Spring Training is meant to be a time of hope and renewal. For the 2022 Baltimore Orioles, “hope” is in scant supply. Fans of most clubs can say “if X, Y, and Z go in our favor, we should be golden.” The expanded postseason only makes it easier to dream. The Orioles need more than X, Y, and Z. They need an entire alphabet of variables to break their way.
However, after finishing 52-110 last season, there is a path to improvement. Respectability. The internet is festooned with projections and predictions. Let’s check in on some of the most notable. Baseball Prospectus believes the Orioles are in line for 61 wins. FanGraphs* says 64 wins. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system also says 64 wins – at least as of February 2. Ominously, the O’s division rivals have only added talent since then. For the bettors in the crowd, the DraftKings sportsbook splits the difference with a 62.5-win line.
*For those who care about the details, the FanGraphs system is calculated using an average of ZiPS and Steamer projections with plate appearance estimates supplied by a panel of staffers.
There is another way we can approach this process – by counting Wins Above Replacement (WAR). A team of generic, free players is expected to win between 48 and 52 games. Incidentally, that’s what the 2021 Orioles accomplished despite an exceptional performance from Cedric Mullins. Using Derek Carty’s THE BAT X, Baltimore projects for 14.8 hitter WAR and 4.5 pitcher WAR. This implies between 67 and 71 wins.
So why the discrepancy between counts of WAR and the most popular standings projections? In a word, context. As noted, the 2021 Orioles posted a replacement level win total despite the good work of Mullins, John Means, Austin Hays, Ramon Urias, and Ryan Mountcastle. Even Matt Harvey, Cole Sulser, and Tyler Wells were solid contributors. This happened because their division rivals were four of the eight best teams in all of baseball. Since 76 of their games were played against these juggernauts, they underperformed expectations.
This will again be a problem in 2022. All four of the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Rays are poised to eclipse 90 wins. The Orioles, sadly, remain the whipping dogs of the division. They are, as constructed, a 67-to-71-win club when playing hypothetical 81-win (.500) clubs. Since they’ll play just shy of half their games against 90-win (.555) clubs, they’ll likely fall short of the 67-to-71-win range. Just like last year.
And yet, there are still reasons to watch this team as it prepares to embark on what many hope is the last transition season between ignominy and respectability. They moved back the left field fence at notoriously homer-friendly Camden Yards. The new dimensions should help a very left-handed pitching staff. The likes of John Means, Bruce Zimmermann, Keegan Akin, and Zac Lowther all benefit from more room in the outfield. Of course, moving the fence is a double-edged sword. Among others, Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini, and Austin Hays could see their home run totals negatively impacted. The fence giveth and taketh. Projections do not yet account for this change. The pitchers could conceivably perform much better than expected.
The projections are also reserved with regard to expectations for Mullins. His 2021 breakout was predicated at least in part upon better management of his Crohn’s disease. When a player performs as he did last season, the default expectation is for “regression to the mean.” In other words – he’ll play more like an ordinary outfielder (i.e. Anthony Santander) than a superstar. The Crohn’s diagnosis potentially lends room for optimism – he could build upon 2021 instead of suffering an inevitable decline. Notably, Mullins, a left-handed batter, hit all 30 of his home runs to the right of straightaway center field. He is not affected by the new park dimensions.
Adley Rutschman, currently sidelined with a minor triceps injury, is included in the above-referenced projections. He’s expected to be a league average player in his debut but could easily exceed that low bar. You’re going to hear a lot about Rutschman this season. He is the most widely-anticipated catching prospect since the arrivals of Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, and Matt Wieters.
Not included in the projections are other notable prospects. Kyle Stowers is projected for seven plate appearances. Grayson Rodriguez, for 16 innings. D.L. Hall and Kyle Bradish are also poised to join the pitching staff. Terrin Vavra, Jordan Westburg, and Gunnar Henderson could earn late-season auditions.
In Stowers, the club has a potent (if strikeout prone) mid-lineup slugger to slot behind Rutschman, Mullins, Mountcastle, and Mancini. He’s already graduated from Double-A and showed well during a brief stint in Triple-A. Rodriguez thrived in Double-A last season. He’s widely acclaimed as the top pitching prospect in all of baseball and seemingly has little to prove in Triple-A. He could join the rotation by the summer months if not sooner. Expect the Orioles to handle him carefully – he threw just 103 innings last season. Bradish handled a similar workload, mostly at Triple-A, and could break camp with a role in the rotation. Since he’s already 25, there’s little reason to play games with his service clock. Hall is considered among the top left-handed pitching prospects. He’s struggled with health including elbow tendinitis and a stress reaction last season. The Orioles could take a page from the division-rival Rays and use him as a bulk reliever out of the gate. His stuff is Major League-ready despite a lack of Triple-A experience.
Look also to the waiver wire for exciting, low-cost acquisitions. The Giants used the wire in recent years to cobble together a 107-win club – mostly out of spare parts. The Orioles can offer castaways opportunities in the middle infield, third base, corner outfield, and various pitching roles. Along the way, they should uncover a few diamonds in the rough, just as the Giants found key role players like Darin Ruf, Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Thairo Estrada, Tony Watson, and Dominic Leone. Who will fill those shoes for the Orioles?
Brad Johnson is a fantasy baseball analyst for NBC SportsEDGE. He also contributes to “Front Office” content at MLB Trade Rumors. You can additionally find his work and support him directly at Patreon.com/BaseballATeam or follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam.