2021 Is Officially Ending; Get To Work Orioles

I’m a huge fan of Baltimore Orioles EVP and GM Mike Elias. It’s my belief his hiring is the best thing which has happened to the Orioles organization in decades. I’m a fan because of how he has systematically operated in building the house from the ground up. I think he has sound judgement, and I think what he has done will be more widely appreciated in time.

I think it’s necessary to start with that preface before I state what I believe should be an obvious comment – there has to be significant improvement this Winter.

And yeah, I’ll include another obvious statement. If there is going to be significant improvement this Winter, Elias will need some commitment from Ownership.

But let’s be clear – October 3rd, 2021 is the last day of the Elias tenure where ‘wins and losses’ don’t matter.

There are three main reasons in my opinion why I believe a new chapter of the Elias regime arrives Monday:

• You have a number of usable pieces on the roster (and coming) to move forward with.
• You have minimal payroll obligations on the books.
• You have organizational depth – which can be used in-conjunction with the minimal payroll obligations you have – to help with trades.

Monday morning, it’s time to get to work on improving the Orioles, and having a legitimate Major League roster when Pitchers & Catchers arrive in Sarasota next February. And if the Orioles aren’t committed to having a far superior product on the field to begin ’22, that would be an organizational failure far more meaningful than the 107+ losses here in ’21.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

What Do You Have?

• Cedric Mullins ’21 was fantastic, and CF is his.
• Ryan Mountcastle will hold down 1st or DH for years.
• Austin Hays has had a huge September, and crushed lefties all year. At the minimum, he will enter ’22 as starter in either LF or RF.
• Trey Mancini is under control next year, and I continue to believe the Orioles will reach an extension with him this Winter.
• Anthony Santander turns 27 in a few weeks. I think he’s a league average player. I think he’ll be back to start ’22, and the production will either improve; or the Orioles will be moving on.
• John Means has shown to be a quality, legitimate Major League starter.

Maybe you want to see Hays stay healthy over the course of an entire season? Maybe you question Santander’s overall ability?

That’s fine, but not really the point. Assuming Santander is offered arbitration – this group of six will be back for ’22. Giving you options you can feel reasonably good about at CF, 1st, DH, LF, RF, and SP1.

Certainly not enough, but it’s a start.

Do You Have Anything Else?

Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, Mike Baumann, Zac Lowther, Bruce Zimmermann, Alex Wells all saw Major League time this year; and despite a few positive outings to end the year – collectively it was rough.

Of this group, only Baumann has an arm you’d look at and potentially see mid-rotation upside. Maybe that, coupled with their struggles this year has you writing this group off?

I see a group of guys who have had real Minor League success, and – to varying degrees – have the chance to help a Major League roster.

As this Winter arrives, I don’t feel you need to have a spot waiting for any of them. I’d get to Spring Training, and see how they look. If someone earns a spot, great. At-least two of the arms should break camp in the bullpen. And if the others have to go back to AAA and earn another call-up; that’s not a bad thing.

What else?

Jahmai Jones hasn’t shown anything in his ML ab’s so far, and truth-be-told his AAA numbers weren’t great either. Still there is some recognized talent there, and he should be in-line to compete for time at 2nd.

Ramon Urias? Again, what we’re asking here is do you have additional potential usable parts. Not, “Is this player a cornerstone going forward?”

Urias actually has a higher fWAR than Mountcastle, buoyed of course by Mountcastle’s low-grades in the field (though Urias also didn’t grade well in-terms of UZR and DRS at 2nd and SS). Urias turned 27 in June. He doesn’t have a pedigree which says ‘future piece’, but he did enough offensively this year, that he probably has an inside track to a roster spot next Spring.

Jorge Mateo? His athleticism jumps out at you, and you can see why he was once a heralded prospect. The lumbar injury he sustained and ended his ’21, was unfortunate for him as he was getting regular time. Like Urias, he is pretty well positioned to make the ML roster next Spring, but hopefully it is a UTI piece, and not as a projected starter.

Ryan McKenna? The 24 year old murdered AAA this year in his 101 ab’s with Norfolk. He also struggled tremendously in his 165 ab’s in the Majors. Even if Santander is offered arbitration, he figures to get plenty of playing time and opportunities next year.

Again, anyone else?

