If you never knew before the importance of separating perception from reality, you do now.
It seems like the loss at Pittsburgh ended Baltimore’s season. It was that emotionally draining. However, the Ravens are still in first place and very much in contention for the AFC’s top seed.
Baltimore lost Marlon Humphrey for the year, but in all honesty their secondary was struggling with him in the lineup. That’s not to say it’s not a big loss—it absolutely is. However, the Ravens are accustomed to filling guys in on the fly.
This week, they face the Browns for the second time in 15 days. Baltimore won that game, 16-10, despite four interceptions thrown by Lamar Jackson. The Browns did poorly in that game as well, falling flat on their face in the running game, running for only 2.4 yards per attempt—well below their league-leading average of 5.1 yards per attempt.
This game figures to be another close one, and given the short turnaround, it’s not likely the teams will change their approach too much from the previous meeting, even if they wanted to.
Here are three ways the Ravens can win Sunday and claim their 11th winning season of the 14-year Harbaugh era.
Stack the box
Through three quarters of the season, the Ravens lead the league in opponent rushing yards percentage with a mark of 23.62 percent—an improvement of more than 8 percent from a season ago. Baltimore is also tied for 4th in the league in least rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.0). Two weeks ago, the Ravens held the Browns to 40 yards on the ground—that’s fewer rushing yards than they allowed in their previous 31 regular season games.
Despite their decimated secondary, the Ravens remain an outstanding rush defense. Cleveland knows that, but I still expect the Browns to attack the Ravens on the ground. At this point in the season, your best bet is not to get fancy but to do what you do best.
Sacks
Lamar Jackson has been the most sacked quarterback in the NFL (37). Baker Mayfield isn’t far behind, as he’s been sacked the 6th most times of any quarterback in the NFL (29). If both offenses allow sacks and are forced into 3rd-and-long situations, I like the Ravens to convert more often than the Browns.
Hopefully, they won’t fall into those situations, but playing in Cleveland against that pass rush is quite the challenge. In my opinion, how the Ravens handle the Browns pass rush will be the deciding factor in this game.
Turnovers!
The Ravens rank 30th in the NFL in turnover margin (-8). Quite frankly, that’s appalling. It’s not close to what their potential is on either side of the ball.
Turnovers seem like a defensive stat, but the offense is just as accountable to it as the defense. Against divisional opponents on the road in December, you cannot turn the ball over and expect to win. They’re too good and the margin of error is too slim to absorb those kinds of errors. Baltimore did force a pair of turnovers two weeks ago against Cleveland, which is usually good enough to win. Unfortunately, they gave the Browns twice as many extra possessions. More than anything, turnovers are a result of focus.
In two starts at Cleveland, Lamar Jackson is 2-0 throwing 4 TD, 0 INT, and rushing for over 100 yards in each game. The opportunity is there. The time to capitalize is now.
Vegas
For the first time in a while, the Ravens are underdogs. Vegas set the point spread for this game at 2 ½ in favor of the Browns, and the point total at 42 ½. Once again, a close game is on the horizon. Who do you trust more right now: Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson?
I absolutely trust Jackson more, but I acknowledge he needs to play a lot better. You can’t leave plays on the field week in and week out and just hope things will still work out. You need to execute.
Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 17
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.