There’s an old Onion article with a headline that I will clean up slightly which says, “Holy [swear word] Man Walks On [swear word] Moon!” That pretty much sums up the last few days of the baseball off-season. Most sports have off-seasons that are like pouring hot chocolate on your head: it’s quick and hot but then it’s over, everything cools off, and there’s really not much to be done afterwards. Baseball’s off-season though is different. Baseball signings are typically spread out over months, the signings dripping in slowly like a leak in your roof. But not this off-season. This off-season your roof has collapsed. About half the free agents have signed in roughly a week’s time and the signings keep pouring in as I type these words.
The Collective Bargaining Agreement, the legal agreement between the owners and the players that sets the terms for everything in baseball, is set to expire in a few days, and that fact seems to be the impetus for all this. Nobody, not the teams nor the players, knows what will happen in the next CBA, or even when the next CBA will be agreed to. As a result, both the teams and the players are trying to get their signings in under the wire, before things potentially change irrevocably.
With that as the backdrop, a few items have emerged. Presented in no particular order…
1. The Mets aren’t Metsing, instead they are spending
When Steve Cohen bought the Mets from the ever-incompetent Wilpons, he promised a new day had come. You know, like all new owners promise. He promised the Mets would spend and he’d bring a championship to New York. You know, like all owners promise. Except, it seems, unlike all owners, he’s actually kept his promise, at least the first part so far. To that end, Cohen’s Mets have reset baseball’s salary structure by signing future Hall-of-Famer and current 37-year-old starter Max Scherzer to a three year, $130 million contract. For those math illiterate among you, that’s [pulls out abacus] $43.33 million per year. That’s the highest Average Annual Value (AAV) in baseball history, $7.33 million more than Mike Trout’s contract. And not only did they spend that money, but they spent it a couple days before the owners are set to lock out the players because the owners believe they aren’t making enough money. Try and let that sink in. Or, better yet, find a good hard kitchen sink and bang your head into it repeatedly.
But that’s not all the Mets have done (although, at least by AAV, it’s most of it). The Mets have also signed corner outfielder Mark Canha, center fielder Starling Marte, and shortstop/third baseman Eduardo Escobar. All that plus what the Mets already have on the books puts their 2022 payroll at $268 million, well over the luxury tax threshold, and the highest mark in baseball. There’s no reason to think the Mets are finished, either. I mean, at some point they’ll run out of roster spots, but until then, watch out, free agents! We’ve entered a new era in Mets baseball.
2. The Rangers are doing… something
Last season’s trade deadline featured the Rangers playing the role of sellers. They dealt off starter Kyle Gibson to the Phillies and star outfielder Joey Gallo to the Yankees, and they got prospects back in both deals. Not the moves of a team ready to contend. But that’s just what they wanted you to think! Instead of a quiet off-season where the team builds prudently around draft picks and player development, the Rangers are… how to put this politely? Going nuts. They’re going nuts. They signed Marcus Semien, a great player, but a 31-year-old second baseman, to a seven-year contract, worth $175 million. They signed ex-Rockies starter Jon Gray to a four-year, $56 million deal, about three years more than most experts expected. They signed star shortstop and Dodgers post-season hero Corey Seager to a [you better sit down] 10 year, $325 million contract.
That’s a huge influx of talent! But here’s the thing: after committing about $550 million or thereabouts, their roster is still not very good! They still badly need starting pitching, their outfield is weak, and there are holes in the infield at just about every position except the ones they just filled. Yes, they have a few prospects who could step in and perform, at least potentially, but not nearly enough to envision the team competing for the playoffs in 2022. Maybe I’m wrong about this, it sure wouldn’t be the first time, but this seems like a massive amount of money to get somewhere near a .500 record. Unless they’re going to spend more, that is. Does Carlos Correa want to take $500 million to play third base in Texas?
3. Revenge of the bad teams
Almost all this spending is being done by teams that missed the playoffs last year. The Mets and Rangers did the stuff I mentioned above, yes, but it’s not just them. The Mariners stepped up and signed reigning AL Cy Young-winner Robbie Ray to a contract of $115 million. The Tigers appear to have signed (as of this writing) Javier Baez to likely a similarly expensive deal, and that’s after giving Eduardo Rodriguez $77 million. The Blue Jays signed ex-Giants ace Kevin Gausman to a $100 million contract. The Angels gave Noah Syndergaard $21 million. Meanwhile, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers have mostly sat on their hands while their players have signed elsewhere.
The big teams haven’t completely sat things out. The Astros found $50 million to give to Justin Verlander to keep him in Houston. The Red Sox hit the ATM for $7 million for Michael Wacha. The Dodgers managed to convince reliever Daniel Hudson to take their $7 million to come play in LA. But those are small deals in the scope of this past week’s activity.
The complaint has always been that in baseball there are the Haves and the Have-Nots and the Have-Nots are essentially major league farm teams for the Haves. It’s not entirely true, though there is some truth to it, but this off-season is, so far at least, turning that truism on its head.
It doesn’t have to stay that way, though. There are still a lot of players out on the market, including some of the very best players available, like Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Trevor Story, Kris Bryant, and Clayton Kershaw. Perhaps the big names will get involved. After all, there’s lots of time! At least 24 hours until the CBA expires.
Orioles Analyst
Matthew Kory is a Orioles / MLB Analyst for BSL. He has covered baseball professionally for The Athletic, Vice Sports, Sports On Earth, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. He lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife, two boys, and his cats, Mini Squeaks and The President. Co-Host of The Warehouse.