On Sunday night, the Orioles made another move for the future.
They traded Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott to the Miami Marlins for two prospects, as well as a player to be named later and a 2022 draft pick that is currently #67 overall.
This trade is hardly an egregious move and it’s certainly not the end of the world. However, it’s still frustrating to see the Opening Day roster get weaker as we prepare for the fourth season of rebuilding in the Mike Elias era.
Sulser was the team’s best reliever last year, leading the team in both ERA and FIP. His WHIP was also third on the team, trailing only Tyler Wells and John Means. According to Baseball Savant, he was in the 80th percentile for K% and the 79th percentile for whiff rate, further demonstrating that he had a very strong 2021. The biggest issue for Sulser as an Oriole was not his performance, but his age. Sulser is currently 32, which isn’t exactly the ideal age for a reliever on a rebuilding team.
Meanwhile, Scott’s pitching was certainly more of a mixed bag. He spent 2021 further demonstrating that he had elite stuff but absolutely dreadful control, a combination that was frustrating to watch. He was in the 98th percentile for whiff rate while being in the second percentile for walk rate. He had swing-and-miss stuff, but the problem was the batters simply weren’t swinging at his pitches often enough to make him a good pitcher.
Scott was probably never going to figure out his control in Baltimore, but it’s still easy to see how someone like him would be an appealing trade chip. Relievers with elite stuff but dreadful control are always going to be someone that another team thinks they can fix.
A 32-year-old reliever and a reliever with excellent stuff and horrible control are not going to bring back a top 100 prospect, but that’s not the issue. Instead, it’s getting a return with zero pieces that’ll seem like they’ll improve the 2022 roster at the MLB level.
Antonio Velez, a 25-year-old left-handed starting pitcher, currently has just 18 career innings at AA. Meanwhile, Kevin Guerrero is a teenager and the #67 overall pick won’t be able to help the 2022 Orioles because they’re still in high school or college.
The return could certainly help the Orioles in the future, but only Velez has any chance of appearing at Camden Yards this year. Moving Scott and Sulser should’ve produced at least one starting pitcher who is ready for the MLB level right now.
I won’t pretend to be an expert on the Marlins farm system but after viewing their top 30 prospects on MLB.com, someone like the 27-year-old Cody Poteet is who I would’ve wanted for Scott and Sulser. Poteet is ranked #24 in their system and was given seven MLB starts across May and June. His 4.99 ERA and 5.62 FIP from those seven starts aren’t exactly impressive, but the Orioles can’t be picky about starting pitching at this point.
A starting pitcher like Poteet could’ve instantly given the Orioles more starting pitching depth at the major league level with a chance to make a positive impact on the 2022 roster. However, that is not the case for the return of Velez, Guerrero and a draft pick.
Regardless of how I feel about this trade, the important thing is that this deal doesn’t exist in a vacuum.
The Orioles have been rebuilding since July 2018 and at a certain point, everyone is entitled to feel frustrated and wonder when the Orioles are going to start moving in the other direction. Trading Scott and Sulser isn’t a big deal by itself, but the cumulative effect of doing this with plenty of players since 2018 can get tiring.
The Manny Machado trade is currently a failure and the rest of the 2018 firesale hasn’t exactly produced anyone you’re confident will be part of the next team to make the playoffs.
Dillon Tate was acquired for Zack Britton and he’s shown some promising signs to be a solid reliever but is hardly a guarantee to stay in the Orioles bullpen for the next few years without improving.
Meanwhile, sending Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves produced Bruce Zimmermann, but the local product needs more than 71.1 MLB innings with a 5.30 ERA to establish himself as someone who should remain a starting pitcher on this team going forward.
Of course, the 2018 firesale was orchestrated by Dan Duquette, but it’s also worth noting that none of the major prospects acquired in trades during the Elias era have reached the majors yet.
I’d expect Kyle Bradish, Terrin Vavra and Kevin Smith to all make their debuts this year, but that still means we went through three seasons without seeing any notable prospects from an Elias deal reach the majors. You can agree with the decision-making and still get frustrated waiting for those deals to produce results on the big league team.
This deal also doesn’t exist in a vacuum when looking at the bigger picture of what the Orioles did this offseason compared to other teams who’ve recently struggled.
The Detroit Tigers were worse than the Orioles in 2019, but that didn’t stop them from being aggressive in free agency by landing Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. Elsewhere, the Texas Rangers were 60-102 last year and decided to improve their roster by getting Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray.
Two teams in a similar position to the Orioles made it clear they were flipping the switch, but the Orioles haven’t.
Their biggest offseason additions have been Jordan Lyles, Rougned Odor and Robinson Chirinos. Even the biggest supporters of the Elias regime should be able to admit that’s an underwhelming offseason for a team that will be calling up two of the top ten prospects in baseball this season.
If the Orioles signed Carlos Correa and a starting pitcher better than Jordan Lyles, I don’t think anyone would’ve cared about trading two relievers. However, this offseason has made it clear they’re still not trying to win yet, so it’s easy to get frustrated about smaller things like this.
At some point in the future, the Orioles will start making trades to improve their major league roster by giving away prospects from their #1 farm system. And yet, until that happens, it’s reasonable to feel frustrated that we’re still doing this 44 months after Machado played his final game as an Oriole.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).