Window 5 of the Ocho went pretty much like the other 4. A mixed bag although one could argue that the side actually had its best window and I am in that camp.
Overall I believe that all things considered that the team played its best 3 game window. They were much closer to the full 9 points than the final standings indicate. I’ll give a little more insight into this view in the game analyses. But first lets look at a couple of key things we know at this point.
First, although an imperfect metric, expected goals (xG) is a decent method to describe how a team is playing. Over the14 matches in the Ocho you can get a decent picture of how a team actually performed compared to their results and whether or not a team got a few lucky or unlucky breaks. In theory, over a large number of matches a teams record would closely follow their xG-xG allowed. Certainly the WC a Group Stage comprised of just 3 matches is a short sample size and teams can easily have results outside their xG differential. But it does at least give you an indication going in as to our chances. So take a look at the overall Ocho final standings based upon xGs.
What stands out in that table is just what the eye test told us. The US didn’t finish their chances well (nor did Mexico) and Canada seemed to dodge some serious bullets when it came to goals allowed. The good news for US fans is that they have the potential to be a much improved team come Qatar.
Second, and most important is that the draw has been completed and the US is in Group B with England, Iran, and the Euro playoff winner which will be Wales facing off against the winner of Scotland and Ukraine. I’ll do a full WC preview this call but at first glance this Group is tough but doable. And this pairs them with Group A for the knockout round which potentially gives them a winnable match.
So lets take a quick look back at the last 3 matches.
US vs Mexico
The US came out with a high intensity game plan and it worked almost to perfection. Almost. Gregg Berhalter had a lineup and tactics designed to frustrate Mexico and get a result at the famed Azteca. Well the got the result with a 0-0 draw but easily could have won that match and in fact should have.
The US had 4 shots on goal, including 2 big chances, compared to Mexico’s 2 shots on goal and 0 big chances. The US also had 4 corners compared to Mexico’s 1. Christian Pulisic and Jordan Pefok both missed sitters on superb passes from Tim Weah and Gio Reyna respectively. At the end of the game El Tri had been outplayed on their home turf and their fans booed them when the final whistle was blown. Too funny!!
The biggest after the fact downside of the trip to Mexico is the stomach bug that ran through the team. On the order of 30 players and staff members became ill and I think that played a toll on the team come the Costa Rica match.
US vs Panama
This was my first visit to a soccer specific stadium and color me impressed. MLS has gotten this right. Sure its awesome to have a match with 70,000 fans but there is something special about the closeness you feel in a stadium like Exploria. And the operations staff for Exploria delivered a terrific match day experience. The announcer really got the crowd into it and the fireworks matched those going on the field.
As we walked to our seats we knew we were in for something special. The atmosphere was electric and the demeanor of the players warming up was one of high energy and confidence. I expected to see Gio Reyna in the starting lineup but alas he was on the bench. It was the next day before I learned about the health issues affecting the team and why Reyna was not starting.
When the teams marched out and they played the National Anthems it was a special feeling that is hard to describe. Of all the sporting events I have been to the crowd sang our National Anthem louder than I had ever heard and for the next 2 hours there were 22,000 fans there that put any differences aside. We were all simply Americans rooting on our team.
The game started and Panama was pressing for an early goal and the US had a couple of scary moments early. Goalkeeper, Zach Steffen, who was solid in Mexico, seemed a bit “off.” But in the 14th minute Walker Zimmerman earned a penalty kick and Christian Pulisic made it count. Form then on it was game on. The key stats tell a pretty good picture of how it looked in person.
The US outshot Panama 15-10, had 3 corners to 2, and had 4 big chances to 1. And here is the biggie. Of the 4 big chances the US scored ALL 4. After months of struggling to finish we found some form in this match! A big 5-1 win and the only real disappointment was losing the clean slate late in the match.
At one point Steffen was knocked down and seemed hurt, perhaps his back again. In fact Ethan Horvath was warming up and I expected Steffen to get subbed off but he stayed in. Curious to say the least and I think that would come back to haunt us 3 days later.
