And here we have it…the PLL is entering their biggest weekend ever and their last regular season weekend of the 2021 season. They head to Albany for six games this coming weekend, beginning this evening at 6pm EST. With six of seven teams having locked in a playoff spot, there are essentially two games that are must-watch action. The other four will simply determine seeding. The #1 overall seed is up for grabs and five teams have a shot to clinch this weekend. Along those lines, the Saturday night game is an elimination game, with the Cannons taking on the Chrome in a win or go home scenario as both teams try to punch their ticket to Salt Lake City. The Cannons have a 58.3% chance to win the game and secure a playoff berth.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Probability to Clinch the #1 Seed (According to the PLL)
- Atlas (55.6%)
- Waterdogs (25.6%)
- Archers (18.7%)
- Redwoods (<1%)
- Whipsnakes (<1%)
- Cannons, Chaos, Chrome (0%)
There is much to look forward to this coming weekend. From players making their return to Upstate New York, to win or go home games, to the biggest weekend (number of games wise) in PLL history. Heading into the weekend, the standings are below:
Redwoods vs Whipsnakes – Friday, 6pm
Being the first of two games on the weekend is solid news for these two squads. Sitting at 4 and 5 is a tricky place to be, as a loss could knock each team to the six spot, and a win could elevate each to the three or two seed (potentially even #1).
Matt Rambo is set to return for the Whips which is GOOD news for a struggling offense. These two met about a month ago in Minneapolis when Tim Troutner stopped 17 shots and a Rambo-less offense relied on youngsters to step up. Luckily for the Whipsnakes, Rambo in the lineup should shake things up as he consistently makes plays and gets the ball on net. If Troutner is on his game again and the Redwoods can get scoring out of their midfield, they should have a chance to win. But we haven’t seen the Whipsnakes play with Rambo since June, so he should have a major impact and come in at just the right time to get two games under his belt before the playoffs.
Archers vs Chaos – Friday, 8:30pm
Another strictly seeding game, as with two wins this weekend the Archers can move into the #1 seed with a Waterdogs win over Atlas. The Chaos could move to either 5-4 or 4-5 after this weekend and may be all but locked into that #6 seed.
On a Sunday in July, Blaze Riorden made 21 saves, but the Chaos lost to the Archers 12-8. There wasn’t a goal scored in the fourth quarter of a tightly contested game. Two Ian MacKay two-bombs kept the Chaos in it, but after the first quarter the Archers offense woke up and outscored the Chaos 11-4 in the final three quarters. The Archers are going to come into this one knowing what they are playing for, and I think their offense is too strong for a struggling Chaos defense – even if Riorden puts up another 20 save performance.
Atlas vs Waterdogs – Saturday, 4:15pm
This is a big one. Major #1 seed implications on the line and here is how it shakes out.
- Atlas clinch #1 seed with a win
- Waterdogs clinch #1 seed with a win AND…
- Archers lose against Chaos or Whipsnakes
The Waterdogs will hold the scoring differential tiebreaker over the Atlas with a win, even if it is a one goal game. High stakes. The Waterdogs are the hottest team over the past few regular season weeks (which feels like a month because it has been a month), while the Atlas have been the hottest team using their young core to ride to a 6-2 record after their embarrassing opening weekend loss. The injury report has yet to be released but I would assume Jack Concannon is out again this weekend. JD Collarusso had 22 saves last weekend in two games. The main story is for the Waterdogs to decide who is going to stop Jeff Teat at attack, and Brian Costabile at the midfield. This pair ranks 2nd and 4th in points this season. The Waterdogs are more spread out offensively, but they have midfielders who run both ways. They are the fastest paced team in the league and should show that again this weekend.
Cannons vs Chrome – Saturday, 7pm
Win or go home. What kind of tricks to Rabil and Lyle have up their sleeve? Will Dylan Molloy spoil Rabil’s shot?
After trading Justin Guterding to the Whipsnakes last week, the Chrome will need guys like Molloy, Morrill and Heacock to do most of the heavy lifting offensively. The Chrome midfield has been doing a lot of scoring as well this season, as they rely on Jordan MacIntosh and Kevin Rogers a lot. Galloway needs to be on in the cage and Farrell should have a day at the faceoff x. Stopping Lyle is another task, most likely the main task for the Chrome. I think the Cannons can pull it out with a dominating performance over the Chrome defensive unit.
Chaos vs Redwoods – Sunday, 2pm
One of the Chaos’ three wins was over the Redwoods in Baltimore. TD Ierlan dominated the faceoff x but a fourth quarter run propelled the Chaos to their first win. Ierlan should be dominant once again but we will see how this one plays out. The Redwoods are still in the mix for the #1 seed, and although it is a long shot, they need to make up a ton of goals in the scoring differential category. They need to make up 9 goals in two games, hope for a Waterdogs win and at least one Archers loss. Expect shots and a lot of them.
Archers vs Whipsnakes – Sunday, 4:45pm
Depending on the Friday night result, the Archers could be playing for the #1 seed, or they could be playing for a better draw in the playoffs. Unsure how the game is going to be played makes it tricky to talk about who will be in the lineup and how they will play. Both teams have a shot to go 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2 on the weekend. These two played a barnburner in Long Island, with the Whipsnakes taking the 15-14 win. They’ll meet again with seeding on the line and may potentially match back up in the playoffs. I think the Archers are going to go all out if they have the chance to clinch, but even if they don’t, a win heading into the playoffs is a good feeling. Depending on the bracket, it wouldn’t surprise me to see these two match up in D.C. for the championship.
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One more weekend to decide the road to DC. Every spot is still up for grabs, making the last season of the NFL look like a thing of the past. Seeding, scoring differential and bragging rights are going to make every game entertaining, every starter and big name see tons of minutes, and every goal important. See everyone in Albany.
Lacrosse Analyst
Sam Kuhn currently is the graduate assistant for the men’s lacrosse program at Heidelberg University in Tiffin, Ohio and is working to complete his Masters of Business Administration in 2020. Sam graduated from the College of Wooster in 2018, where he received his Bachelors Degree in English and played lacrosse as well. In his four years, Sam was a two time All-NCAC selection, a first team All-Region selection in 2018, and surpassed 100 goals for his career, one of seven members in program history to do so. Sam has interned with Inside Lacrosse, and wrote for the sports section of The Wooster Voice.