Week 8 of the NFL season is almost in the books. The old adages of “any given Sunday” and “it’s a week to week league” were certainly in full force yesterday.
With some time to process the Ravens’ atrocious performance in Week 7 and put it in proper perspective, here’s a few things to look at as we embark on the post bye portion of the season….
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
- The Cincinnati Bengals were the toast of the NFL this past week after dismantling the Ravens at The Bank. The Bengals were further buoyed by heading to MetLife Stadium to face a woeful Jets team. To top it off, the Jets would be forced to start unheralded 26 year old Mike White under center. This seemed to be a recipe for the Bengals to cement their place amongst the AFC’s elite. Instead, White completed 82% of his throws for 405 yards and 3 TDs. All while bringing his team back from an 11 point, 4th quarter deficit. It seems as if the Bengals got a bit drunk on themselves and got bit by the clichéd “trap game”. The surprising Bengals’ loss, along with a sloppy win for the Steelers over the Browns, not only put the Ravens back atop the AFC North but also reinforced the fact that there are no easy wins in the division.
- There is something about the game immediately after the bye week with the Ravens under John Harbaugh. From 2008-2020, Baltimore is 10-3 coming out of the bye. Juxtaposed to that record, in the game prior to the bye week, their record is 7-7. This could be a function of several factors, ranging from the opponent that particular week, the overall quality of the specific Ravens team that year, home vs away, or simply the human element of looking forward to week off to rest and recover.
- The circumstances of the Week 7, 41-17 drubbing at the hands of the Bengals, definitely bore a resemblance to the 43-13 loss to the Houston Texans in Week 7 of the 2012 season. During the 2012 bye week, the now legendary “mutiny” took place at a team meeting. The offensive and defensive players pointed fingers at each other and it could’ve derailed the season. Instead, Harbaugh managed the situation with a deft touch and weathered that storm, along with the eventual firing of offensive coordinator (and friend) Cam Cameron a few weeks later. Both occurrences were key components in an eventual Super Bowl victory. I don’t think there’s going to be any internal turmoil amongst the 2021 Ravens but there’s plenty to be gained from a humbling loss entering the bye. Not that the shortcomings and the roster would be any different had the Ravens been sitting at 6-1 vs 5-2 but taking a tough loss can really provide some teaching moments for the coaching staff and allow the players to narrow their collective focus.
4. In trying to make sense of the defense’s very uneven play thus far this season, some of the numbers are a bit puzzling. 3rd down and 4th down conversion percentage allowed are down so far this year compared to ’19 and ’20. Ditto for red zone TD percentage allowed, which was surprising to me. So far in ’21, the Ravens have allowed TDs on 46% of opponents’ red zone possessions, which was good for 3rd in the league through 7 games. Probably the most staggering statistic are the amount of explosive plays given up thus far. Through their first 7 games, the Ravens have allowed 32 passing plays over 20 yards, tied for 30th in the league. Furthermore, the defense has allowed 6 passing plays over 40 yards, tied for 28th in the league. To put those numbers into perspective, in 2020, the Ravens defense gave up 38 passing plays of over 20 yards and 4 passing plays of over 40 yards. Without going back to review each big play allowed, I would venture a guess that the more of the big plays have resulted from catch and runs in the wake of poor/missed tackles, as opposed to guys simply getting loose in the secondary.
5. The 2021 Ravens are not a dominant team by any stretch. Their roster depth has been pushed to the limit at running back and offensive line, which has led to an inconsistent (at best) rushing attack. The true futility of the running game is being masked somewhat by the super human efforts of Lamar Jackson. Through the first 7 games, the Ravens have gained a total of 1046 yards on the ground. Jackson has accounted 480 of those rushing yards, or just under 46% of the total output. For the sake of comparison, during the record breaking season of 2019, Jackson rushed for 1206 yards, which was 36% of the total rushing output. In 2020, the former MVP totaled 1005 yards on the ground, which was good for almost 33% of the team’s 3071 yards rushing. Bottom line is this, the Ravens are going to have to find some semblance of productivity/consistency from the running game. The problem is, how do they get there? The Ravens cap situation will, in all likelihood, preclude any kind of significant upgrades. The only RB that could potentially be squeezed in under the cap is the Colts Marlon Mack. Mack lost the majority of the 2020 season due to injury but in 2019, he rushed for 1091 yards, 4.4 yards per carry and 8 TDs. Mack is 25 years and only has 567 carries under his belt. That’s very low mileage relative to our current stable of backs. Given Mack’s low cap number (he signed a 1 year $2 million deal prior to this year), perhaps EDC and company could make something work, if the Colts were amenable.
All in all, it’s been a productive bye week for Baltimore. Not only did the Ravens AFC North foes help them out but the news on the injury front is relatively encouraging. Derek Wolfe and Nick Boyle are practicing and drawing closer to a return. Offensive tackle Juwan James is running at practice and may be able to suit up in December, provided his return from injury continues without any setbacks. The offensive line could definitely use a boost after losing Patrick Mekari to the dreaded high ankle sprain, so anything on that front is encouraging. The next 10 games don’t provide much of a reprieve, as 4 of the next games will be on the road, including the run of 3 consecutive division games vs. Cleveland, at Pittsburgh and at Cleveland. However, if history has taught us anything, John Harbaugh’s Ravens will come out swinging after the bye week.
Jamie has been a Baltimore sports fan since he can remember. He grew up in Gwynn Oak and currently resides in Hampstead with his wife and 2 kids. He graduated from UMBC with a Bachelor of Arts in History. He’s currently employed at Verizon Communications in Hunt Valley.