I still like Tanner Scott, Dillon Tate, and Hunter Harvey; but certainly go into this off-season less excited about each of them. Scott was very good against lefties, but righties hit him pretty well and the control is just a continuing issue. Doesn’t matter how good the swing and miss stuff is, you can’t be a guy counted on in high leverage situations if you can’t be counted on to throw strikes. Tate was… usable, but not good. Not enough k’s. More of just a guy vs. anyone of note. Harvey can be evaluated as a pitcher the first time he shows he can get through a season. The summary with these three is that each has the requisite talent to help a roster, but you can’t go into ’22 planning on depending on any of them.

Tyler Wells? Wells took advantage of this season with the Birds. The Rule 5 selection missed ’19 with a Tommy John, and didn’t play in ’20 with the COVID situation. He’s older than you’d first think – turned 27 in August – but the hits per IP were strong, as were the k’s. He’s earned a return look in ’22.

Cole Sulser? In ’20, he was never quite right with the Orioles, as he was pitching with a foot injury. He’s quietly had a very effective ’21, and is under team-control for years. Yeah, he’ll be 32 next March, but as we said with Urias and Mateo above – he’s a potential usable piece for ’22.

All-in-all, out of this group you’ve got maybe a starter or two, a number of pretty decent bullpen options, three UTI types who each could reasonably hold down 2nd for a year, and a young OF with some starting potential.

Who Internally Is Joining The ML Roster In ’22?

Adley Rutschman is the best prospect in baseball.
Grayson Rodriguez is the best pitching prospect in baseball.

While we hope that service-time manipulation is addressed in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement; we can reasonably expect with the rules as is that both will be in an Orioles uniform once the O’s have gained the additional year of control.

By June 1st, you’ve added your everyday Catcher, and one of your five starting pitchers. You can very comfortably expect a minimum of league average production at C, and an AL average 4th or 5th starter added to the rotation. It also wouldn’t surprise if both immediately provided more than that.

Jordan Westburg was selected with the 30th overall pick in the ’20 MLB Draft out of Mississippi State. He didn’t disappoint in his first year of pro ball, advancing all of the way to AA Bowie for the last 30 games of his season. He got time at both SS and 3rd at all three MiL stops, with more time actually coming at SS. Maybe he starts ’22 back at Bowie. Maybe he jumps to Norfolk. Either way, I think it’s a winning bet to believe he will be in the Majors by the 2nd half of ’22.

Gunnar Henderson (a 2019 2nd round pick out of High School) also reached Bowie this year, but just for the last 5 games. He’s still younger than Westburg, and I think his track to the bigs will be a little bit slower. I think he probably splits his ’22 season between Bowie and Norfolk, and maybe gets a cup of coffee in the Majors at the end of next year. That said, he has the talent to write his own ticket. If he goes out and kicks ass at the Double A level from the beginning, he could be on the verge of promotion.

Who else?

DL Hall has to show his health before you can talk about promotion. If he’s healthy, and performing; promoting him to the Majors at some point in ’22 can happen. The primary question (beyond his health) are the lack of innings he has logged as a pro. Just 31.2 this year, and obviously ’20 was spent at the alternative site.

Kyle Bradish will get Major League time next year, you can count on that.

Kevin Smith has a chance.
Drew Rom has a chance.

Yusniel Diaz is the positional Hunter Harvey at this point. You can evaluate him as a player, when he shows he can stay healthy. But no sugar-coating things here, ’21 was a disaster for Diaz and he should be completely forgotten about until he produces enough in the Minors to deserve any attention.

Kyle Stowers had a big year in ’21. The 71st overall pick in the ’19 Draft spent time at Aberdeen, Bowie, and Norfolk this year and had 27 homers on the season. He also struck out a lot. Even in this three true-outcome era, you’ve got to wonder if he’ll make enough contact at the ML level. Still, the power is real, he is turning 24, and he’s reached AAA. He certainly figures to find ML ab’s during ’22.

Robert Neustrom, Rylan Bannon, Cody Sedlock? Sure, all could get time, but nothing you are excited about there.

Ofelky Peralta? As a reliever, he’d move quick, and could help.

Joey Ortiz showed some of his talent this year, but he also only played in 38 games. Need might force a promotion, but I think the O’s will be looking to just find him regular time in the Minors.

