The UCL 2021-2022 Group Stage has been completed and the draw for the Round of 16 knockout stage has been made. We’ll talk about the draw results but first lets recap the Group Stage and compare it to the preview from several months ago. And this year there were some serious surprises!
Group A
Club Brugge/Manchester City/Paris Saint Germain/RB Leipzig
Prediction – PSG would advance and Man C or RB would advance depending on how they did head to head.
Reality – PSG did advance taking second in the group. But the stage was set on the first match day when Man C hosted RB and trounced them 6-3. Scoring 6 goals is just hard to do in soccer. Doing so in a UCL match is just not done and Man C rode that victory all the way to winning the group.
Group B
AC Milan/Atletico Madrid/FC Porto/Liverpool
Prediction – Liverpool should win the group and Atletico Madrid should take second.
Reality- Well Liverpool cruised to the top winning all 6 matches. Atletico, Milan and Porto were closely matched but with its tough defense Atletico took second, one of only three teams to advance with a negative goal differential.
Group C
Ajax/Besiktas/Borussia Dortmund/Sporting CP
Prediction – Dortmund and Ajax advance and keep an eye on the youth and speed of Ajax.
Reality – Indeed Ajax and their young studs cruised through winning all 6 matches and scoring the second most goals in group play. Unfortunately Dortmund and Sporting CP tied on points but Sporting advanced on goal differential. Tough pill for Dortmund fans to swallow.
Group D
FC Sherriff/Internazionale/Real Madrid/Shakhtar Donetsk
Prediction – Real Madrid and Inter advance and be shocked if Sheriff earn more than a single draw.
Reality – Real and Inter did advance. But Sheriff proved to be a tough out. They actually won two and drew one for 7 points. Amazing feel good story for Sheriff fans.
Group E
Barcelona/Bayern Munich/Benfica/Dynamo Kiev
Prediction – Bayern and Barcelona move on. However, readers were forewarned that Barca losing both Messi and Griezmann were ripe for getting knocked off especially by Benfica.
Reality – Bayern crushed the group. Winning all 6 matches while scoring the most goals and tied for the fewest allowed in the stage. And indeed Benfica had just enough to push past Barca. The first time in 17 years that Barca did not advance to the knockout rounds!
Group F
Atalanta/Manchester United/Villareal/Young Boys
Prediction – Man U and Villareal to advance but predicted to be a very tough group. Atalanta and Young Boys are good enough to pull off some results.
Reality – Man U and Villareal did advance but not without some worries. Man U won the group tied with Lille for the fewest points for a group winner. And Young Boys finished in last but they did earn the most points of any last place side.
Group G
Lille/Salzburg/Sevilla/Wolfsburg
Prediction – My pick for the toughest group as any of the 4 teams could win the group. Sevilla to advance based on more international experience and then pick one, my guess was Wolfsburg.
Reality – Not even close although it did indeed turn out to be a really tough group. Lille took the top spot with Salzbug taking second. And yes this group did go down to the final matchday. Very entertaining group to watch as every game was close. In fact only twice did a team win by multiple goals and in both of those matches the margin of victory was just 2.
Group H
Chelsea/Juventus/Malmo/Zenit St. Petersburg
Prediction – The easiest group to handicap with the two big guns, Chelsea and Juventus moving on.
Reality – As expected although Juventus did win the group over Chelsea but the top two were never in doubt. Chelsea, in second, had 8 more points than third place Zenit. The largest gap between a second and third place team in the stage.
Round of 16
The draw for the Round of 16 was held this past Monday and has setup some interesting matches with play commencing in mid February. Its important to remember that UEFA changed the competition rules several years ago allowing teams to add up to 3 new players to their roster for the rest of the tournament. Even players who have already competed in this years UCL for another team. This means that the January transfer window can impact teams in both a positive or negative manner depending on any moves made next month.
But the draw also caused a lot of controversy. UEFA made a huge error when they placed teams in the draw pots and lo and behold Manchester United ended up in the same pot as Villareal and the two sides were drawn to face each other. Oops!! One of the key draw requirements is that teams from the same Groups can’t face each other in the Round of 16. So they had to repot Man U and draw again. But then Man U was not put into a pot of teams eligible to face Atletico Madrid and lo and behold UEFA got the dream matchup of Man U and PSG (Ronaldo vs Messi). Conspiracy? Doubtful but in the end it didn’t matter as UEFA decided since they had a software error that the whole draw would be redone.
In the interim to the transfer window lets take a quick look at the draw and how things sit at least for now.
Red Bull Salzburg vs Bayern Munich – Bayern led the group stage in both goals scored and fewest goals allowed. Hard to imagine Salzburg has the horses to pull off an upset.
Sporting CP vs Manchester City – CP allowed 12 goals in their 6 group stage matches. The Citizens scored 18. CP will have to find a much better defense to find a way to best City.
Benfica vs Ajax – Two of the most interesting teams from the group stage and now they get to face each other. The problem for Benfica is that they don’t score (tied for fewest in the group stage) and Ajax has been scoring in bunches. Their speed should prove to be too much for the Benfica back line.
Chelsea vs Lille – Lille doesn’t score either but they do have a very stingy defense. But Chelsea, under Thomas Tuchel has shown that they can break down defenses from multiple spots on the field. Chelsea, of late, however has had some lapses on defense. This matchup should be close. On paper Chelsea is the better side but they have to be careful.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United – Somehow it just seems fitting that they end up facing each other after the original draw apparently didn’t align so that they could. Atletico doesn’t score much but they don’t allow much either. Man U scored a bit but they also allow a bit more than you’d expect. This is a close tie so flip a coin.
Villareal vs Juventus – Another tie of two closely matched sides. And this one could be impacted a bunch by the transfer window depending on if their ownership groups decide to be buyers, sellers, or standing pat.
Inter Milan vs Liverpool – Inter has a terrific defense but they will need all of it and more to stop Liverpool. They are just deep all over the field and can score on anybody.
PSG vs Real Madrid – Probably the best matchup of this stage. Both clubs sit atop their respective domestic leagues. Both clubs lead their respective leagues in goals scored. Expect a lot of fireworks in this one.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.