The Orioles have drifted within the purgatory of rebuild for the last five seasons. A quick gander at the expected 2022 roster quickly confirms the club has no plans to exit the rebuild this season. However, things are moving in the right direction. All those early draft picks are beginning to bear fruit. Of the club’s top prospects, eight have been taken within the first two rounds of the draft. The remaining pair are fourth-rounders. While the coming wave of early picks is a good thing, it also highlights a shortcoming of the Orioles development system – international talent. But that’s a topic for another day. In this article, I’d like to examine how the Orioles compare to a recent high-profile rebuild – the Houston Astros.
I’ve chosen the Astros for this exercise rather than a team like the Cubs, Phillies, or White Sox for a few reasons. The Phillies had poor luck with the timing of their tank. Instead of developing their way back to relevancy as the tanking model prescribes, they’ve mostly focused on large free agent signings and trade acquisitions. Whiffing as badly as Mickey Moniak on a first overall pick generally leads to a delayed rebuild. The Cubs also received a degree of fiscal support that… how should I put this gently… might exceed what we can expect for the Orioles. Meanwhile, the Sox never really delved into an organized rebuild in my opinion. They were just poorly run. Tanking by default rather than by design. Kind of like the pre-Elias years. The Astros, meanwhile, have relatively similar resources to the Orioles, mostly thanks to the uneven revenue split of MASN. Houston is, technically, about two times bigger a media market than Baltimore, but they also don’t get 77 percent of the media revenue from two clubs.
The 2022 Orioles would probably like to believe they’re the 2014 Astros. You see, the 2013 Astros tossed up a spiffy 51 wins in 2013 before improving to 70-92 in 2014. Then they partially turned the corner with an 86- and 84-win season before reeling off a streak of three seasons of over 100 wins from 2017-2019. That’s a six-year tank-and-rebuild process with seven good seasons and counting on the backend. The Orioles happen to be entering their sixth season of belligerent ineptitude.
That 2013 Astros roster was headlined by some fun names from baseball’s past. Bud Norris was still starting. Erik Bedard had his last hurrah – a 4-12 season in which he posted a 4.59 ERA. Dallas Keuchel pitched his first full season – a 5.15 ERA that overshadowed strong peripherals. New face of the Orioles, Jordan Lyles, also tossed 141.2 innings. Very bad innings.
On the hitting side, catcher Jason Castro stood above all the others. His 3.9 WAR season included excellent defense and a .276/.350/.485 batting line in 491 plate appearances. The only other hitter to reach 1.0 WAR (exactly) was Carlos Corporan. You remember Carlos Corporan. Right? Busted prospects like Chris Carter, Brett Wallace, Fernando Martinez, Matt Dominguez, and Justin Maxwell filled much of the roster. The ghosts of Rick Ankiel and Carlos Pena put in appearances. Also present were J.D. Martinez, Jose Altuve, Jonathan Villar, Robbie Grossman, and Max Stassi. All but Grossman performed terribly. Altuve looked like a joke, putting up 0.5 WAR and a punchless .283/.316/.363 triple-slash in 672 plate appearances.
The parallels aren’t perfect. Cedric Mullins was the Jason Castro, but the 2021 performances of Austin Hays, Ramon Urias, Ryan Mountcastle, and even Freddy Galvis blew away the ‘Stros second-best position player. Of course, they 2021 Orioles gave that all away on the pitching side where only John Means and Cole Sulser had decent campaigns.
If Houston’s history is any indication, some of the players on this Baltimore roster are going to turn out to be pretty decent. Hindsight, of course, is 20/20. Perhaps the breakouts waiting to happen are Pedro Severino and Maikel Franco. They’re still in their primes and consistently underperform their above average exit velocities. Too bad they’re already gone. Maybe. Hopefully, someone like Anthony Santander, D.J. Stewart, Jorge Mateo, or Ramon Urias can pop as a useful complementary piece. Perhaps Ryan Mountcastle is the Jose Altuve of this group. A very different Altuve. Hays might be the J.D. Martinez – the guy they give up on a year too soon. Or maybe that’s Santander. Or none of them! Lot of “maybes” here, try to keep up.
In 2014, the Astros benefitted from Altuve’s first good season. He wasn’t a power hitter yet, but he delivered a lovely .341/.377/.453 line with 56 steals. Castro again played well, and he was joined by Dexter Fowler, Marwin Gonzalez, George Springer’s debut, Carter’s only decent season, and Corporan. Enrique Hernandez, Domingo Santana, Villar, and Grossman played their parts too, though they didn’t stick around much longer. Collin McHugh and Keuchel headlined a group that wasn’t quite ready for prime time.
We can see how the 2022 Orioles might be similar. The pitching staff clearly isn’t there yet. Means is a decent approximation of Keuchel, at least in terms rough ability. We hope Kyle Bradish, D.L. Hall, or Grayson Rodriguez will appear and thrive. Existing personnel like Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, Bruce Zimmermann, or Zac Lowther could find a little extra juice. On the hitting side, we’ll see Adley Rutschman about as much as those 2014 Astros saw Springer. Kyle Stowers is on the way. As we heard last Tuesday, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, and Joey Ortiz are drawing rave reviews from internal sources and already have a bit of Double-A experience.
The point, basically, is this. From our perspective as outsiders to the organization, we’re left holding ephemeral hopes and dreams. The classic sort of what-ifs that most flimsy clubs take to Spring Training and try to sell to their stakeholders until the dream finally turns into a nightmare in June or August. Our nightmare starts now, but it could end on a pleasing note. What worked for the Astros might not translate to the Orioles. With the benefit of hindsight, we can point with certainty to the quality of their personnel. These O’s, meanwhile, remain a mystery. Houston also didn’t have to deal with the four-headed juggernaut of the AL East. They arose into the midst of a weak AL West. Who knows, maybe the O’s surge as the Red Sox and Yankees crumble and the Rays finally lose their magic beans?
Brad Johnson is a fantasy baseball analyst for NBC SportsEDGE. He also contributes to “Front Office” content at MLB Trade Rumors. You can additionally find his work and support him directly at Patreon.com/BaseballATeam or follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam.