College Football 2021 – Championship Week Preview

What a great end to a great regular season! Now it’s on to Championship Week and determining the Playoff field. And, yes, more coaching carousel.

Overreaction: Alabama definitely should not be a Top 4 team unless they upset Georgia.

Two things:

1. In determining who should be in the Playoff, picking the four best teams and the four most deserving teams are not necessarily one-and-the-same. And it’s not always  clear which way the selection committee leans when those two diverge.

2. In evaluating Alabama’s Playoff worthiness, you cannot measure them against past Alabama teams. You measure this season’s team against all the other teams from this season.

Here’s what we know: If Alabama beats Georgia, they will make the Playoff.

Here’s what we think: If Alabama gets beat handily by Georgia, they likely do not get in.

Here’s where it gets murky: If Alabama loses a tight game against Georgia….?

Going back to #1; do I think Alabama is one of the four best teams in the country? It’s no slam dunk, but I think it’s likely they are. They probably lose to Georgia 7 or 8 out of 10 times. They might go 5-5 against Michigan. They probably win 7 out of 10 against Cincinnati, Oklahoma State or Notre Dame. They are not one of Nick Saban’s best teams. Everyone knows it, including Nick Saban.

(BTW: Did you see how giddy and effusive with praise for his team Saban was after they barely squeaked by a mediocre Auburn team, who were without their starting QB, and his backup was gimpy for much of the 2nd Half? I mean, he hasn’t seemed that excited after winning national championships. Why? Because he knows this team is not going to have it easy against much of anyone; but they keep fighting and find ways to win.)

Now, do I think Alabama is one of the four most deserving teams in the country if they are 11-2, while Cincinnati is 13-0 and Oklahoma State is 12-1? That’s a tough one. I lean towards “no” and think the last two berths should go to the team had a perfect season and the Power 5 team that lost only once. Will the committee feel that way? If I knew, I’d be headed to Vegas with that intel.

Recalibration: If there is ever a season where the Heisman Trophy should go to a defensive player, this is it.

I mentioned in a couple past columns that this season feels like we are seeing a defensive renaissance in college football. Look no further than the nation’s #1 team. They have a former walk-on at QB, and his leading receiver is a freshman TE. But the Georgia Bulldogs have been the most dominant team of the season, and it’s because they have arguably the most dominant defense the sport has seen in a decade (2011 Alabama is probably their closest comp). Through the regular season they have allowed just 6.9 points per game. 2011 Alabama surrendered 8.2 PPG, though they also gave up almost 40 YPG less than 2021 Georgia, and forced more turnovers.

Then you have Michigan at #2, who are allowing the 8th fewest PPG in the country (17.17). #3 Alabama, perhaps surprisingly, is only #20 at 19.9 PPG. #4 Cincinnati is 3rd in the country at 15.75. The other two teams on the doorstep of the Playoff, Oklahoma State and Notre Dame, are 5th (16.42) and 11th (18.25) respectively. Compare that to 2020, when none of the Top 10 scoring defenses made the Playoff.

I won’t go into the weeds on whether scoring is down overall in college football this season, as I don’t have the full numbers yet, and this is supposed to be about the Heisman. But suffice to say teams are winning with defense more than we’ve seen in the recent past.

So, about the Heisman….obviously there is no Joe Burrow out there who has been so great (historically so in Burrow’s case) that he’s the can’t-miss guy. CJ Stroud and Bryce Young have had great seasons, both in their first year as starters; but when I think of the best player in the sport this season, neither comes to mind. Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Walker III have been dark hours candidates for much of the season. And yet neither stands out from the crowd.

Who does stand out, in a defensive season? Georgia’s Jordan Davis, for one. Will Anderson at Alabama. Aiden Hutchinson at Michigan. What do they have in common? They all play defense and they all play on teams that currently control their Playoff destiny. Will any of them win? Probably not. It’s the Heisman, and it probably will come down to Stroud or Young. But damnit, at least two of those guys, if not all three, need to get an invite to NYC next weekend.