Injuries also derailed Terrin Vavra’s ’21 season, as Vavra only played in 48 games this year. I like a lot about his profile, but he’s 25 in May, and he’s played in 40 games at the AA level. He has the skill-set where you can envision him ending ’22 as the Orioles 2nd baseman, but first he’ll need to show he can stay in the lineup and produce at the AA and AAA levels.

Who is definitely joining the Orioles internally in ’22? Rutschman, Rodriguez, Westburg, Bradish, Stowers.

Possible Trade Targets?

Joey Wendle – 31 years old, multiple win player, with strong versatility. He made $2.25M this year, and seems like he could be obtainable from the Rays.

Sean Manaea – Turns 30 in February. 31 starts, 173.2 innings, and lots of k’s this year. Would Oakland like to trade him for years of control now, with him being a Free Agent after ’22?

Gio Urshela – His OBP and Slugging both tanked this year. He turns 30 this Month. He’s not in the Yankees plans going forward. He’d give the Orioles options at SS and 3rd. A Free Agent after ’23.

Brian Anderson – In ’18 and ’19, he put up back-to-back 3 win seasons by fWAR. In ’21, he’s been on the shelf since June with a shoulder injury. Before the injury, was regarded as a quality fielder at both 3rd and RF. A Free Agent after ’23. He made $3.8M this year. Does Miami want to move on?

Alec Bohm – The 25 year old 3rd baseman got into 113 games with Philadelphia this year, and had below average results. Still, he’s been regarded as a quality prospect for sometime. Maybe he’s obtainable if the Phillies get a piece or two back they think are better positioned to help them in the immediate?

Shorter-Term Free Agent Targets?

Michael Pineda – The big right-hander turns 33 in January. ’21 was his 3rd year with the Twins, and he had 109 innings over 21 starts. His xFIP of 4.28 is less attractive than the ERA (3.68), and his average FB velocity has dropped to 90.7 (93.2 for his career). He made $10M this year.

Zach Davies – The former Oriole prospect has made 155 career ML starts. His first year with the Cubs has been rough, as he’s posted a 5.78 ERA (5.02 xFIP) over 32 starts. K% down. BB% up. Turns 29 in February. In those 155 career starts, he’s got a career ERA of 4.14. He made $8.63M this year.

Eduardo Rodriguez – Another former Oriole prospect, Rodriguez has 152 career ML starts, including 30 this year. Back from a ’20 lost to COVID, the lefty has a 4.93 ERA, but a 3.42 xFIP. He’s still throwing hard (92.8 average FB), and both his K% and BB% are the best of his career. Rodriguez made $8.3M this year. He turns 29 in April. Lots of reports that Boston wants to move on.

Andrelton Simmons – The 32 year old is having trouble staying healthy, and he bat was so bad this year, it’s striking. Still, he’s been a superior defensive SS for a decade, and even now is better with the glove vs. anything the Orioles have internally. It would be a 1 year deal for very little money. Maybe having a steadying defensive influence is the way to go?

Alex Wood – Wood turns 31 in January. Playing in San Francisco helps. Previously playing in LA helped. Still, he’s got a 3.50 career ERA in just under 1,000 career innings. His K% and his BB% this year were both better than his career averages. More than a K per IP. Less than a hit allowed per IP. His xFIP of 3.43 better than his 3.83 ERA. He’s on a 1 year $3M contract.

Dare To Dream Free Agents?

Kris Bryant – Turns 30 in January. Probably is never the 6+ win guy per year he was the first three years of his career. Still can picture him finding the seats in LF often at Camden Yards. Still adequate at 3rd. Haven’t seen projected contracts for Bryant. But 6 years, $150M? Gives you an All-Star caliber talent at 3rd for several years, and then probably moves to 1st / DH.

Javier Baez – Bryant’s former Cubs teammate, turns 29 in December. His .307 career on-base % is kind of scary, but maybe also keeps his contract down? As with Bryant, he’s an All-Star caliber talent at a position (SS) of need. If you were to land one of Bryant or Baez, you have a legitimate answer on that side of the field. Some of the stuff we’ve seen in his time with the Mets give me additional hesitation though. It was reported in April he turned down a $180M +/- extension with Chicago. Is he going to get that much now?

