For a long time, I used to fall into the trap that losing to a team with a bad record means that was a bad loss. Now I know: every loss is bad.
Besides the potential for losses to teams with poor records harming your playoff chances (i.e., tiebreak scenarios), the biggest reason people are frustrated is ego. A loss to the Chiefs should garner as much frustration as a loss to the Lions, but because those two franchises are headed in opposite directions, those losses feel different.
Maybe people felt like the Ravens deserved to win, automatically, against a then 2-win Dolphins team. Those people are likely the ones who are overreacting in the wake of last week’s 22-10 defeat.
Here are three ways the Ravens can ensure avoiding a second straight loss.
Get back on schedule
Not only do they rank 28th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate (34.21%), but the Ravens also rank 1st in the league in average time of possession (32:52). If Baltimore keeps the ball more than any other team with a 3rd down conversion rate that’s really poor, how much more can they do if they convert just a few more 3rd downs each game?
Last Thursday at Miami, the Ravens were a meager 2-for-14 on 3rd downs. Their average yards to go on 3rd down was 8.8. They can’t keep the ball, and almost as important, they can’t be as effective as they are on 4th downs if their 3rd down to-go yardage is so high.
Staying on schedule is vital. Like we saw on Thursday, the longer lesser teams can hang around, the more likely they are to win the game. Letting Chicago establish a rhythm on early downs cannot happen. Baltimore must be more dominant early on so that they can dictate tempo and game flow, as opposed to being dictated to like they were last Thursday night.
Run the ball, early and often
In Baltimore’s last 10 wins, they’ve run the ball 367 times for 2,037 yards and 15 touchdowns. In Baltimore’s last 10 losses, they’ve run the ball 328 times for 1,702 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Either way, Baltimore has been able to run the ball at a high level over an extended period of time. With an average of more than five yards per carry, neglecting the run, especially early, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Like we talked about last week, the Ravens have the temperament and personnel to dominate teams on the ground. If they get enamored with the pass on early downs and don’t convert, they will self-sabotage their grueling ground attack.
I’m not saying don’t pass the ball on early downs. I am saying don’t pass the pall often on early downs, especially when you’re running game is so effective.
Turnovers
In the NFL, the great equalizer is the turnover. Forcing them and not committing them will undoubtedly influence how your team’s season plays out.
The Ravens are currently -5 in turnover margin, committing five more turnovers than they’ve forced. Under the leadership of John Harbaugh (2008-20), the Ravens’ yearly average turnover margin in +4.4. Their yearly average in turnover margin in years when they make the playoffs is +6.8.
The Ravens haven’t forced multiple turnovers since Week 2 (seven games). They haven’t had a turnover differential of +2 or more in a game since Week 5 of 2020 (22 games).
Clearly, Baltimore has work to do in this department. Fortunately, though, they face the worst yards-per-play offense in pro football this Sunday (4.7 ypp). I can think of no better time than this Sunday for the Ravens defense to get back on track.
Vegas
Currently, the Ravens are 6.5-point favorites at Chicago. Once again, they’re touchdown favorites on the road. The point total is set at 45, so it seems like if Baltimore can score around 24-28 points, they’ll have a strong chance to win.
I don’t buy into the excuse of them losing because they had a short week of practice prior to the Miami game. So did the Dolphins. You play who is on your schedule when they’re on your schedule. All teams get good and bad breaks along the way. How you respond is what counts.
Baltimore is 6-3 on the year, but 3-6 against the spread. With 10 days rest and a renewed sense of determination, I have to think the Ravens earn a convincing, yet hard-fought win on Sunday.
Prediction: Baltimore 26, Chicago 21
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.