How should you feel about your baseball team as an organization when the major league team is 23-52 with a top-five farm system that produces good news seemingly every night? That is the current dilemma Orioles fans are going through.
In the third season of the Mike Elias regime, two things seem very clear: the major league roster hasn’t meaningfully improved but the farm system has. We can expect that the improvements to the farm system will start paying dividends for the major league roster soon but it’s unlikely it’ll happen this year for any of the most important prospects.
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And so, this creates an emotional gray area for the fans: we know that help is coming soon but for now, we’re stuck with another year of a bad major league team.
When Adley Rutschman has an OPS above .900 for the Bowie Baysox while Pedro Severino continues to struggle in majors, should you be more excited or frustrated? Do you consider Grayson Rodriguez or DL Hall starting on the same night as Matt Harvey to be a fun glimpse of the future or an embarrassment for the major league team? This is the current dilemma for the fans and I don’t think there’s an easy answer for how to go through this part of a rebuild.
In a way, this season feels more frustrating than 2019, the first year of the Elias regime. Ryan Mountcastle is better than Dwight Smith Jr. and Cedric Mullins is better than Keon Broxton, plus 2021 John Means is better than the 2019 version of himself. Despite three obvious upgrades to the roster from homegrown players, this year’s team is just two wins better than the 2019 squad through the first 75 games.
While the lack of major league progress is frustrating in general, the number of players on the roster who don’t seem to provide any short-term or long-term value is annoying no matter what Rutschman or another prospect does on any given night.
I’ve already highlighted Matt Harvey and Pedro Severino, but Maikel Franco, Pat Valaika and Stevie Wilkerson also fit the bill of being bad while also having no chance of being part of a meaningful future. A 28-year-old Franco providing an OPS under .650 in his eighth season does nothing for anyone and every day that Valaika or Wilkerson start at second while Jahmai Jones is clobbering AAA pitching becomes maybe the most baffling decision of the Elias regime.
Adding to the gray area here is while the young guys in the minors seem to be progressing well, it hasn’t quite been the case for the prospects already promoted. The Mountcastle and Mullins duo have provided key contributions but they’ve largely been alone. Dean Kremer had the worst start of his career on Thursday night and Keegan Akin has a 6.56 ERA in his five starts so far. DJ Stewart still has an excellent eye but struggles to produce outside of getting walks. Also, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander have both spent time on the injured list and have a below-average OPS when they are playing.
While all of this is happening at the major league level, the minors seem to have encouraging players everywhere and not just from the Rutschman/Rodriguez/Hall trio. Jordan Westburg, the second player taken by the Orioles in last year’s draft, got promoted from low-A to high-A after 20 games with a 1.075 OPS. Kyle Bradish was acquired in the Dylan Bundy trade and didn’t allow a run in his first 13.2 innings with Bowie, earning a promotion to the Norfolk Tides. The Delmarva Shorebirds lead their low-A division while the Aberdeen Ironbirds and Baysox also own winning records. This feels like true organizational progress that goes beyond just Rutschman showing why he was the #1 pick.
However, how much does that make you feel good while the issues with the MLB team exist?
The Baysox don’t get broadcast on MASN, the Ironbirds play in a stadium with a much smaller capacity than Camden Yards and no one has ever been inducted into the Hall of Fame for their accomplishments with Delmarva. The news from the minors is fun to follow but if it doesn’t turn into key players for the major league team, it’s pretty meaningless in the big picture.
At some point next year, we’re probably going to see Rodriguez pitch to Rutschman at Camden Yards for the first time. However, it’s not happening yet and it’s reasonable to think it’s frustrating to head to the stadium and pay for parking and a hot dog to see Harvey start or Valaika play second.
Everyone can see the light at the end of the tunnel but for now, it’s understandable to feel annoyed that we’ll be spending the rest of this season still in the tunnel.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).