MLS – Run to the Playoffs

With all the tremendous soccer that’s been played the last several months (Euros, CONCACAF Nations League, Gold Cup, and WC qualifying) its not hard to look past our domestic league. But doing so would have cause fans to miss out on some good soccer. The quality of play is ever improving. No its not at the level of the big European leagues. Not even close. But the gap is narrowing. No league outside the Big 5 in Europe had more player appearances in the September qualifying window than the MLS did!

Additionally, look no further at how many young MLS stars keep getting transferred to those big European leagues. And watch closely over the next few months because several standouts are going to get moved in January and perhaps at some pretty incredible fees!

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

There is just one month of league play remaining culminating in Decision Sunday on November 7th. The league will then take a short break with the Audi Cup Playoffs beginning on November 20th. The short break is very smart on the part of MLS for two reasons.

1. Allows almost two weeks for players to rest and heal any short term injuries before the playoffs begin.
2. The break coincides with the the FIFA window. This means that any MLS players, such as Matt Turner of the NE Revolution, that get called into national team duty for WC qualifying matches won’t miss any playoff matches.

Regarding this second point its important to know that this MAY be an issue for some teams over the next 10 days. The second qualifying window for CONCACAF is ongoing right now and some players, such as Matt Turner, will miss time as they are away with their national teams. Probably won’t impact the final MLS standings but the potential impact is there.

The regular season totals 34 matches, assuming each team plays all their matches. In the event that teams don’t end up playing equal number of matches the final standings will be based upon a points/match basis. At this point each team has played at least 27 matches and four teams have played 29. So teams have from 5 to 7 matches left to earn a playoff spot. Here’s a look at each conference and how their playoff representatives are stacking up. Teams are listed in the breakdown in order of the current standings.

Eastern Conference

Playoff Bound:

New England Revolution – They have already clinched the Conference #1 seed for the playoffs and are on pace to set a record for most points in a season. They have the highest goal differential in the league and they have Matt Turner in goal. Goals become harder to come by in the playoffs and it often comes down to penalty kicks. Turner is the best there is when it comes to PKs. So far this season he has faced 3 PKs in league play and only allowed one. Yes its small sample size but he’s been that good his entire career.

Nashville SC – They have two things going for them. First, they simply do not lose at home having gone 8-7-0 (W-D-L format). Second, they have the second best defense in the league based on goals allowed. Come playoff time that defense may carry them deep. Walker Zimmerman is one of the best center backs in the league and he plays well when the pressure is on.

Philadelphia Union – They also have a very stout defense having only allowed the same number of goals as Nashville albeit in one less match. The problem for the Union is scoring. Striker Kacper Przybyiko leads the team with 9 goals. Their next best scorer only has 5. If a team can shut down the 6’4″ big gun they can struggle.

In the Hunt:

Orlando City – Its unusual to see a team sitting so high in the standings with a neutral goal differential but here they are. The problem for OC has been its inconsistent play but they may be turning that around. Daryl Dike is back fit and playing well after getting hurt in duty with the USMNT this summer. Having to solid goal scoring options (along with Luis Carlos Almeida da Cunha) makes them tough to defend against. Dike, at 6’1″ and 220#, is an imposing figure in the middle of the field and commands attention from typically two defenders. In their last 6 matches they have allowed 15 goals. They will need to fix that if they want to make any kind of playoff run.

D.C. United – Similar to OC, they simply allow too many goals to be comfortable with them making a playoff run. But the good news for United fans is that they can score with Ola Kamara leading the league with 17 goals. If he stays how they will be trouble for opposing defenses.

New York City FC – They have found a good blend of attacking and defending soccer. They can score up with most teams but don’t concede as many on the other end. Goalkeeper Sean Johnson anchors the defense. He’s steady and reliable. If he gets hot at the right time they can make a run.

CF Montreal – Another team along the lines of OC. They can score but they also are a bit weak on the other end. How well Montreal does the rest of the way and in the playoffs will come down to the play of Djordje Mihalovic who came over in a transfer from the Chicago Fire last December. He leads the team in combined goals+assists and is second in all of MLS in assists. Stopping Mihalovic is the key to shutting down Montreal. Easier said than done.

Atlanta United – My how the mighty have fallen. Just 3 seasons ago they won the MLS Cup. Now they are just a so so team and may not even make the playoffs. But they do have Josef Martinez and when you have him things can happen. The good news is that they have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way having matches with Miami, Toronto, and Cincinnati the rest of they way. Expect the to sneak into the playoffs.

New York Red Bulls – Debated whether they belong in this group or the Going Home group but decided to give them the benefit for their defense. They have a good one. They are a bit like Philadelphia in this regards. But the problem is their attack isn’t quite as good as Philly and their defense isn’t near as good. Still the schedule is not in the favor so don’t think they make the playoffs.

Going Home

Barring some miraculous turnaround these teams are just going home in early November. Columbus Crew (last years Cup winners!!), Inter Miami, Chicago Fire, Toronto FC, and FC Cincinnati just aren’t cutting it. They all share one statistic and that is never a good thing. They all have negative goal differentials. My youngest son always says “Dad when you don’t have as many points as the other guys you lose.”

