Week 15 in the NFL: Odds, Picks, and Players to Watch

The last quarter of the NFL season is upon us. A lot is happening. A lot is at stake—literally.

Last Thursday, it was announced that there will now be legal betting at the MGM casino in National Harbor. Sports betting has come to Maryland at long last.

Here are the games of Week 15, the Vegas odds, my picks for each one, and some fantasy football players to watch.

THURSDAY 12/16

Chiefs (9-4) at Chargers (8-5), 8:20 PM on FOX

Odds: Kansas City -3.5

Total: 51

Analysis: Kansas City ran roughshod over Las Vegas last week to shake off any “rust” they had. Now back in their true form, the Chiefs head to LA to play a surging Chargers team. I see a shootout, and when teams like this are close, it’s usually a good bet to take the home underdog.

Pick: Chiefs 38, Chargers 35 (LAC +3.5, over 51)

SATURDAY 12/18

Raiders (6-7) at Browns (7-6), 4:30 PM on NFL Network

Odds: Cleveland -6.5

Total: 42.5

Analysis: Both teams have been slightly above average this week, and both have excellent pass rushers. However, and especially since they’re at home, I think this is the Browns game to lose. The two positions where the Raiders are clearly better than the Browns are quarterback and kicker. Obviously, those are two very important positions. I expect this game to go down to the wire.

Pick: Browns 27, Raiders 23 (LVR +6.5, over 42.5)

Patriots (9-4) at Colts (7-6), 8:20 PM on NFL Network

Odds: Indianapolis -2

Total: 45.5

Analysis: Even though the Colts are at home and have been playing good defense this season, it surprises me they’re favored. I think the Patriots have proven that if Mac Jones was a hindrance, they’d have struggled much more than they have.

Pick: Patriots 23, Colts 19 (NE +2, under 45.5)

SUNDAY 12/19

Jets (3-10) at Dolphins (6-7), 1:00 PM on CBS

Odds: Miami -8.5

Total: 42.5

Analysis: Miami has incurred a bunch of covid cases as of late, but New York is dealing with their own adversity in the form of key injuries. The Dolphins are flat out a better team and have a chance at the playoffs, while the Jets struggle to play decent football week in and week out.

Pick: Dolphins 30, Jets 13 (MIA -8.5, over 42.5)

Cowboys (9-4) at Giants (4-9), 1:00 PM on FOX

Odds: Dallas -10.5

Total: 45

Analysis: A spread of 10 ½ points in favor of the road team is a huge number. That said, Dallas is deserving. The Giants are just bad. The Cowboys are verry good and battle tested. They also have a chance to go 4-0 in their division and virtually clinch the NFC East with a win on Sunday.

Pick: Cowboys 31, Giants 17 (DAL -10.5, over 45)

Panthers (5-8) at Buffalo (7-6), 1:00 PM on FOX

Odds: Buffalo -10.5

Total: 43.5

Analysis: The Bills lost a heartbreaker last week at Tampa Bay, and now return home to face an up and down Panthers squad. Josh Allen’s health will be crucial, but even if he’s not at full strength, I like the Bills to recover from their overtime loss a week ago. Good teams know how to rebound quickly, and the Bills are just that. Again, they barely lost to the defending Super Bowl champs. I fully expect them to bounce back with authority in Week 15.

Pick: Bills 35, Panthers 20 (BUF -10.5, over 43.5)

Football Team (6-7) at Eagles (6-7), 1:00 PM on FOX

Odds: Philadelphia -5

Total: 43.5

Analysis: As the records indicate, this should be a very close game. I’m not sure either team will make the playoffs, but there is a decent chance the winner of this game will be in contention thru the end of the season. Philadelphia is at home and coming off a bye, but Washington is not by any means an easy out.

Pick: Eagles 21, Football Team 20 (WFT +5, under 43.5)

Cardinals (10-3) at Lions (1-11-1), 1:00 PM on FOX

Odds: Arizona -13.5

Total: 47.5

Analysis: The disparity on the surface of this game seems way too wide. I don’t think Detroit wins, but something tells me the Lions, led by former NFC West QB Jared Goff, keep things close.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Lions 19 (DET +13.5, under 47.5)

Titans (9-4) at Steelers (6-6-1), 1:00 PM on CBS

Odds: Tennessee -2

Total: 41.5

Analysis: Both teams have a lot to play for in this game. The Steelers could win, of course, but the way the Titans defense is rolling right now, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Pick: Titans 24, Steelers 17 (TEN -2, under 41.5)

Texans (2-11) at Jacksonville (2-11), 1:00 PM on CBS

Odds: Jacksonville -3

Total: 40.5

Analysis: This may be the worst game of the year. It features two teams really struggling with almost nothing to play for. What will be interesting will be to see how each team responds to said circumstance. I like the Texans in this one as one of the safer bets of the week.

