Ravens critics are so glad Baltimore lost to Green Bay because now they don’t have to confront their stupid takes. Now they don’t have to admit that, despite the plethora of injuries to star players, the Ravens are a really good team.
But it’s a new week, and everything the Ravens want is very much in front of them. A first round bye and a high playoff seed is nice, but for most of their existence, that hasn’t been the Ravens mo. They do their best postseason work when their seeding is in the middle of the table.
Coincidentally, that looks to be where they’ll end up when the regular season concludes.
On to Cincinnati.
Run, and stop the run
It seems like every week now I’m writing about the importance of Baltimore establishing their run game. It does so much good for a team when they’re able to pose a consistent running threat. Such teams can control the clock, game tempo, substitutions, etc. When a team is strong on the ground, they are really hard to beat.
Additionally, when a defense is having trouble stopping the run, they’re almost helpless. Take the last game between these two teams. Big pass plays by the Bengals got the Ravens reeling, but long runs finished them off. The score was 27-17 Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter, but even though it was a still a close game at that point, the Bengals went on to rip off 97 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries (6.9 yards per carry).
Baltimore has the personnel to dictate their run game plan on both sides of the ball. It just takes commitment by the coaches and execution by the players for a full four quarters to get the job done.
Limit big plays
Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense are fully capable of gashing opposing defenses. It sounds simple, but if the Ravens can keep the Bengals in check and make them earn every yard (as opposed to having lapses in coverages and missing tackles), they’ll have a good shot to win.
In the last game between these two teams, the Bengals racked up 520 yards of offense. Since then, the Ravens defense has averaged only 320 yards of offense given up per game. Clearly, and despite many important players missing, the defense has improved since the last time these teams faced off.
Baltimore surrendered 409 passing yards to Cincinnati in Week 7. The last time the Ravens gave up more than that was Week 14 of the 2017 season (57 games ago). They don’t even have to stop Burrow, Chase, and co., just contain them. Getting Chuck Clark and Jimmy Smith back will be a huge help, as well.
Turnovers!
Here are the last five Ravens seasons and the number of turnovers they’ve forced each year:
- 2020: 22
- 2019: 25
- 2018: 17
- 2017: 34
- 2016: 28
Over the last five season, the Ravens defense has averaged 1.58 forced turnovers per game. This season, they’ve forced only 11 turnovers (.79 per game). Literally, the Ravens are forcing half as many turnovers this season as they’ve averaged forcing over their last five season.
Baltimore is set to face the 22nd, 6th, and 8th-ranked teams (Bengals, Rams, Steelers) in terms of giveaways. Those last two games against the better teams are in Baltimore. As we’ve seen, this Ravens team plays many close games. With a stellar special teams unit and an extra possession or two, you have to think that’ll allow Baltimore to make a push to finish the year 11-6.
Vegas
The Bengals are currently 2 ½-point favorites in this game and the over/under is at 43 ½. Like when the Ravens play the Steelers in Pittsburgh, games against the Bengals in Cincinnati always seem to be close no matter who’s on the roster.
Baltimore knows a lot more now than they did before it got blown out by Cincinnati in Week 7. Either way, the game should be close, but the health of the Ravens’ defensive backfield will be a big key. At the end of the day, you have to think that a healthy Lamar Jackson will make the biggest difference.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 21
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.