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Odds and Ends

Here’s this week’s Playoff scenarios. Opinions strictly my own.

#1 Georgia is in. Beat Alabama and they are #1 seed. Lose and I think they are most likely #3, but that obviously depends on what else happens.

#2 Michigan needs to beat Iowa. Do that and they probably keep the #2 seed, though could be jumped by #3 Alabama if they beat Georgia.

#3 Alabama could really use an upset win over Georgia. Lose to them badly and they’re out. Lose a close one to them and it’s iffy (see Overreaction above).

#4 Cincinnati wins and they are very likely in. Alabama probably drops below them if the Tide lose. Perhaps they get jumped by Oklahoma State because the Cowboys would have a more impressive win (if they do win). Cincinnati loses and I think they need a lot of help.

#5 Oklahoma State needs a win over Baylor and a loss by either Alabama, Michigan or Cincinnati. They could leapfrog Cincinnati even if the Bearcats win.

#6 Notre Dame needs losses by two of Michigan, Oklahoma State or Alabama. Not sure if they could jump ahead of Cincinnati even if the Bearcats lose, though it would be interesting. More interesting: If Notre Dame somehow makes it in, the coach that took them there will have just walked out the door.

What a perfect segue to….COACHING CAROUSEL!

I heard several people say they can’t recall a move like Lincoln Riley made, from one upper-echelon program to another. Then LSU AD Scott Woodward and Brian Kelly said, “hold our beers.”

It’s been said ad nauseam the past several days, but there is no good way for a coach to exit his program for another job. That said, Brian Kelly seems to be consistently good at finding the worst ways.

That said, I think Brian Kelly is a great hire for LSU. There is a ceiling at Notre Dame, and he’s had them there for the past decade. He couldn’t break through, but that’s because so hard to get enough of the sort of players you need admitted into Notre Dame to have the best chance to break through. That won’t be the case at LSU. The Tigers will consistently be a force to be reckoned with once Kelly gets that thing built.

Lincoln Riley may or may not succeed at USC, but early indications are, based on how many guys are decommitting/transferring from Oklahoma, that he is at least going to kill it when it comes to recruiting. SoCal is one of the three biggest hotbeds of HS football talent (South Florida and the Houston metro being the others). Too much of LA’s top talent has been leaving for greener pastures in recent years. Riley should be able to change that.

Kalen DeBoer to Washington is one of the most underrated hires of the Silly Season thus far. I’m sure some Washington fans expected a bigger name, but the former Fresno State coach is a great offensive mind who will give the Dawgs O the shot in the arm it desperately needs. Plus, he’s already got his QB from Fresno, Jake Haener, to transfer and join him. This will be Haener’s second stint at UW.

As of this writing, it sounds like Marcus Freeman will be Notre Dame’s next head coach. The Irish haven’t had much luck when it comes to first-time college head coaches (Bob Davie and Gerry Faust come to mind). But the past isn’t relevant here. Freeman had a ton of support coming from a lot of different directions, especially the locker room. He’s earned his shot.

More Defense: It seems like we’re seeing more defensive coordinators getting shots at head coaching jobs of late. Freeman, Brent Pry at Virginia Tech, Bret Venables at Oklahoma (maybe), and of course Dave Aranda at Baylor last year. The new guys might want to recall Jimmy Lake at Washington as an example of what not to do. Even in a defensive renaissance, you still gotta score. Hire yourself a very good OC!

It sounds more like Manny Diaz will remain at Miami for 2022. With a new AD still coming, I think he is going to need a monster season if he is to last beyond next year.

Not to be outdone by the Coaching Carousel, Portal Season is officially in full swing, and the Early Signing Period begins in two weeks. Buckle up, December is a busy month on the college football calendar.

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Game of the Week

#1 Georgia vs #3 Alabama (Atlanta)

3:30pm ET, CBS

Spread: Georgia -6.5

I guarantee that Georgia is not coming into this game with the mentality that they are the favorite. Given the recent history in this series, the Bulldogs believe they are still the hunter, not the hunted, and they will be prepared to throw everything they have at Alabama; even though the only thing really on the line for them in Playoff terms is their seeding. The Bulldogs believe they are the ones who have something to prove.

