Last week, we saw games played on five different days. It was exciting to watch, but kind of confusing to keep track of. Picks against the spread were 8-8, while point total picks were 10-6.
As we saw last week, positive covid cases can change rosters and gameplans without much notice. For the most part, though, we know who teams are and what they’re capable of.
Here are my picks for Week 16 (with a bonus bowl pick at the end).
THURSDAY 12/23
49ers (8-6) at Titans (9-5), 8:20 pm on NFL Network
Odds: San Francisco -3.5
Total: 44.5
Analysis: This is one of many games this week where both teams are in the thick of the playoff race. The 49ers are ascending, while the Titans are on a bit of a decline. This is reflected in the San Francisco being favored despite the game being played in Tennessee.
The health of Eli Mitchell will be a big key for the Niners, but even if he can’t go, I like San Francisco in a close, hard-fought contest.
Pick: San Francisco 23, Tennessee 20 (TEN +3.5, under 44.5)
SATURDAY 12/25 CHRISTMAS DAY
Browns (7-7) at Packers (11-3), 4:30 pm on FOX
Odds: Green Bay -7.5
Total: 45
Analysis: Cleveland lost a heartbreaker last Monday night and now go on the road in a virtual must-win situation to play perhaps the best team in the NFL (on a short week, no less). Green Bay has a strong case for the NFC’s top seed and have every intention on claiming it.
Pick: Green Bay 27, Cleveland 17 (GB -7.5, under 45)
Colts (8-6) at Cardinals (10-4), 8:15 pm on NFL Network
Odds: Arizona -1.5
Total: 49.5
Analysis: Suddenly the Cardinals look vulnerable. The Colts look like they’re getting hot at the right time. As the spread suggests, this game should be a toss-up. As good as Indy is playing, I think Arizona has enough in the tank to get the win.
Pick: Arizona 34, Indianapolis 33 (IND +1.5, over 49.5)
SUNDAY 12/26
Ravens (8-6) at Bengals (8-6), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: Cincinnati -2.5
Total: 44.5
Analysis: This is a huge game for both teams. Last season, when these two teams played in Cincinnati, Baltimore ran for over 400 yards. This season in Baltimore, the Bengals passed for over 400 yards. If Lamar Jackson is healthy, which is how things are trending, I think the Ravens win by a touchdown. If he’s not, I think the Bengals win by a field goal. Seeing as how Jackson was a game-time decision last week, I think he plays on Sunday.
Pick: Baltimore 30, Cincinnati 23 (BAL +2.5, over 44.5)
Rams (10-4) at Vikings (7-7)
Odds: Los Angeles -3
Total: 49
Analysis: The Rams look to be the better team, but the Vikings are always a threat with Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, especially at home. Jalen Ramsey should be ready to roll for this game, which will be a big help for the Rams. Speaking of L.A., quarterback Matthew Stafford knows this Vikings defense very well, and I believe that will be the difference in this game.
Pick: Los Angeles 28, Vikings 24 (LA -3, over 49)
Buccaneers (10-4) at Panthers (5-9), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Tampa Bay -10.5
Total: 44
Analysis: I was shocked the Buccaneers were shutout at home last week. Best believe they won’t be shutout again this week. They lose Chris Godwin (ACL tear) but gain Antonio Brown (return from suspension).
Pick: Tampa Bay 41, Carolina 10 (TB -10.5, over 44)
Giants (4-10) at Eagles (7-7), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Philadelphia -10
Total: 42
Analysis: Do the Giants have enough in them to spoil the Eagles’ playoff bid? Maybe. I think it’s a much closer game than the spread suggests, but I still think Philly gets the win.
Pick: Philadelphia 21, New York 16 (NYG +10, under 42)
Lions (2-11-1) at Falcons (6-8), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Atlanta -5.5
Total: 42.5
Analysis: The Lions had a huge win last week as they defeated a very good Cardinals team. Many times, after such relief, it’s hard to replicate such effort and results. However, if the Falcons lose another game this season, they will have posted a losing record in four straight years.
For betting purposes, I like the home team and the better quarterback—both of which favor Atlanta. But honestly, this is one of the harder games of the week to predict.
Pick: Atlanta 26, Detroit 20 (ATL -5.5, over 42.5)
Bills (8-6) at Patriots (9-5), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: New England -2.5
Total: 43.5
Analysis: Wow…what happened to the Bills? A team that once seemed like a Super Bowl contender (and still may be) has found themselves on the wrong side of the AFC East standings. Similarly, the Patriots lost a game last week in which the final score wasn’t indicative of how they were outplayed and outcoached.
In tough weather, I usually favor the better running team. Ironically, Buffalo has posted 120.9 rushing yards per game, while New England has posted 120.5 rushing yards per game.
