Down on the Farm – June 21, 2021

Welcome to ‘Down on the Farm’, a minor league spin-off of my weekly article ‘3 Up, 3 Down’. Every week I will highlight the three hottest and three coldest players in the Orioles minor league system from the previous week. Hopefully this will help in keeping track of the progress of the prospects playing for the Norfolk Tide, Bowie Baysox, Aberdeen Ironbirds, and Delmarva Shorebirds. Also be sure to check out my threads on the message board that are tracking both pitching and hitting statistics for our prospects.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

On Fire

Ryan McKenna – .333/.448/.708 (1.157), 7 R, 3 doubles, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 24 AB (AAA Norfolk)

While I support the decision to have McKenna be a bench player for the Orioles while guys like Austin Hays and Anthony Santander are injured, he projects to be a fringe starter at best and a fourth outfielder/role player most likely, its good to see him go down and have success getting everyday at bats with AAA Norfolk. He wasn’t playing much while he was with the big league team so it was hard to get a good read on where he was as a player with sporadic plate appearances. We know he is fast with good defense in the outfield, it doesn’t take much to see that, but he can still continue to develop some gap power and a great approach at the plate. Over 61 plate appearances with Norfolk he has a .918 OPS led by a 13.1 walk percentage and .288 ISO. That leaves him 39% better than league average with a 139 wRC+. He is striking out a lot (29.5%) which we also saw in his 41 at bats with the Orioles so it is something to monitor moving forward. With Santander hobbled by an ankle injury and Hays constantly on the verge of a trip to the injured list McKenna could see himself back in the majors before long. If that happens I would like to see him mixed into the starting lineup a little more often than he was in his previous stints with the O’s. Yusniel Diaz is healthy and performed well last week rehabbing in Bowie so he might get the next shot, that might actually be better for McKenna’s personal development.

JD Mundy – .385/.467/1.000 (1.467), 10 R, 4 doubles, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 26 AB (A+ Aberdeen)

The 23 year old first baseman Mundy is starting to force his way into the discussion of the mid-season top 30 prospect list in a stacked Orioles farm system. An undrafted free agent, which is a little misleading considering there were only five rounds in the 2020 draft – he would almost definitely been selected in the 6-10 round range under normal circumstances, he came out of the gate on fire and hasn’t slowed down one bit since being promoted to A+ Aberdeen. In 89 plate appearances with A Delmarva he batted .324 with a 1.038 OPS, 188 wRC+, and a 19.1 walk percentage. Since the promotion he has arguably been better with the Ironbirds. His walk rate is lower but still solid at 11.1% but he seven homeruns in just 54 plate appearances leading to a 1.183 OPS and 208 wRC+. That’s more than twice as good as the average high A player. At his age and his dominance at the plate it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that he makes it all the way up to AA Bowie before the season ends. It doesn’t hurt that Bowie’s regular first baseman was moved up to AAA Norfolk following the games on Sunday (more on that below). Its tough sledding for a first base/DH prospect, the bat really has to play consistently, but Mundy has clearly been much better than the competition he has faced at both levels of A ball. Another month or so of continued success and I struggle to see why you keep him out of AA.

Kyle Brnovich – 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5.1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K, 0.38 WHIP (A+ Aberdeen)

Brnovich was a piece of the return in the much ballyhooed Dylan Bundy trade with the Los Angeles Angels following the 2019 season. Much has been written about it but now that the minor leagues have resumed and we finally get to see the four pitchers the Orioles received in return in action the trade just keeps looking better and better. Isaac Mattson has struggled with AAA Norfolk but he is the guy with the lowest upside, a reliever who I still feel can make an impact in the Orioles bullpen eventually. Kyle Bradish looks to be the jewel of the trade, finding himself in AAA Norfolk after just a few dominant starts with AA Bowie to start the year. Zach Peek is pitching well for A Delmarva and Brnovich has been mostly dominant with A+ Aberdeen. He has a couple starts where his pitch count got to him before he could get deep into the game (2.2 innings on June 12^th and 0.2 innings on May 23^rd) but even so he had a 2.36 ERA over 34.1 innings with 48 strikeouts and 11 walks with the Ironbirds. His FIP and xFIP are pretty much right in line with his 2.36 ERA (3.29 and 2.96 respectively) while 35.3 strikeout percentage and 0.84 WHIP also look good on the resume. On Sunday it was announced to his next appearance would be with AA Bowie where Justin Ramsey has led the entire pitching staff to excel. Over the 18 months where there were no minor league games played it appeared like the Orioles were improving at the minor league level and its nice to see that is the case now that the players acquired (and the holdovers still here) are getting the chance to prove it.

