Crank up the hot stove, pull out the sunscreen, embrace the sound of mits popping, and pull up the old transaction log to try and remember what in the world happened across baseball more than three months ago because Major League Baseball is back!
With the lockout now over, teams have turned to finalizing their rosters for the 2022 season and conducting league business again, but just how active will the Baltimore Orioles be? Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander have been thrown around as possible trade pieces, the rotation is currently John Means, Jordan Lyles, and a bunch of question marks, and while the outfield situation is strong in Baltimore, there are a few big needs in the infield.
The external options have been analyzed by others plenty of times and with reports surfacing of a fast and furious hot stove behind the scenes waiting to burst, a look at possible free agent signings for the Orioles could be obsolete by the time I finish writing this, so I thought I would look internally at a few names who are in a prime position to make an impact in the big leagues this season, but come with a lot of question marks.
A question I’d like to see answered in 2022- will any of these surprise players breakout and stick in 2022?
Each of these players are considered long shots, but after showing promising development in 2021 down on the farm and having some familiarity waiting for them in the big leagues (see new co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller), can a spark of magic occur for any of these players?
I should probably mention that I’m just going to look at a small handful of hitters in this piece, no pitchers right now. Also, none of these players are currently on the Orioles 40-man roster.
IF Patrick Dorrian
Dorrian’s path to Baltimore was a long and winding road, and he’s a fun story that highlights the fact that you just never know what you will get out of some players, or when. He spent his first full season with the Orioles (and just second full season of pro ball) playing in Double-A Bowie, finishing with a .242/.354/.461 slash line with 22 home runs, 21 doubles, a 14.6 percent walk rate, and a 128 wRC+ (includes four Triple-A games at the end of the season).
Dorrian’s play warranted a promotion to AAA earlier in the season, but with a crowded infield in Norfolk, keeping Dorrian’s bat in the lineup full-time in Bowie wasn’t a terrible idea. He more than doubled his home run total from 2019 (just 10 in six fewer ABs), showcased a keen eye at the plate and was very quietly one of the top hitters in a loaded Bowie lineup.
“He knows the strike zone incredibly well. If it’s a ball, he knows it’s a ball and he can go opposite-field home run or pull side home run. He uses the field really well and that is a special feat for a Double-A player to control the zone like he does and spray the ball around the ballpark.” said Ryan Fuller in an interview with MASN’s Steve Melewski last September.
Defensively, Dorrian played primarily at third base, a big need for the Orioles at the big league level. Kelvin Gutierrez has the glove, but no bat, Rougned Odor could easily be an end of camp cut, an eye-popping late season power surge from Rylan Bannon received nothing more than a “we’re always evaluating” from Mike Elias in regards to a possible call-up, and that’s about it as far as third base options go.
Can Dorrian hold down the hot corner in the big leagues? Yes. You aren’t going to mistake him for Manny Machado at third base, but he showed that he can make all the routine plays and more with a good arm that created a number of highlight reel defensive plays last season.
Strikeouts were an issue for Dorrian and he’s hit just .233 (A+ in 2019) and .246 (AA in 2021) since joining the organization, but the power surge was real, as is his plate discipline. The 25-year-old lefty could really put himself on the radar with a big spring training and if the Orioles don’t bring in another veteran stopgap option, Dorrian should get his opportunity in the big leagues at some point in 2022. If you’re a fan of projections, ZiPS projects a .215/.288/.374 season with 15 HR across 114 games (1.1 fWAR).
OF Robert Neustrom
Just like Dorrian, one of Neustrom’s goals for the 2021 season was to tap into more of his raw power and turn it into game power. Mission accomplished. Neustrom also more than doubled his career-high in home runs, mashing 16 across AA/AAA and chipping in 31 doubles. Seeing essentially the same number of plate appearances at each level, Neustrom finished with an OPS of .831 in AA and .748 in AAA, highlighted by a combined walk rate of 11 percent.