If the Bills lose this game, they may be out of the playoffs altogether, and something tells me that’s not going to happen. Plus, when both quarterbacks are under pressure, there’s no question Buffalo’s is the more mobile of the two.
Pick: Buffalo 23, New England 17 (BUF +2.5, under 43.5)
Chargers (8-6) at Texans (3-11), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: Los Angeles -9
Total: 45.5
Analysis: Two teams going in opposite directions with very different rosters makes you think this game will be a blowout. It may be close for the first quarter or the first half, but after that it’s hard to see how the Texans remain competitive in this one.
Pick: Chargers 42, Texans 20 (LAC -9, over 45.5)
Jaguars (2-12) at Jets (3-11), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: New York -2.5
Total: 41.5
Analysis: The loser of this game will be in excellent position for the No. 1 draft pick in April. Although the players and coaches won’t acknowledge that’s a source of motivation—nor should they—it’s got to be on the collective minds of both fanbases.
It will be interesting to see the top two picks of this past draft class go head-to-head. Besides that, this game may be a tough watch.
Pick: Jacksonville 20, New York 17 (JAX +3.5, under 41.5)
Bears (4-10) at Seahawks (5-9), 4:05 pm on FOX
Odds: Seattle -7
Total: 43.5
Analysis: The Bears are now eliminated from the playoffs. Going on the road to Seattle in their very next game is not a good proposition for them. Seattle hasn’t performed to their standards this year, either, but there’s no question in my mind they have the edge in this one.
Pick: Seattle 24, Chicago 10 (SEA -7, under 43.5)
Broncos (7-7) at Raiders (7-7), 4:25 pm on CBS
Odds: Las Vegas -1.5
Total: 42.5
Analysis: This figures to be one of the most exciting games of the week. It features two divisional rivals with identical records needing to win to stay in realistic playoff contention.
Week 6 in Denver, when these two teams last played, the Raiders won, 34-24. Denver had a 9-minute advantage in time of possession but turned the ball over four times. I think Las Vegas’ pass rush and overall clutch play will be the two main differences in this game.
Pick: Las Vegas 28, Denver 21 (LV -1.5, over 42.5)
Steelers (7-6-1) at Chiefs (10-4), 4:25 pm on CBS
Odds: Kansas City -9.5
Total: 46
Analysis: This is a bad spot for the Steelers. I know they won in come-from-behind fashion last week against a good Titans squad, but the Chiefs are rolling now. It’s hard to see how Pittsburgh keeps this close. However, T.J. Watt can absolutely wreck this game for the Chiefs. He’s the league leader in sacks with 17.5, despite only playing in 12 games, and is on pace to finish this season with 22.0 sacks.
Pick: Kansas City 38, Pittsburgh 21 (KC -9.5, over 46)
Football Team (6-8) at Cowboys (10-4), 8:20 pm on NBC
Odds: Dallas -10.5
Total: 47.5
Analysis: Just two weeks ago, the Football Team lost to the Cowboys by a touchdown. Not enough has happened since then to make me think the outcome of this game will be any different—literally.
Pick: Dallas 27, Washington 20 (WFT +10.5, under 47.5)
MONDAY 12/27
Dolphins (7-7) at Saints (7-7), 8:15 pm on ESPN
Odds: New Orleans -3
Total: 39
Analysis: The point total in this game is shockingly low, but considering New Orleans’ resurgent defense, I guess it kind of makes sense.
After allowing 23 points per game thru their first 12 games, the Saints have allowed only nine points in their last two games combined. Miami, on the other hand, is on a 6-game winning streak—the 2nd longest streak in the NFL (Kansas City, 7). Either way this game turns out, it should be a great way to cap Week 16.
Pick: Miami 21, New Orleans 20 (MIA +3, over 39)
BONUS PICK: MILITARY BOWL, MONDAY 12/27
Boston College (6-6) vs. East Carolina (7-5), 2:30 pm on ESPN
Odds: BC- 3
Total: 51.5
Analysis: Seven of ECU’s 12 games this season have either been decided by four points or less or have gone to overtime. This game is taking place at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, where ECU beat Navy, 38-35, just one month ago. But in their last game (at Cincinnati), the Pirates gained only 282 yards—a 10-game low.
Boston College started the year winning four straight, then lost four straight, then won two in a row, and then lost two in a row. On the whole, BC has only a plus-70 advantage in total yards. The total cumulative score in their games: 296-266. Clearly, they play teams very close.
As their records and the spread indicated, this looks to be a close, but exciting game.
Pick: East Carolina 27, Boston College 24 (ECU +3, under 51.5)
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.