College Football 2021 – Playoff Predictions

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I’ll begin this by mentioning who I think will come up just short.

Cincinnati – The Bearcats could be an interesting story to follow if they remain unbeaten. The last G5 team that pulled the feat and felt it had legitimate claim to be in the Playoff was UCF in 2017. That Knights team played only one Power 5 opponent during the regular season, Maryland, who ended up 4-7. (they were supposed to play GA Tech, but that game was canceled due to a hurricane) Furthermore, UCF played only one ranked team headed into the final Playoff rankings, that being #20 Memphis in the AAC Championship. Simply put, the case against them was their schedule just wasn’t strong enough to merit serious consideration.

Now look at Cincinnati’s schedule. They are set to play at Notre Dame and at Indiana this season, whose preseason AP rankings are #9 and #17, respectively. No other AAC team is ranked to start the season, and Cincinnati will likely need that to change as the season wears on. If it does, and say a UCF or Memphis does well enough to really pad their resume, this could really get interesting. But at the end of the day, I don’t think they will beat both the Irish and Hoosiers, who they play back-to-back, albeit with a bye week in between. And a G5 team isn’t making a 4-team Playoff with a loss. Still, as long as the Bearcats take care of business in the AAC, I’d book them for a New Years Six bowl.

Notre Dame – The Irish have a sneaky tough schedule. They face 4 opponents in the preseason AP Top 15 (Cincinnati, Wisconsin, USC and North Carolina). The good news is three of those games are in South Bend, while Wisconsin is just down the road in Chicago. The quirk is all four of those opponents will have a bye week before they play, while the Irish get an extra week only before the USC game. Consider that one of the pitfalls of independence. The other pitfall is that without a conference championship to lay claim, one loss likely dooms Notre Dame. I don’t think they get through that schedule unbeaten.

Oregon – The Ducks’ toughest game is obviously the Week 2 tilt at #4 Ohio State. They’ll almost certainly be a double-digit underdog. Losing that game will not doom their Playoff hopes, especially if they keep it close. But it will leave them no margin for error in conference. I don’t think they can do it. I’ll even call the game that will sink their fortunes…November 20th at Utah. I still like the Ducks to win their third straight Pac 12 title, but it’ll only be good enough for the Rose Bowl this time around.

Georgia – The Bulldogs are in a similar situation as Oregon. They face a Top 4 opponent out of conference, #3 Clemson in Charlotte, NC in this case. This game is more of a tossup than Oregon/OSU, but I think Clemson will exploit a Georgia secondary that comes in depleted, first by graduation and now by injuries. A loss there doesn’t spell the end for the Playoff. But like Oregon, I think Georgia has to run the table in the SEC, including the conference championship game. And like Oregon, I don’t think they’ll pull it off. Coming up short in the SEC Championship game against you-know-who will relegate them to the Sugar Bowl.

Now on to who will get in…

4 Ohio State – On paper, the Oregon game might actually be the biggest test the Buckeyes face this season. I think they win, but don’t run the table. Take your pick as to where they lose….October 23rd at #17 Indiana or the following week at home against #19 Penn State look formidable. It wasn’t long ago they were usually good for a totally inexplicable loss at some point in an otherwise great season, so don’t sleep on their season opener on the Thursday night at Minnesota. Still, I think they’ll win the East and the conference at 12-1, and with a resume that gets them the #4 seed.

3 Oklahoma – I really like the Sooners this year. I’ve looked at their schedule repeatedly and tried to talk myself into a game they lose. I don’t see it. The November 20th showdown with #7 Iowa State is the most obvious choice, but I think by then they will be firing on all cylinders and will just be too talented for Matt Campbell’s scrappy bunch. Same goes for their likely rematch in the Big 12 Championship. Sandwiched between those two is the Bedlam Game at Oklahoma State. That might be the trickiest one on the schedule. But I still don’t see it. I’m going 13-0 for the Sooners.

2 Alabama – I’ll call it, I think the Tide lose a game during the regular season. There’s any number of spots where they can stumble…at #13 Florida, at #6 Texas A&M, home against #16 LSU or Ole Miss. Unlikely it’s the season opener against #14 Miami….Saban & Co. have made a habit of destroying non-conference opponents in season openers, even ranked opponents. But there’s a loss on that schedule somewhere. It doesn’t change anything though. Alabama wins the West, and the SEC Championship, and order is restored. Even at 12-1, their much more challenging schedule gets them a spot ahead of 13-0 Oklahoma.

1 Clemson – After that Georgia game, Clemson has a cakewalk of a schedule. The three best teams in the ACC after them are probably North Carolina, Miami and Virginia Tech. All of them are in the opposite division, and none of them are on Clemson’s regular season schedule. Only a trip to NC State on September 25th would seem to present anything that might look like a challenge. Just go ahead and book the Atlantic Division title to the Tigers.

So with such an easy schedule how are they a #1 seed, particularly if their Costal Division cohorts beat up on each other and their championship game opponent comes in at something like 9-3? Well, that Georgia win I’m predicting, and the benefit of the doubt based on past performance, will go a long way. Though racking up some style points against the likes of Syracuse and Louisville might not be a bad idea, Dabo. 😉

And now for my Playoff predictions…

Semifinal 1: #1 Clemson vs #4 Ohio State – This matchup has become a semifinal fixture; it would be the third straight time if I’m right. I think Clemson’s lack of any meaningful challenges beyond the season-opener might ultimately be to their disadvantage. Winner: Ohio State

Semifinal 2: #2 Alabama vs #3 Oklahoma – Remember when I said I really like the Sooners this season? Well, I meant it. Winner: Oklahoma

Championship Game: Oklahoma vs Ohio State – Seriously. Winner: Oklahoma