Neustrom was on no one’s radar going into 2021 after injuries disrupted his first pro season in 2019, but now he has a loyal following of fans who were more than happy to see the recent cancellation of the Rule 5 draft, eliminating any possibility of another team poaching him. Despite not being added to the 40-man over the winter, the Orioles are still clearly intrigued about both Neustrom and Dorrian’s potential, having both players at mini-camps over the last few weeks. And it’s pretty much been the same story for all of Neustrom’s career. Overlooked in college at Iowa, overlooked as an Orioles prospect, and now overlooked as a potential big league contributor by many.
“It only motivates me more and honestly, it only just lights a fire a little more,” Neustrom said in a recent interview with the Des Moines Register.
Neustrom has worked extensively on improving his outfield defense and adjusting to offspeed and breaking balls at the plate in preparation for spring training where he will have his work cut out for him to break through. Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander already make up a solid outfield group, with Ryan McKenna also having earned more at-bats in the majors (I’m going to lose it if I see McKenna in Norfolk for another at-bat). Kyle Stowers is also knocking on the doors of the majors after leading the organization in home runs and playing at three levels in 2021. What’s that? DJ Stewart and Yusniel Diaz? Yeah…no.
It will be interesting to see how the outfield situation shakes out and Robert Neustrom hammering his way into the thick of the conversation will make the entire situation even more exciting. He was doubted in college and has been doubted at every step of professional ball since, but here he is, coming off a solid year in Double-A and Triple-A in the league’s top farm system. Give me the underdog every single time.
IF Cadyn Grenier
Barrel the baseball and do damage. It’s a goal every Orioles minor league hitter went to the plate hoping to achieve with each at-bat last season. Over at On The Verge, we recently interviewed Orioles minor league outfielder Lamar Sparks, who said he closely monitored his barrel percentage at each practice session and game, knowing that even if he went 0/4 that night, if he was able to barrel two or three balls, he could chalk it up as a successful night. Why? Because hard-hit balls that are driven in the air lead to base hits.
When you think of home run threats who mash baseballs, Cadyn Grenier’s name probably doesn’t quickly come to your mind, but the former second round pick out of Oregon State and defensive wizard followed the successful trend of Orioles minor league hitters turning their impressive raw power into more game power, launching a career-high number of home runs in Double-A.
The glove has been major league ready for a while now and he’s always shown a good ability to get on base, but high strikeout totals and low batting averages has followed Grenier in his pro career. Just like Dorrian and Neustrom, Grenier has his doubters, but he also has some notable supporters.
FanGraphs has Grenier as the 29th-ranked prospect on their latest top Orioles prospects list. From his blurb written by Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein,
“His odd swing hampers his ability to make contact, but because of his feel for the zone and power, Grenier’s overall offensive performance has been just shy of league average, which is pretty good for such a sound middle infield defender. He’s in a crowded field of role-playing prospects and was left off Baltimore’s 40-man, so consider Grenier upper-level depth for now, but gloves like his tend to find their way onto a big league bench.”
Unless the Orioles add a veteran shortstop within the next few days (Andrelton Simmons is now with the Cubs so my top option is off the board), we are probably going to see a rotating door of bodies at shortstop with Ramon Urias, Jorge Mateo, and Richie Martin in the mix. Urias as a full-time second base option in 2022 is pretty decent, but I’m skeptical of him holding down the shortstop position full-time and Mateo/Martin are less than inspiring candidates.
There’s an extremely long list of highly-touted middle infield prospects in the system, but none quite ready for the big leagues, leaving a big opportunity for Cadyn Grenier to see some time in the majors. He knows the bat and strikeouts need work and that’s been a priority for Grenier this offseason, so we’ll see if all of his offseason work translates to the field this spring. To hear from Grenier himself on this, he was a recent guest on Locked On Orioles which I encourage you to check out.
Two years ago you wouldn’t find very many people who were big believers in any of these three players, and now all three are coming off impressive seasons in the upper levels of the minors and have a clear path to the major leagues in 2022 right in front of them. Will any of them take advantage of this opportunity? The next few weeks will tell us more, but I’m very excited to watch it all unfold.
Orioles Analyst
A former high school teacher and coach in the mountains of Virginia, Nick Stevens has been writing about the Baltimore Orioles and their minor league system for five years. When he isn’t at a minor league stadium, he’s enjoying a Wizards game or supporting his alma mater, James Madison University. Co-Host of The Verge.