the organization thinks he at least still has things to work on. I’m not sure why he is suddenly not missing bats but I have faith in the Orioles minor league coaches to find a way to fix it if it is something that can be fixed. Luckily for Mike Elias the rest of the pitchers received in return for Dylan Bundy in the trade with the Angels are having early success. In particular Kyle Bradish who had a great second start with AAA Norfolk, tossing five innings of one run ball with five strikeouts and only one walk.