A review of preseason predictions

On February 12th, I projected the season-stats for a number of Orioles… with ¼ of the season completed, lets see how I am doing:

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/02/baltimore-sports-and-life-projects.html

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/02/baltimore-sports-and-life-projects-os.html

Roberts 2009 Projected – 295 batting avg, 10 homers, 60 rbi, 815 OPS, 80 walks, 35 steals, 45
Doubles

Roberts 2009 Actual – 297 batting avg, 6 homers, 17 rbi, 845 OPS, 20 walks, 10 steals, 13 Doubles

Jones 2009 Projected – 285 batting avg, 20 homers, 80 rbi, 800 OPS, 45 walks, 15 steals

Jones 2009 Actual – 372 batting avg, 9 homers, 30 rbi, 1.087 OPS, 11 walks, 1 steal

Markakis 2009 Projected – 315 batting avg, 28 homers, 100 rbi, 925 OPS, 425 on-base, 500 slugging, 45 doubles

Markakis 2009 Actual – 315 batting avg, 7 homers, 35 rbi, 910 OPS, 388 on-base, 522 slugging, 13 doubles

Huff 2009 Projected – 290 batting avg, 23 homers, 90 rbi, 850 OPS, 40 doubles

Huff 2009 Actual – 256 batting avg, 7 homers, 34 rbi, 777 OPS, 11 doubles

Mora 2009 Projected – 275 batting avg, 15 homers, 75 rbi, 745 OPS, 23 doubles

Mora 2009 Actual – 265 batting avg, 2 homers, 15 rbi, 668 OPS, 2 doubles

Scott 2009 Projected – 275 batting avg, 25 homers, 75 rbi, 845 OPS, 33 doubles

Scott 2009 Actual – 303 batting avg, 5 homers, 15 rbi, 899 OPS, 6 doubles

Wieters 2009 Projected – 300 batting avg, 20 homers, 75 rbi, 850 OPS, 70 walks, 85 k’s, 25 doubles, 130 games, 520 at-bats

Wieters 2009 Actual – No Major League at-bats

Pie 2009 Projected – 270 batting avg, 12 homers, 60 rbi, 738 OPS, 320 on-base, 418 slugging, 35 walks, 140 k’s, 20 doubles, 7 triples, 15 steals, 7 caught stealing

Pie 2009 Actual – 193 batting avg, 2 homers, 4 rbi, 585 OPS, 272 on-base, 313 slugging, 9 walks, 21 k’s, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1 steal, 2 caught stealing

Izturis 2009 Projected – 255 batting avg, 1 homer, 30 rbi, 620 OPS, 20 steals, 10 doubles
Izturis 2009 Actual – 235 batting avg, 1 homer, 13 rbi, 597 OPS, 8 steals, 5 doubles

Guthrie 2009 Projected – 30 starts, 15-10, 3.95 ERA, 195 IP, 180 hits, 125 k’s, 60 walks
Guthrie 2009 Actual – 9 starts, 3-4, 5.37 ERA, 53.2 IP, 58 hits, 31 k’s, 19 walks

Uehara 2009 Projected – 23 starts, 10-10, 4.50 ERA, 140 innings, 140 hits, 30 walks
Uehara 2009 Actual – 8 starts, 2-3, 4.34 ERA, 47.2 innings, 47 hits, 9 walks

Hill 2009 Projected – 30 starts, 10-10, 4.75 ERA, 180 innings, 170 hits, 180 k’s, 75 walks
May 16th 2009 revised projection- 23 starts, 8-8, 4.75 era, 138 innings, 130 hits, 138 k’s, and 55 walks.

Hill 2009 Actual – 2 starts, 1-0, 3.18 era, 11.1 innings, 10 hits, 12 k’s, 6 walks

Liz 2009 Projected – 22 starts, 8-12, 5.25 ERA, 130 innings, 140 hits, 100 k’s, 80 walks
Liz 2009 Actual – 0 starts, 0-0, 67.50 ERA, 1.1 innings, 8 hits, 1 k, 2 walks

Albers 2009 Projected – 18 starts, 6-9, 4.65 ERA, 120 innings, 130 hits, 85 k’s, 50 walks

Albers 2009 Actual – 0 starts, 0-1, 6.75 ERA, 10.2 innings, 16 hits, 7 k’s, 6 walks

Penn 2009 Projected – 12 starts, 4-6, 4.50 ERA, 100 IP, 100 hits, 80 k’s, 44 walks

Penn 2009 Actual – 1 starts, 1-0, 6.30 ERA, 20 IP, 25 hits, 25 k’s, 15 walks

Pauley 2009 Projected – 7 starts, 3-3, 4.85 ERA, 85 IP, 105 hits, 55 k’s, 25 walks
Pauley 2009 Actual (AAA) – 7 starts, 3-3, 3.96 ERA, 38.2 IP, 44 hits, 20 k’s, 8 walks

All in all… not too bad, but not great either.

Obviously was way off with Liz, and Albers… I really believed both were on track to be the 4th and 5th starters into June for the O’s.

I currently look off with the Guthrie, Huff, and Mora projections, but I feel comfortable each will end closer to the numbers I showed…

Pie is going to be the 4th OF from here on out… so I do not believe he will get the at-bats required to match the production I expected…. But I do think he will end-up with an avg, and ops similar to what I initially said.

Penn is pitching at about the level I thought… and could find himself getting a few more starts with Florida.

Wieters could be up June 1st… but June 9th is likely the day he makes his Oriole debut… not April 17th as I believed in February. He will not get 520 at-bats, but I think the production will be what I said based on per at-bat ratios.

Predictions on Markakis, Roberts, Uehara, Izturis, and Scott are all pretty much on the money.

I feel best about the Markakis prediction, since the National experts predicted the following:

Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) projected an OPS of .834
Baseball Think Factory (Zips) projected an OPS of .879
Bill James (Bill James Handbook) projected an OPS of .899
The Hardball Times (CHONE, Sean Smith) projected an OPS of .856
Marcels (Tom Tango, The Book) projected an OPS of .851

Cumulatively, these 5 sources projected an OPS of .864 for Markakis.

I saw Adam Jones raising his game… I did not see him producing like an MVP.

Anyways, fun to look back and looking forward to seeing what the rest of the season brings.