The focus during the lead-up to big games is primarily when the two strongest units meet on the field; and in this case it’s Alabama’s offense against Georgia’s defense. The blueprint for slowing down Alabama’s offense is well known by now. You get pressure on Bryce Young. Auburn did it for 59 minutes and showed you can win if you do it for 60. It helps that Alabama really doesn’t have a running game you have to respect. Their best back, Brian Robinson, has been hampered with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play Saturday (and if he does could very well be limited). That pretty much leaves Bryce Young scrambling as the only real running threat. Despite him being a very mobile QB, Alabama has not incorporated him into the run game this season, probably as a precaution against injury, since they have no proven depth at QB behind him. Georgia’s defense is good enough that they can probably play the pass exclusively, though I would consider having a defender spying Young.

Despite the focus being on the units above, often times these games come down to the other side of the ball. Here is where Georgia needs to be concerned. I wrote several weeks ago that I think Georgia needed to change quarterbacks; returning to JT Daniels once he was healthy, which he has been for a month now. I felt that Stetson Bennett is simply too limited to win games for them once they get to this point of the season. My concerns about Bennett have not abated, and I think Kirby Smart has made a mistake; but for better or worse, Smart is standing by Bennett. I will say this: having seen Alabama lose to Texas A&M’s Zach Calzada, and nearly lose to Auburn’s TJ Finley, both backups pressed into duty by injury, I do think Bennett has more of a shot than I did a month ago. But Georgia must avoid adverse situations for Bennett. They cannot fall behind by more than a score, and they must avoid 3rd-and-longs.

It feels weird saying that a Nick Saban coached team is an underdog in a big game, but injuries have done a number on his team, and I don’t think he has enough ammo to capitalize on Georgia’s weakness at QB. If anything, Alabama’s reputation might have this spread a little closer than it ought to be.

My Pick: Georgia -6.5

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Game of the Week II

#5 Oklahoma State vs #8 Baylor (Arlington, TX)

Noon ET, ABC

Spread: Oklahoma State -5.5

In a league not known for defense, these teams are the two best, and among the Top 20 in the country. Given that it’s their second go-around (OSU won 24-14 back on Oct 2), I would expect the defenses to feature even more prominently. This one feels like it will come down to a turnover or crucial special teams play. Here’s my upset of the week….I like Baylor not only to cover, but win outright. I feel the Cowboys are prime for a letdown after their huge Bedlam win.

My Pick: Baylor +5.5

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Game of the Week III

#21 Houston at #4 Cincinnati

4:00pm ET, ABC

Spread: Cincinnati -10.5

I wonder if the Bearcats feel any pressure going into this game. It’s the biggest game in not just the history of their own program, but probably the biggest game in the history of any G5 program. I think the Bearcats will come through, but Houston is an underrated team that I think will keep this close, even on the road.

My Pick: Houston +10.5

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Game of the Week IV

#2 Michigan vs #13 Iowa (Indianapolis)

8:00pm ET, FOX

Spread: Michigan -11

Same as above. I like Michigan to win outright, but this spread is too wide. Iowa is still a very good defensive team and is unlikely to let the Wolverines run all over them like Ohio State did. Iowa’s offense is terrible, so even an 8 point deficit is probably insurmountable for them to overcome, but Iowa can keep it inside 11 just with all the turnovers they force.

My Pick: Iowa +11

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My Top 12

1	Georgia
2	Michigan
3	Alabama
4	Cincinnati
5	Oklahoma State
6	Notre Dame
7	Ohio State
8	Ole Miss
9	Baylor
10	Oregon
11	Michigan State
12	BYU

If my predictions come true, be ready for some big controversy on Selection Sunday over whether 11-2 Alabama should get in over 11-1 Notre Dame, or even whether someone like Baylor should be in the picture for #4.

Hard to believe how fast this season flew by. What blast it was, and much needed after 2020. I’ll still be here to preview and discuss Bowl Season, and of course the Playoff!