The coolest play in the match was the hat trick score of Pulisic. Check this out! Thats world class and we need to see this type of control and finish in Qatar.
US vs Costa Rica
What a lot of fans don’t know is that the US has historically struggled at Costa Rica and actually have gotten more positive results in Mexico than Costa Rica! The biggest surprise to me was that Steffen came out as the keeper. I fully expected to see Horvath based upon the apparent physical issues of Steffen. That surprise ended up being foretelling. Many fans and even some top soccer writers thought that the US played poorly and were not prepared. Not that way I say that match at all.
Take a look at these stats:
Possession – 65 to 35
Shots – 15-12
Corners 12-3
Big Chances 1-1
Passes 506-271
Long Balls 65%-26%
Duels Won 48-36
Aerials Won 14-8
Tackles 12-12
Interceptions 15-9
Fouls 9-17
As ugly as the result was and yes the US did not play as well as they did in the first two matches of the window they played more than well enough to have gotten a result. But this game showed in spades why keepers (yes I am biased) are the most important player on the field.
Here’s the bottom line. Swap Kaylor Navas (CR keeper) and Zack Steffen and the US wins that match easily. This was a poor match for Steffen. No two ways about it.
Composite Player Reviews
Zack Steffen – 5. Good, ok, poor. Lots can happen over the next 6 months but there’s a pretty good chance that he isn’t at the top of the depth chart right now.
Antonee Robinson – 7.5. Jedi is growing by leaps and bounds. Kid has an incredible motor and didn’t seem to tire until late in the Costa Rica match. 270 minutes in less than a week is nuts.
Miles Robinson – 7.5. Started a little shaky in Mexico but calmed right down. Defended well and drew a penalty against Panama.
Walker Zimmerman – 7. Solid defensively and drew a penalty against Panama. Monster defender but did get scored on twice on set pieces. Still a terrific set of matches.
DeAndre Yedlin – 6. Did was needed in this two starts against Mexico and Costa Rica. Nothing flashy but has the experience and smarts to play within himself.
Shaq Moore – 7. Solid defensively in the Panama match after having to join the team late due to Yedlin having to miss that match due to yellow card accumulation. And had some decent runs up the right supporting the attack.
Aaron Long – 7. Two solid second half performances as a substitute. Probably earned more minutes and a depth roster spot for Qatar.
Erik Palmer-Brown – 7. A late sub at RB which is not his position and he showed well for himself.
Tyler Adams – 7. Solid set of matches although some of his passing was a bit off. But a leader on the field and smart enough to head off potential disasters. When Panama threw the ball at Christian Pulisic, Adams was smart enough to grab him and pull him away potentially avoiding a red card.
Kellyn Acosta – 6. Solid defensively but his passing moving forward are just not quite there. But he did fine in place of the missing Weston McKennie.
Yunas Musah – 5. A couple of fair matches followed up with a good one. He is clearly better playing next to McKennie but is dribbling and passing make him a big asset.
Luca de la Torre – 7. My behind the scenes MOTM for the Panama game. Guy just has terrific vision and not afraid to move the ball forward. Likely got himself into the mix for Qatar as a rotation player.
Gianluca Busio – 5. A decent 20 minutes against Panama. Did make any major contributions but didn’t make any errors either.
Christian Pulisic – 7.5. Missed a sitter against Mexico that would have been the match winner but holy cow what a performance against Panama. And he was very good against Costa Rica. Unfortunately as happens FAR too often in CONCACAF, the referee allowed CR to foul Pulisic to death. This won’t happen at the WC.
Tim Weah – 6. Good against Mexico getting off numerous quality crosses after good runs down the wing. But that play was missing against CR.
Paul Arriola – 7. A dang fine 45 minutes against Panama with a goal and an assist. Plays solid up and down the field and has a high energy level. Valuable player.
Gio Reyna – 7.5. Unfortunately the stomach bug ended up limiting his minutes but when he was on the field it was clear he is one of our more talented players. Should have had the match winning assist against Mexico. The only question surrounding Gio is where does he play for us?