Western Conference

Playoff Bound:

Seattle Sounders – Winning championships in sports is a hard thing to do. There are so many variables that come into play. But historically three factors typically come into play. Defense, playoff experience, and coaching. Well the Sounders have all three. They have allowed the fewest goals in the league. They have made the finals 3 of the last 5 years. They have Brian Schmetzer as their head coach. Do not bet against this team.

Sporting Kansas City – They have the best attack in the West and a solid defense. Led by Hungarian striker Daniel Salloi they still have a shot to win the Conference. Salloi, is being touted by many as the league MVP and that has plenty of merit. He’s tied for second in the league in goals. The problem this poses for opponents is that they also have Johnny Russel and Alan Palido with 10 and 8 goals. Pretty tough to stop all three.

Colorado Rapids – A solidlly balanced side but their real forte is playing at home. While a good road team, they are really, really good at home having gone 7-6-1. Teams dread going to the Mile High City to play. Altitude is a killer for players used to near sea level elevations. But its even worse come the playoffs. Denver can be miserable in November. Who can forget the USMNT win over Costa Rica there in March of 2013. Having played a number of matches in the snow I can tell you that its, well, unique.

Portland Timbers – Watching the Timbers play is never dull. They run, run, and run some more. And that usually leads to plenty of goals. The problem is that it also ends up in lots of goals at the wrong end. Its hard to say how they will fare once the playoffs start. They do have the experience (2 finals the last 6 years) and a solid coach in Giovanni Savarese. Gio knows how to get the best out of his players and with names like Felipe Mora, Dairon Asprilla, and Diego Valeri they can quickly become a dangerous team.

Real Salt Lake – Same scoring picture as Portland having scored 45 and allowed 44. Head coach Freddy Juarez left in August and Pablo Mastroeni was named interim coach. The team has gone a big change in style the last 6 weeks. Under Juarez they were a possession oriented team with an expected goal (Xg) of 1.1/match. Mastroeni has the playing a much more aggressive press and their Xg has risen to 1.4/match. The problem is that they have pressed at times in a organized way leaving them open to counters. Under Juarez the Xg allowed was 1.1/match but has risen of late to 1.5/match. So overall under Mastroeni their overall Xg differential has gone down. They do have a favorable schedule the rest of the way.

LA Galaxy – No sugar coating this side. They used to be near the top of the Conference standings. Then it hit the fan. They have not won since a 1-0 victory over Minnesota clear back on August 10-44. Since that match they have gone 0-4-5. The good news is that they have not played terribly bad over that stretch. In fact their Xg allowed/match has dropped over that 9 game stretch. And they are one of the best teams in the league in maintaining possession. They have the talent to right the ship. Don’t expect them to play like they did the first half the season but they are better than the last two months.

Minnesota United – A negative goal differential is never a good thing and its unusual for such a team to make the playoffs but here we are. The Loons don’t score much but they don’t allow much either. They are 7th in the league in open play Xg scoring and 9th in the league in Xg scoring on set pieces. In defensive minded games set pieces tend to be critical. United is good here.

Vancouver Whitecaps – The Caps are a tail of two teams. They are not good when they don’t have the ball but they are good when they do. Now certainly teams tend to be better with the ball than without it. Its pretty tough to allow a goal when you have the ball. But they take some wide swings here. They did fire coach Marc Dos Santos and have played better under new interim coach Vanni Sartini having gone 4-2-1 the last month. They have a legit shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. The biggest issue for them may be their road record if they do make the playoffs. Only 1 road win this season doesn’t bode well for any kind of a playoff run.

LAFC – They are a team that the metrics gurus love to dissect. The metrics really like this team. The standings, not so much. They are second in the league in Xg scoring from the run of play yet they are only 15th in actual goals scored from the run of play. Hard to explain such a vast difference between those two data points. They will need to string some wins together to make the playoffs but the schedule doesn’t appear to be their friend.

San Jose Earthquakes – Another team that could have been put in the bottom group but what the heck. Simply put they are going to have to vastly reverse their goal differential the rest of the way. Sitting at -9 is not a recipe for success. They are another odd team sort of the opposite of LAFC. The metrics don’t like these guys at all. They are only 18th in open play generated Xg and DEAD LAST in the league in Xg allowed. Hard to see how such a team can be close to the playoffs????

Going Home:

These teams are in the identical situation of those in the Going Home group in the Eastern Conference. They all need miracles, and lots of them or they get to watch the playoffs on TV sitting in front of their fireplaces. FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo, and Austin FC just don’t have it. Now that said if you get a chance watch FC Dallas the rest of the way. They have two young kids up front in Ricardo Pepi and Jesus Ferreira who are just fun to watch. In fact, tune in to the next three USMNT matches and you’ll see plenty of Pepi! And don’t be surprised in January if you see Pepi move to Europe for a figure north of $10M. Kid is good. Really good.