This is it. The last week of the first ever 18-week season is here.
For most teams, it provides a much-needed lifeline to make their case for the playoffs one last time. For others that have already made it, it represents one last chance to make a bid for a home game or possibly a bye in the first round.
Don’t forget coaches, either. They’re making their case to stay employed or, in a sense, auditioning for their next role or promotion. Everyone is motivated to give their all. Not to mention, every game this week is a divisional game, so there’s plenty of unresolved feelings between these teams and fan bases.
From a betting standpoint, last week was a bit rough. Picks against the spread were 7-10 (23-26 overall) while picks of the point total were 8-8-1 (22-25-2 overall). But this is a new week! Let’s have a great one.
SATURDAY 1/8
Chiefs (11-5) at Broncos (7-9), 4:30 PM on ESPN
Odds: Kansas City -10
Total: 44
Analysis: The Chiefs are still vying for the top seed in the AFC, while the Broncos are out of the playoffs. This looks to be a tough one for Denver.
Pick: Kansas City 28, Denver 20 (DEN +10, over 44)
Cowboys (11-5) at Eagles (9-7), 8:15 pm on ESPN
Odds: Dallas -7
Total: 42.5
Analysis: Dallas has already clinched the NFC East, but in their current standing they’d host Arizona next week—the team that just came to their stadium and beat them. Philadelphia, on the other hand, will be on the road in the playoffs, so this will be their last home game of the season.
With the loss of wide receiver Michael Gallup, Dallas’ offense could sputter at times. Can Philadelphia take advantage of those mistakes?
Pick: Philadelphia 24, Dallas 20 (PHI +7, over 42.5)
SUNDAY 1/9
Steelers at Ravens, 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: Baltimore -3.5
Total: 42
Analysis: Not much needs to be said.
Pick: Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 23 (PIT +3.5, over 42)
Bengals (10-6) at Browns (7-9), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Cleveland -1.5
Total: 41.5
Analysis: Somehow the Browns are favored in this one, but that’s likely because the oddsmakers believe Joe Burrow will be inactive. The Browns pass rush is fierce, as is their run game, so if this game remains close in the beginning (which I think it will), I give the advantage to Cleveland.
Pick: Cleveland 26, Cincinnati 23 (CLE -1.5, over 41.5)
Football Team (6-10) at Giants (4-12), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Washington -6.5
Total: 38.5
Analysis: The only divisional win that Washington has this year is a 1-point victory over New York all the way back in Week 2. The Giants are a mess, but they are playing at home. I think Washington wins an ugly one, but I’m taking the Giants and the points.
Pick: Washington 20, New York 14 (NYG +6.5, under 38.5)
Packers (13-3) at Lions (2-13-1), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Green Bay -2.5
Total: 44
Analysis: As far as playoff seeding is concerned, the Packers have nothing to play for. A win for the Lions will only destroy their chances at gaining the top pick in April’s draft. Even if Jordan Love lines up under center for the Packers, I don’t see how Green Bay just falls apart. Expect a big day from Packers running back A.J. Dillon.
Pick: Green Bay 30, Detroit 20 (GB -2.5, over 44)
Bears (6-10) at Vikings (7-9), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Minnesota -2.5
Total: 44.5
Analysis: Despite the records of both teams, this is going to feature one of the best matchups of the week, with Justin Jefferson going up against Chicago’s secondary. Just three weeks ago, Chicago lost to Minnesota at home, 17-9, but held Jefferson to four receptions for 47 yards (and one touchdown). Even if Jefferson scores, that yardage total is a win for the defense as he’s averaging 94 receiving yards per game this season.
I think Chicago’s defense will keep it close and give Bear’s quarterback Justin Fields just enough opportunities to put points on the board (if he’s cleared to play).
Pick: Chicago 17, Minnesota 16 (CHI +2.5, under 44.5)
Titans (11-5) at Texans (4-12), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: Tennessee -10.5
Total: 43
Analysis: Houston has played teams very tough as of late, but Titans running back is expected to be back for this game (or at least be available).
That’s not good news for anyone playing the Titans.
Pick: Tennessee 31, Houston 13 (TEN -10.5, over 43)
Colts (9-7) at Jaguars (2-14), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: Indianapolis -15.5
Total: 44
Analysis: A lot of teams need Jacksonville to pull the upset here, but the Colts are fighting for a playoff spot. Stranger things have happened, but frankly I don’t see the Jaguars coming out on top.
Pick: Indianapolis 26, Jacksonville 10 (IND -15.5, under 44)
Saints (8-8) at Falcons (7-9), 4:25 pm on FOX
Odds: New Orleans -4.5
Total: 40
Analysis: This rivalry is always a closely contested game. Look for Matt Ryan to make a push for a significant record here. He’s 481 passing yards away from becoming the 7th quarterback ever to throw for at least 60,000 yards. New Orleans is allowing roughly half that many passing yards per game (226.6), and Ryan’s per game average against the Saints is closer to 300 (296). His career TD/INT ratio in New Orleans is 2:1 (22 TD, 11 INT).