Trevor Story – Turns 29 in November. A 3.8 win season this year. An .880 OPS at home, and a .729 OPS on the road. A quality defensive SS. Figures to be in the same neighborhood as Baez.

Corey Seager – Turned 27 in April. Played 157 games in ’16. 145 in ’17, 26 in ’18, 134 in ’19, and 92 in ’21. Very strong offensive talent. Not a great fielder. Hard to picture him getting out of LA, but if he does, there are rumors of the Yankees wanting to make him a priority.

If We’re Dreaming… Why Not?

Carlos Correa – Just turned 27. A true SS. Has posted his third 5+ win season. The familiarity from Elias’ time in Houston. I’m sure he wants, and will get $30M AAV. The question is years. He played 153 games in ’16. That was followed by 109 games in ’17, 110 in ’18, and just 75 in ’19. This year he has played 146 heading into this last weekend. Is someone going to give him 10 years? Maybe. If the injury history keeps his market to more like 6 or 7 years – the Orioles should absolutely be willing to pony up. Doesn’t matter that you won’t be competing in ’22, you’d be signing him because you expect to contend during the duration of his deal. He’s just entering his prime. He’d be exactly what you need.

Final Thoughts?

Sorry, I said everything below in August and I’m going to repeat myself here.

In ’17, the Orioles spent $164M in salary. That’s about $182M today. Jon Meoli from The Baltimore Sun recently estimated the Orioles ’22 Opening Day salary without external additions at $54M (inclusive of deferred payments to Chris Davis).

Take the salary to $140M, and you can add an AS at SS or 3rd, and two SP’s that are 3’s or better.

Take the salary to $90M, and there is still a lot you can do.

– I think the team is now in a position to add because they’ve cleared the decks of commits going forward, they have obvious positions of need, and the Free Agent class happens to line up well with those needs. 

– I have no idea if they’ll spend what they should be spending this offseason, but if I had to guess… I would say no.

– You can’t make Free Agents take your money, but you can offer.

– I don’t think spending $140-$150M on payroll next year is crazy at all. They’d be greatly improved, and well positioned for a real run in ’23.  They’ve spent more than that previously, and with inflation, we’re talking about 75% of their previously established max payroll. 

– I do suspect they’ll make some moves beyond the complete fringes of the roster this Winter. Taking the salary somewhere to $70-$80M seems like a reasonable expectation of what the Orioles are likely to-do.

– It’s talked about repeatedly in Astroball that they wanted to have a cheap surrounding core (under long-term team control) and then be able to add externally. It’s not a magical formula, it’s just logical. And for me it’s logical that Elias also sold this plan to the Orioles. In the initial building, take the payroll down, invest in other areas of Baseball Operations. When a certain point is reached, bring the payroll up to add.  Will that happen? I generally think so, but probably slower than I’d like.
 
– If they have no desire to spend at all, they should be operating like Tampa Bay, and Mancini should have been traded. 

Why do I think the Orioles have the ability to spend to $140-$150M?

– In April 2020 FanGraphs Estimated the Orioles local TV Revenue at $54M.

– In centralized money the Orioles receive from National TV deals, etc, it’s estimated the Orioles receive $91M.  

– With the sale of BAM Tech, each team received a one time pay day of $50-$68M…. and MLB will continue to receive 15% annually, divided among the teams, and this counted as outside of baseball related revenues. While I don’t know how much the Orioles can expect from BAM Tech this year, they are receiving something.

– 48% of local revenue is subject to revenue sharing, and distributed equally among all 30 teams. Each team receives 3.3% of the sum as a result, with each team generating an estimated $118M from that pot. I believe (but don’t definitively know) that means 48% of their estimated local TV revenue + other revenue streams is subject to revenue sharing, and $118M comes back to the Orioles.

Yes, the Orioles will eventually have to payout something significantly to the Nationals. Yes, the Orioles still have revenue. Yes, the Orioles should be investing some of their revenue back into the Major League product.

Real Final Thoughts?

Beginning Monday October 4th, wins and losses matter when evaluating the Elias regime.

The 107+ losses this year is unacceptable.

If the payroll is $54M, $75M, or $140M – you’ve got options available to you to improve the roster. Whatever the salary is, it’s now on Elias’ shoulders to figure out how to make it work.

When Spring Training begins next February, the Orioles need to have a legitimate Major League roster.

Improve the team!