Pick: Texans 28, Jaguars 14 (HOU +3, over 40.5)

Cincinnati (7-6) at Denver (7-6), 4:05 PM on CBS

Odds: Denver -1.5

Total: 43.5

Analysis: This game could go either way. Maybe the matchup of the week will be between rookie sensations Ja’Marr Chase of Cincinnati and Patrick Surtain II of Denver. How that duel plays out will tell a lot about what the final score will be. A big advantage the Broncos have is their running game, featuring both Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams, so keep your eye on time of possession.

Pick: Broncos 26, Bengals 21 (DEN -1.5, over 43.5)

Atlanta (6-7) at San Francisco (7-6), 4:05 PM on CBS

Odds: San Francisco -8.5

Total: 45.5

Analysis: The records of these two teams are close, and they both have dynamic tight ends, but I think that’s where their similarities cease. San Francisco showed impressive grit last week, holding on to win in overtime on the road against a very good Cincinnati team. I think they win again this week, this time by double digits.

Pick: 49ers 34, Falcons 20 (SF -8.5, over 45.5)

Green Bay (10-3) at Baltimore (8-5), 4:25 PM on FOX

Odds: Green Bay -5.5

Total: 43.5

Analysis: Aaron Rodgers against Lamar Jackson. A Packers team that’s rolling against a reeling Ravens team. Baltimore, with its collective back against the wall, supported by a raucous home crowd. Get your popcorn ready.

Pick: Packers 31, Ravens 20 (GB -5.5, over 43.5)

Seattle (5-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4), 4:25 PM on FOX

Odds: Los Angeles -7

Total: 47.5

Analysis: In Week 5, the Rams beat the Seahawks in Seattle, 26-17. This time around, I don’t see enough of a change in Seattle to think the outcome will be much different.

Pick: Rams 33, Seahawks 14 (LAR -7, under 47.5)

Saints (6-7) at Tampa Bay (10-3), 8:20 PM on NBC

Odds: Tampa Bay -11

Total: 46.5

Analysis: The Buccaneers are in contention for the NFC’s top seed, and although the Saints present some unique challenges, I don’t think they have enough to derail Tampa Bay’s quest to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Pick: Buccaneers 40, Saints 24 (TB -11, over 46.5)

MONDAY 12/20

Vikings (6-7) at Bears (4-9), 8:15 PM on ESPN

Odds: Minnesota -3.5

Total: 44

Analysis: This game figures to be a defensive battle. Justin Jefferson, for my money, is the best receiver in football, but in a divisional road game, success is very hard to come by. Besides, mid-December Chicago weather is always a challenge. If the Vikings want to make a real run at the postseason, they need to win this week.

Pick: Vikings 24, Bears 16 (MIN -3.5, under 44)

FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYERS TO WATCH

QB: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia (vs. Washington)

WFT allows the most points to quarterbacks of any team in the league. Given Hurts’ dual-threat ability and the Eagles needing to win this game, this could be a monster performance from the 2^nd-year player.

RB: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis (vs. New England)

Taylor has been a beast this season, but he faces a very tough Patriots defense this week. For the football purist, this should be an amazing game.

WR: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay (vs. New Orleans)

Godwin has been targeted a whopping 32 times in the last two games. With the Buccaneers offense absolutely rolling, he’s a big player to watch this week versus the Saints. In Week 8 at New Orleans, Godwin caught 8 of 12 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown.

TE: Mark Andrews, Baltimore (vs. Green Bay)

Last week, Andrews caught all 11 of his targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. This season, among all tight ends, Andrews ranks:

• T-1^st in targets (109, Kelce)
• 1^st in receptions (75)
• 1^st in receiving yards (926)
• T-3^rd in receiving touchdowns (6)

Going against a Packers team in a game that’s likely to yield a positive passing script for the Ravens, Andrews has got to be TE1 this week.

FLEX: WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta (at San Francisco)

Patterson has scored double-digit points in 9 of his 13 games this season. He’s scored an average of 15.7 points per game over his last three games. This week, he faces a 49ers defense that allowed 397 total yards and 6.1 yards per play to the Bengals.

K: Harrison Butker, Kansas City (at Los Angeles Chargers)

Kansas City is a powerful offense that probably won’t be stopped on Thursday, but with a short week and a good enough Chargers defense, it could be slowed down at times. This is a great spot for the Chiefs kicker.

D/ST: Dallas (at New York Giants)

Believe it or not, the Cowboys defense/special teams went from scoring 109 fantasy points last year to scoring 197 fantasy points this year with three games yet to be played. They’ve scored at least 25 fantasy points in three of their last five games. When they hosted the Giants in Week 5, they scored a robust 18 points. With the top two Defensive Player of the Year candidates on the same defense, Dallas is poised to have a great day, in all phases, this Sunday in New York.