Even if Atlanta doesn’t win, they should have opportunities to “pad the stats.”
Pick: Atlanta 21, New Orleans 20 (ATL +4.5, over 40)
49ers (9-7) at Rams (12-4), 4:25 pm on FOX
Odds: Los Angeles -4.5
Total: 44.5
Analysis: This game features two very good teams that have a lot in common:
- Young head coaches that recently reached (and lost) a Super Bowl
- Young, diverse running game
- Very good tight ends
- Versatile, dynamic wide receiver
- Elite pass rusher
Besides the Ravens and Steelers, I think this will be the best game of Week 18. Pay no attention to the records. I think 49ers quarterback Trey Lance will be the x-factor.
Pick: Los Angeles 24, San Francisco 19 (LAR -4.5, under 44.5)
Seahawks (6-10) at Cardinals (11-5), 4:25 pm on FOX
Odds: Arizona -6.5
Total: 48
Analysis: Could this be Russell Wilson’s last game as a Seahawk? Possibly. Traditionally, he hasn’t been as successful against Arizona as he has been against most other teams. How Seattle’s 30th-ranked defense performs will have a lot to say about whether the Seahawks can end their season with a victory for the third time in four years.
Pick: Arizona 28, Seattle 19 (ARI -6.5, under 48)
Jets (4-12) at Bills (10-6), 4:25 pm on CBS
Odds: Buffalo -17
Total: 43.5
Analysis: This is a massive spread, but I think the Bills cover. They’re better, at home, and have a lot to play for. It’ll be very hard for the Jets to duplicate the success they had last week against the Buccaneers this week against the Bills.
Pick: Buffalo 31, New York 13 (BUF -17, over 43.5)
Patriots (10-6) at Dolphins (8-8), 4:25 pm on CBS
Odds: New England -6.5
Total: 40
Analysis: The Dolphins have beaten the Patriots three of the last four times they’ve played. However, the Patriots never go down without a fight. New England is 6-1 on the road this year.
I think both teams will turn the ball over a couple of times. New England is +10 and Miami is -3 in turnover margin this year. In a very close, physical game, I’d take the Patriots to score a few more points off turnovers and ultimately win, but the Dolphins to cover.
Pick: New England 22, Miami 17 (MIA +6.5, under 40)
Panthers (5-11) at Buccaneers (12-4), 4:25 pm on CBS
Odds: Tampa Bay -8
Total: 42.5
Analysis: As much as this game screams the Buccaneers will win, they’re without Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, and potentially Ronald Jones II. Knowing that, how much is it worth for the Buccaneers to leave Brady in, given that Tampa Bay cannot gain the NFC’s top seed?
Carolina hasn’t exactly been inspiring confidence as of late, either. They rank 29th in the league in scoring offense, so to win this game they better hope their defense can dominate.
Two weeks ago, the Panthers hosted the Buccaneers and lost, 32-6. Tom Brady only passed for 232 yards and one touchdown in that one, so it stands to reason the Panthers will have a good chance to be competitive this week.
Pick: Carolina 19, Tampa Bay 17 (CAR +8, under 42.5)
Chargers (9-7) at Raiders (9-7), 8:20 pm on NBC
Odds: Los Angeles -2.5
Total: 48.5
Analysis: This game features the highest point total of the week, as both teams have a win-and-in scenario. Given they’re also arch-rivals, it’s no surprise why this game was flexed to be the regular season finale.
Justin Herbert should be the best player of the field Sunday night but playing against the Raiders when they’re at home is never an easy proposition.
This game, really, should be a pick ‘em. The x-factor, in my opinion, will be Raiders’ kicker Daniel Carlson. In a close game, you want a playmaking quarterback and a stone-cold kicker. As good as the Chargers are, I have to give the slight edge to the Raiders in this game.
Pick: Raiders 28, Chargers 27 (LV +2.5, over 48.5)
BONUS PICK: CFB NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Monday 1/10, 8:00 pm on ESPN
Alabama (13-1) vs. Georgia (13-1)
Odds: Georgia -3
Total: 52
Analysis: On December 4th in the SEC Championship, Alabama rolled to a 41-24 victory over then undefeated Georgia. The Bulldogs had the ball for nine more minutes than the Crimson Tide, but also committed two turnovers to Alabama’s zero.
Both teams are fearless and should come out firing. But until Georgia beats Bama in a big game, there’s no reason they should be favored.
Pick: Alabama 30, Georgia 24 (ALA +3, over 52)
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.