After a month away from, the Champions League Quarter-Finals kick off tomorrow with the first legs. Good thing too as serious soccer fans are in need of a fix. With World Cup 2022 qualifying having rapped up last week (well except for a couple of play in matches) all fans have left to watch are the domestic leagues. And dang it that’s just not enough soccer!!! As a quick note, due to the attack of Russian forces in the Ukraine the final slated for May 28th has been moved from St. Petersburg, Russia to St. Denis, France. A good move by UEFA.
With that lets a look at the four matchups and what we can expect to see.
Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid
Man C sits atop the EPL having gone 3-1-1 in their last 5 matches outscoring their opponents 9-4 over that span. What once looked to be an insurmountable lead has dwindled to a mere single point but that has more to do with the insane run Liverpool has gone on (5-0-0 outscoring their opponents 13-0). Man C advanced with a 5-0 aggregate over Sporting Lisbon and will continue to play attacking soccer. Hosting the first leg in front of 55,000 fans at their home venue, Etihad Stadium will have them juiced up and looking to run out a big win.
Atletico sits in third in the Serie A and have also been looking strong coming in having won 5 straight outscoring opponents 11-5. They play a vastly different style than Man C. They don’t look for a lot of deep possession instead focusing on maintaining their defensive shape. But when they do find themselves with the ball they attack quickly and are very good in the final third. Don’t look for that to change much in the first leg. They will be totally happy if they can earn a draw. What they must avoid is a multi goal loss. They can score goals with anybody. The problem is that they have also allowed more goals than any other team in the top 8 in their league. That doesn’t bode well for keeping a machine like Man C in check.
Prediction – Man City just has too much firepower. In a match of two great managers (Pep Guardiola – Liverpool and Diego Simeone – Atletico) one has to lose. Expect Man C to advance.
Benfica vs Liverpool
The cat was sort of let out of the bag in the above discussion on Man C. No team in the soccer world right now is playing with their hair on fire as Liverpool is. Manager, Juregen Klopp, has the crushing it. You have to go clear back to December 28 to find a Liverpool loss in the EPL. Since that time they have gone 10-1-0 in league play. Simply put nobody wants anything to do with the Reds right now. And since Mo Salah (Egypt) is missing out on the WC he is going to be a man on a mission the rest of the way in UCL.
Benfica sits in third in the Portuguese League and come in on a 3-1-1 league run but they have only outscored their opponents 7-6. Liverpool leads the EPL in scoring averaging over 2.5 goals/match. Realistically, Benfica has to push forward all they can to secure a win at home. If they go on the road to Anfield behind (and probably even with a draw) they are in deep trouble.
Prediction – Liverpool advances and don’t expect it to be to close in the end.
Bayern Munich vs Villareal
Bayern comes in atop the Bundesliga. So what else is new. And they are leading the league with 85 goals in 28 matches. So what else is new. And they are leading the league in fewest goals allowed with 29. So what else is new. Coming in on a 3-2-0 run outscoring their opponents 11-3. And they get the first leg at home. Robert Lewandowski has 12 goals already in UCL this season. Nobody seems to be able to stop this guy when its a big time match.
Villareal unfortunately hasn’t been playing that well. They sit down in 7th in La Liga and have gone a not good 2-0-3 in their last 5 league matches. The good news for Villareal fans is that they do have one of the better defenses in the La Liga. The bad news? They are going to need that defense and then some to slow down the perennial German champions.
Prediction – Bayern has too much horsepower for the Spanish side.
Real Madrid vs Chelsea
To me this is the most interesting matchup of the quarter-finals. Both teams come in having gone 4-0-1 in their last 5 respective league matches. Both sides have played 30 matches thus far in their league schedule. Real has scored 3 more goals than Chelsea. But the Blues have allowed 3 fewer goal than Real. While Real sits atop the La Liga and Chelsea is down in 3rd in the EPL both are well on track to qualify for next years UCL. The key here is likely to be Karim Benzema for Real who already has 8 goals this season in UCL. Fully expect this tie to a coin flip and both matches to be down to the final minute. Wouldn’t surprise me at all that they have to go to extra time after the 90 minutes at Chelsea. These two teams are just very close. In the end it might well come down to Chelsea midfielder, N’Golo Kante. He has to deny Benzema getting the ball in dangerous positions.
Prediction – Given the disaster that Chelsea had at home on Saturday losing 4-1 to Brentford the smart pick would be to go with Real. The counter argument being that Chelsea just had their one off disaster and are ready to go on a roll. I will go with Chelsea. I think they have a bit more depth and well…..just because I feel like it.
The first leg matches will be played tomorrow and Wednesday with the return legs next Tuesday and Wednesday and they all well be aired on Paramount+.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.