Ricardo Pepi – 5. Two starts. Zero goals. Although he did have some moments and did press well he failed to score in his two starts…again. He needs to get back to starting in the Bundesliga and find the scoring mojo.
Jesus Ferriera – 6. Scored in his one start but also missed a couple he should have finished. Seems like the potential is there but at this point its just that. Potential. He will start most MLS matches for Dallas so he has a full season to polish up his game.
Jordan Pefok – 3. He was there for one reason and one reason only. To translate his goal scoring in the Swiss League to the Nats. He missed a sitter against Mexico. In fact so wide some wondered at first if he was passing it back to Reyna. And his hold up play late when the US was trying to hold off any Mexico attach was dreadful.
Jordan Morris – 5. Two stints as a substitute. Helped defensively to hold off Mexico and high energy against Panama. Don’t think he’s all the way back from is knee injury but he’s close.
Gregg Berhalter – 8. Three matches the team was setup to win. Great lineups and tactics. They clearly should have beaten Mexico, did crush Panama, and outplayed CR except for goal keeping. The one question is why did Steffen start that last match? Perhaps Horvath was affected by the stomach bug?
Referees – I can’t give them a composite rating. Have to do this one match by match. Mexico -8. He let them play and had the calls correct but also controlled the play to keep things under control for such a high intensity rivalry. Panama – 4. The only reason he scores that well is that he did correctly award the US 2 penalties. But he consistently called fouls but the problem is he got them backwards. There were 3 fouls in the second half (two on Reyna and one on Long) when the US clearly had position and were fouled by Panama. I have never heard fans boo the ref so loud as in that match. As my son said, “we played the entire game 11v12.” No excuse for such a performance. CR – 4. The overarching role of the ref is to maintain player safety. Allowing them to hack the hell out of Pulisic was unacceptable. Far far to lenient and as is typical in CONCACAF, too slow to bring out the yellow cards. I think Pulisic was fouled 9 or 10 times before the offender got a yellow. I think CONCACAF must instruct their refs to not card players for Persistent Infringement. Shamefull.
So after 14 matches, some excellent, some ok, and some not ok we are off to Qatar. But what happens between now and then? Due to the compressed nature of this qualifying campaign teams are only going to have limited matches to find their best approach to Qatar.
For the US, there are just a handful of opportunities before Qatar to look at the players and finalize the approach,
- Nations League group play in June
- Rumor has us playing a friendly or 2 in June.
- FIFA window in September when we may have 2 friendlies.
That’s not a lot of time to find our stride especially with such a young team. And due to all the injuries we had during qualifying, we still have zero matches when what most predict as our best starting XI have been on the field at the same time
As promised on the BSL forum, here is my too soon list of the 23 man roster for Qatar. Note that things may chance between now and then and FIFA is evaluating expanding the rosters to 26 (which would be great).
Goalkeepers – Matt Turner, Zack Steffen, Ethan Horvath
Wing Backs – Sergino Dest, DeAndre Yedlin, Antonee Robinson, Reggie Cannon/Joe Scally
Center Backs – Walker Zimmerman, Miles Robinson, Chris Richards, John Brooks/Aaron Long
Defensive Midfield – Tyler Adams and Kellyn Acosta
Attacking Midfield – Weston McKennie, Yunas Musah, Luca de la Torre
Wings – Gio Reyna, Tim Weah, Christian Pulisic, Brenden Aaronson
Center Forwards – Jesus Ferreira, Josh Sargent (can also play wing), Ricardo Pepi
Options to consider:
- Paul Arriola if roster expands to 26 or you decide to only take 7 defenders, or 2 strikers.
- Gio Reyna in the midfield.
- Tim Weah at Center Forward.
- Gianluca Busio if roster expands or in place of de la Torre
If I whip my crystal ball out of the closet here’s my preferred lineup come November:
I would also like to see them try a midfield of Adams, Reyna, and McKennie. This would allow Pulisic and Weah to stay on the wings and might be our best attacking lineup IF one of our center forwards pulls their head out and actually starts finishing. In any event we have a lot of depth on this team. Now lets just hope they can all get healthy and stay that way for Qatar. November can’t get here soon enough!
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.