3 Up, 3 Down – June 7, 2021

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week comes after series against the Twins and the Indians.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

3 Up

Cedric Mullins – .542/.607/1.083 (1.690), 7 R, 2 double, 1 triple, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 24 AB

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Mullins had one of the best weekends in Orioles history. In the series against Cleveland he was 9-12 with a double and three homeruns. And that double was really a triple but MLB’s replay system is a total farce. Mullins hit a ball to the right center field wall and looked toast when he rounded second but he used an incredible swim move on a dive into third base to avoid the tag. Only the umpire called him out. Upon review there was clear evidence that his hand snuck into the bag before the tag but God forbid the umpire have his feelings hurt for getting a call wrong so they decided to stay with the call on the field. If all the replay system is going to do is waste Rob Manfred’s precious time of play then they should just get rid of it. Luckily it didn’t matter as the Orioles went on to win Sunday’s game 18-5 and it clearly didn’t bother Mullins as he had a stretch of nine straight at bats with a hit and reached base in 11 consecutive plate appearances. If that wasn’t enough he also made several brilliant catches in center field but that’s nothing new. He is in the 98^th percentile when it comes to outs above average on defense and the 81^st percentile in outfielder jump. Mullins is such a great story of resilience and not giving up on yourself and its just getting better now that he is proving that it wasn’t just a great start to the 2021 season. Its looking more and more like he has made sustainable changes at the plate to be a part of the next winning Orioles team.

Ryan Mountcastle – .458/.480/1.083 (1.563), 7 R, 3 doubles, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 24 AB

It feels so good to type Mountcastle’s name into the ‘3 Up’ column. I feel like Orioles fans have been waiting all season for him to have a week like this. He still isn’t walking but that will never be the kind of hitter he is. He was such a highly thought of prospect because although he is a free swinger he has an innate ability to square up the ball and hit it hard. He is a natural hitter. He proved that in his cup of coffee last year and he is once again proving it after a sophomore slump over the first two months of this season. On Saturday he hit a ball nearly 115 mph that hit the third baseman’s glove and he still ended up on second base with a double and then in the same game he turned on a high fastball and crushed it at 111 mph for a 447 foot homerun. Since the calendar turned to June he has raised his batting average from .226 to .254 and his OPS from .628 to .729. And just like that he is a league average hitter with an OPS+ of 100. This doesn’t mean that he has permanently turned a corner or anything but it does lean towards Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde making the right decision by letting him work through his slump at the major league level. Once again player development isn’t a linear progression but Ryan Mountcastle still looks like a big part of the Orioles future.

Jorge Lopez – 1-0, 3.27 ERA, 11 IP, 9 H, 5 BB, 9 K, 1.27 WHIP

Lopez pitched Sunday and got the win thanks to an incredible amount of run support but he honestly wasn’t all that sharp. He only struck out two batters over five innings with three walks. He gave up three runs on four hits including a homerun. He made this list because of his start on Memorial Day when he pitched six innings of one run ball with seven strikeouts to only two walks. That was the exception to the rule that he can’t make it past the second time through the opposing order. He has been excellent through the first four innings with a 2.93 ERA on the season. Unfortunately from the fifth inning on he has a 16.20 ERA. He still screams reliever to me (and everyone else) but its understandable why he continues to get starts for this team. Matt Harvey has turned out to be who we thought he was, John Means is on the IL with a minor shoulder injury, and the rookies in the rotation have been inconsistent at best. Maybe the Orioles think he can build better trade value with teams if they think they can move him to the bullpen and find instant success rather than proving that theory wrong on their own. He has the weapons to be a capable back end of the bullpen reliever but he has also pitched in relief in the past and struggled in that role as well.

3 Down

John Means – 0-1, 27.00 ERA, 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 4.50 WHIP

Means has landed himself on the IL for the third consecutive season. Once again its his throwing shoulder giving him problems. It is apparently nothing serious, same as the last times, with the MRI coming back clean and Means himself seeming more annoying than worried but you could feel Orioles’ fans collectively holding their breaths when he was taken out of the game on Saturday. His velocity was still there but obviously the command wasn’t since he gave up two homeruns and a single within the first five batters. That makes it four straight games where he has given up two homeruns and the sixth time it has happened overall this season. That has been his only real issue on the year as he still has a WHIP of 0.83. He is in the top 10% of baseball in walk percentage, doesn’t give up hard contact compared to his peers (86^th percentile), and is above average in almost every metric. The biggest cause for concern isn’t so much will he be able to come back as soon as possible, maybe missing a start or two, and getting back to being as effective as he was beforehand. He has been able to do that in the past. But is this something that is going to happen every year moving forward? And is this something that will deter Mike Elias from signing him to an extension? Or could it make it more likely at a cheaper price if the team isn’t concerned long term? I don’t even want to say it but how does this effect his trade prospects? All interesting questions to consider as we anxiously await his return to the rotation.

Maikel Franco – .208/.208/.375 (.583), 3 R, 1 double, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 24 AB

What are we doing here? There has been a lot of debate on Orioles Twitter about how good of a job Mike Elias has done considering the failings at the major league level. Personally I think he has been exceptional at building up the talent in the farm system. In less than three years he has turned the Orioles from a bottom five farm system into a top five farm system, he has (literally) built us from nothing into real players in the international market, and has improved the player development and coaching to an incredible degree. I think the team is set up to be a contender from 2023 onward in a serious way. But at the same time most fans don’t pay attention to that stuff under the surface. They watch the major league games that are on TV every day. And that product is lacking. The Freddy Galvis signing following the trade of Jose Iglesias has worked out great but clearly the rotation could’ve used more depth and second base is a vacant hole after the Yolmer Sanchez signing didn’t work out. Third base is getting close to that designation as well even though I don’t think anyone would’ve expected Franco to be this bad at the plate. He isn’t striking out (89^th percentile K% with 14.7%) but he isn’t hitting the ball hard and he’s not hitting it in the air. I’m sure they will keep running him out there because there are really no alternatives. Rylan Bannon is hurt and was struggling mightily before that, Rio Ruiz is gone, and Tyler Nevin would probably be worse than Franco over there defensively.

Shawn Armstrong – 0-0, 13.50 ERA, 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 1.50 WHIP

After a great shortened 2020 season it all fell apart for Armstrong this year. Maybe if last year was full length we would’ve found out that he just got off to a great start and he wouldn’t have been tendered a contract heading into the 2021 season. Regardless, he started the year on the paternity list after the birth of his son and was greeted unfairly by the Yankees in his first game back. It just never got much better from there. He still has elite fastball spin (98^th percentile) but his slider and cutter were getting annihilated leading to his eventual designation for assignment over the weekend. I doubt any team is going to claim him so there is still a chance that he stays with the organization and is able to work on things at AAA Norfolk. After a strong start to the season the Orioles bullpen has been a revolving door of relievers being beat up lately so you never know but I would think if they were going to add a reliever that isn’t already on the 40 man roster it would be a new face that they brought in over the offseason like Manny Barreda, Marcos Diplan, or Fernando Abad.