Ice Cold

Connor Gillispie – 0-2, 20.65, 5.2 IP, 13 H, 14 R, 5 HR, 5 BB, 1 K, 3.18 WHIP (A+ Aberdeen)

Gillispie started out pitching out of the bullpen and gradually increased his pitch count until a couple guys in the starting rotation, notably Grayson Rodriguez and Blaine Knight, graduated to AA Bowie and he has filled in with each of his last four appearances being starts. He excelled in his first five appearances coming out of the bullpen with a 1.69 ERA over 16 innings with 14 strikeouts and three walks. His first start of the season was excellent as well as he was able to go six innings and only allowed one run with seven strikeouts and only one walk. Unfortunately his last three starts have been a nightmare. Over 10 innings he has a 15.30 ERA with just five strikeouts and six walks. The most eye opening number though are the eight homeruns he has allowed in those three starts when he had only given up two in his first 22 innings pitched. I’m not sure if he is pitching injured (I haven’t seen if there is a velocity decrease), if he needs to just focus on being a reliever, or if he has just lost a feel for one or multiple of his pitches and is leaving them over the middle of the plate. He pitched in relief following the draft in 2019 and was great with a 1.77 ERA over 20.1 inning with 21 strikeouts, five walks, and zero homeruns allowed. With another member of the rotation getting promoted (Kyle Brnovich) I would assume he will continue to get a chance to fix things while maintaining his spot in the rotation.

JC Escarra – .000/.130/.000 (.130), 1 R, 20 AB (AA Bowie)

In a flurry of promotions following Sunday’s slate of games the most surprising announcement might have been Escarra’s promotion to AAA Norfolk. He was having a very solid season before this past week so it almost would’ve made more sense a week ago. Clearly Mike Elias, Matt Blood, and company are basing these decisions on more than just the raw stats because Escarra went hitless in 20 at bats with two walks. For the season as a whole he has a 13.9 walk percentage and 22.2 strikeout percentage which are both good numbers. He has a lot of raw power that he hasn’t exactly been able to translate into games very often as evidenced by his .141 ISO. Even with just a .713 OPS he has an ever so slightly above average wRC+ of 101. I’m not sure if they moved him up because they wanted to make room for Toby Welk to get everyday at bats at first base (he was among those promoted, from A+ Aberdeen) or if they plan on giving Tyler Nevin another look at the major league level sometime soon. Its hard to tell what the organization might think of a guy like Escarra who was inherited when Elias took over. He has been a steady presence over the past few years but has never really excelled statistically over a full season. Now he’ll be at the cusp of the major leagues so if its ever going to click for him it has to be soon.

Hudson Haskin – .105/.150/.158 (.308), 1 R, 1 double, 2 RBI, 19 AB (A Delmarva)

Its interesting to me that Haskin wasn’t one of the three players promoted from A Delmarva. Gunnar Henderson was the obvious one but two other outfielders with worse numbers than him got the bump up to A+ Aberdeen, Dylan Harris and Trevor Kehe. Haskin has cooled off over the last couple weeks but he has still impressed overall in his first professional season. On the season he is batting .274 with a .765 OPS and 121 wRC+. He is utilizing his speed with 12 stolen bases and only been caught stealing twice. To be fair to Harris and Kehe they have gone under the radar due to low batting averages but they have a 21.4% and 15.7% walk rate respectively. They haven’t hit for much power either but their wRC+’s are similar to Haskin’s, Harris is at 122 and Kehe has a 119. I would imagine if and when Zach Watson (who is heating up) gets promoted to join his fellow 2019 draft picks Johnny Rizer and Kyle Stowers that Haskin will be the one to fill his shoes in Aberdeen. Hopefully by then he is back on an upward trajectory. He has such a unique stance and swing at the plate I really hope he continues to find success with it so we can see it one day at Camden Yards.