Recent memory will remind us of that games against the Browns—especially ones of the primetime variety—are incredibly close. Sometimes, too close.
Think back to Will Hill III’s return TD of a blocked field goal as time expired in 2015…how thrilling was that? Then there was the time C.J. Mosley’s sealed the game with a later interception of Baker Mayfield with a minute left in the 2018 season finale.
And of course, no one can forget last year’s Monday night thriller when Lamar Jackson returned to action to throw a crucial go-ahead touchdown to Hollywood Brown with 1:51 remaining.
To say this game will be close is probably the easiest prediction you can make. Six of the last 10 games between these two teams played in Cleveland have been decided by one score. Even though game against the Browns are always intense, Baltimore is clearly the better team over the course of the rivalry.
Since he took over the Ravens, John Harbaugh is 20-4 against the Browns. The Ravens are 33-11 against the Browns. That said, this Sunday night will be another huge primetime game in which playoff positioning will be on the line. The Ravens are fighting for the AFC’s top seed and the Browns are fighting for a playoff spot. The Ravens are 1st in the AFC North and the Browns are in last in the AFC North, but best believe this game Sunday night will be a dog fight.
Here are three ways Baltimore can come out victorious.
Protect the passer
The Browns pass rush has been one the very best in the NFL this season. Cleveland ranks tied for 3rd in sacks this season with 29, while Baltimore ranks 31st in sacks allowed with 34. Hopefully, Baltimore follows their offensive formula from the Chicago game (34 runs, 36 passes). Deploying a balanced offensive attack is key to neutralizing the defense’s biggest threats. Nothing against Tyler Huntley, but if Lamar Jackson is good to go Sunday night, that should give Cleveland’s pass rush just a little more to think about. Sometimes a split-second of hesitation is all that’s needed for an offensive play to be executed correctly.
No more busted coverages
Seriously, what the heck is going on with Baltimore’s defensive backfield? Have you ever seen this many busted coverages from a Baltimore secondary? I don’t care if the secondary is comprised of multiple backups. They still have a job to do and are expected to execute their assignments. Furthermore, every football player needs to know critical football situations.
For example, fourth and 11. The Bears only option was to throw deep. They were almost exclusively targeting the left side of Baltimore’s secondary. How can you get beat on a double move?
The Ravens pass defense, especially with regards to the big play, is flat out woeful. Baltimore is 2nd worst in pass plays allowed of 20-plus yards (47) and tied for worst in pass plays allowed of 40-plus yards (11). Cleveland’s passing offense is above average across the board. They will make some mistakes, but not many. Chicago was begging Baltimore to win that game on Sunday. Cleveland won’t be as accommodating.
Start the 4th with a lead
Obviously, you’d like to have a lead after every quarter. But specific to this matchup, it’s important the Ravens enter the final quarter ahead on the scoreboard.
In 4th quarters this season, Baltimore’s scoring offense averages 8.5 points (7th in the league). Cleveland’s defense is allowing 8.1 points in the fourth quarter this season (25th in the league). Being ahead on the scoreboard allows you to have more flexibility in what you call (offensively and defensively), while having the inverse effect on your opponent. Given the Ravens are at home this week go on the road to Pittsburgh next week, it’s very important they not let an opportunity like this one slip away.
Vegas
As of Monday morning, the Ravens were favored by 4 ½ points, with the point total being set at 46 ½. Baltimore is 2-3 against the spread at home and 2-4 against the spread after a win.
Considering how close they play the Browns, home and away, in addition to these sub-standard stats, the best bet is to take the points. However, picking the Ravens to win is equally as smart as their resolve is as close to flawless as you will see in the league.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Browns 23
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.