3 Up, 3 Down – August 2, 2021

Welcome to ‘3 Up, 3 Down’, the weekly column breaking down the three hottest and three coldest Orioles players based on their performance during the previous week. It has proven to be an interesting exercise and good opportunity to highlight the highs and lows of a long baseball season. This week comes after series against the Marlins and Tigers.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

3 Up

Cedric Mullins – .389/.500/.667 (1.167), 4 R, 1 triple, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 1 K, 2 SB, 18 AB

Ho hum, Mullins continues to be incredible. But that is important. He is continuing to prove that his breakout season is for real and sustainable. My favorite part of his week is the four walks and only one strikeout. He only had two walks and 13 strikeouts for the month of July coming into the week so it appears he is seeing the ball really well right now. While he continues to hit for average (.321 on the season) and power (.223 ISO) his best weapon is probably still his speed. You see that in the outfield as he continues to chase down ball after ball (88^th percentile sprint speed, 97^th percentile outs above average) and on the bases with his 18 stolen bases. I’m not sure how much to make of it but excels leading off the first inning, batting .391 with a 1.075 OPS, and actually has a better average against left handed pitching (.323) than right handed pitching (.319). Mike Elias mentioned that Mullins has turned himself into a player he wants to build around as they try to turn the corner into contention over the next few years. The trade deadline passed without so much as a single rumor regarding his availability despite being the best player on a last place team. Its too early for extension talk with Mullins but I think its safe to start buying his jersey to wear to the games the next five years or so.

Pedro Severino – .267/.313/.867 (1.179), 3 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 15 AB

Back to back weeks for Severino in the ‘3 Up’ column is something I didn’t expect to see this season especially with how he performed in the first half of the year. He brought the power this week, hitting three homeruns including two in one game, after hitting for a good average and walking last week. At the very least he is securing his spot on the roster for the remainder of the season. Maybe he can build enough value back to be tradeable before the non-tender deadline this offseason. I still don’t see any reality where he is brought back to the Orioles in 2022 with a salary above the league minimum. He doesn’t do the pitchers any favors defensively behind the plate and with Adley Rutschman due to be up for good by May of next year at the latest they don’t need more than an Austin Wynns type (or Wynns himself) to start at catcher for the first month of the season. Pedro is good enough to at least serve as a back-up catcher in the major leagues for quite a while, it is a very thin and physically demanding position after all, but with where the Orioles are as an organization and the financial system the way it is in major league baseball it won’t be in Baltimore. Regardless, it would be nice to see him finish strong over the last two months of the season.

John Means – 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 0.83 WHIP

The real John Means has finally stood up. After a shaky couple of outings coming off of the injured list with a sore shoulder it looked like something clicked a couple innings into his start on Saturday. The patented John Means was back and he was feeling it. After only striking out two batters in each of his first two starts since being activated he struck out six against the Tigers, getting a 31% CSW overall and 35% swings and misses on his changeup. His spin rates are still down 75-150 RPM from his season average depending on the pitch but I think his pitch mix and sequencing is more important to his success. Much like with Cedric Mullins there wasn’t much traction on Means as a trade piece. Elias put them in the same category as far as key members of future Oriole teams but even if he was more willing to trade him than he is letting on I doubt now would be the best time to capitalize on his value. He is coming off of a shoulder injury for the third straight season and even though it hasn’t been anything major he is still on a cheap contract and could probably increase his trade value with another year of track record. I’m still of the belief that the Orioles should make him their first extension candidate as a statement that they’re entering phase two of the complete rebuild.

3 Down

Jorge Lopez – 0-0, 22.50 ERA, 2 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 4.50 WHIP

Not long ago (as in a couple weeks) I was saying despite his struggles in the rotation and being arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason I felt like the Orioles would bring Lopez back for 2022. My thinking was that he can transition to the bullpen as a guy who pitches much better the first time through a lineup and also provide starting pitching depth if he is needed in an emergency. I’m already re-thinking that stance. The only month he hasn’t had an ERA over 7 (7.48 in April, 7.20 in both June and July) was May when he had a 3.68 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over 29.1 innings with 31 strikeouts and 13 walks. He throws the ball hard and he hasn’t gotten injured but that is pretty much the only positive I can take away from his season. All five of his pitches are getting hit at a .273 batting average or higher and his Baseball Savant page is filled with blue. He is in the bottom 25% of the league in the following categories: average exit velocity, max exit velocity (bottom 2%), hard hit percentage, xwOBA, expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage, chase rate, and fastball spin rate (bottom 3%). Yeah, that’s a lot. Tonight (Monday, August 2^nd) he is going up against the revamped Yankees lineup in New York which is a recipe for disaster. I feel like the move will now be to non-tender him and try to re-sign him to a minor league contract.

Austin Hays – .095/.136/.286 (.422), 2 R, 1 double, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 21 AB

Hays had a rough week after having a few good ones in a row but I’m still mostly positive on his development this season. He has been healthy for almost two straight months now (knock on wood) and with the emergence of Cedric Mullins and to a much lesser extent Ryan McKenna he is no longer needed to cover center field which is a positive for the Orioles overall outfield defense. He wasn’t bad in center but fits much better in a corner with his great arm and solid range. I doubt he ever puts up eye popping numbers offensively but he can be electric in spurts and is a very good fastball hitter with a .293 batting average against the pitch this season and a .483 slugging percentage. He is also much better against left handed pitching (.313 batting average, .874 OPS) then he is against righties (.193 batting average, .625 OPS) so he could ultimately be optimized in a platoon once the top outfield prospects start working their way up to the majors. 2022 could see a platoon in left field with Hays and one of Robert Neustrom or Kyle Stowers which would be exciting. I’m not giving up on Hays as an everyday outfielder but it is good to know that he has specialty skills that a contending team can always use even if he never figures out how to hit breaking balls or RHP (and stay healthy).

Tanner Scott – 1-0, 54.00 ERA, 0.2 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 0 K, 7.50 WHIP

Mike Elias commented following Friday’s trade deadline that they were close to trading one of the major league relievers but the return wasn’t enough to get the deal across the finish line. The most likely options for who that reliever was are Paul Fry, Cole Sulser, and Tanner Scott. On one hand that is encouraging, those are all guys with at least three years of team control remaining and are being thought highly enough of to be kept around for when the team is hopefully close to contention in the next few years. On the other hand relievers are volatile and can see their value spike and drop dramatically from season to season so there is a chance this was the highest their values will ever be. That is especially true in Scott’s case as it constantly appears he is walking a tightrope between elite left handed arm with a fastball nearing triple digits and an almost unhittable slider and a guy who can’t throw a strike to save his life. Last week Orioles fans got to witness the latter. Over three appearances Scott was only able to record two outs and in two of them wasn’t able to record a single one. He didn’t strike anyone out, walked three batters, and hit two more with pitches. The icing on the cake is he ended up on the injured list with a sprained knee following his last appearance. Hopefully that is the cause for his ineffectiveness and he is able to get healthy in a short amount of time. Even if he is wildy inconsistent, when he is at his best he is one of the best left handed relievers in baseball. The Orioles and any potential trade suitors in the future will always be chasing that guy.