As we inch ever closer to Opening Day, I’m taking a look at what the Orioles might be able to expect from the members of their (likely) starting rotation this year. So far, I’ve taken a look at John Means and Jordan Lyles, and now we’re going to take a look at Bruce Zimmermann.
Last year was really Zimmermann’s first sizeable taste of the majors. He came up for two games (one start) in 2020, but that was just seven innings. Otherwise, Zimmermann hasn’t had much major league experience.
But last year, Zimmermann received 13 starts and pitched a total of 64.1 innings to a 5.04 ERA with a 5.38 FIP, 4.59 SIERA, 1.51 WHIP, and a 19.6% strikeout rate. Honestly, not great numbers at all, but it was his first time seeing significant major league action, so what can we expect from him this year?
What worked for Bruce Zimmermann last year
If there’s one thing Zimmerman is good at, it’s throwing breaking balls, because last year, his slider and curveball were his two best pitches.
First, let’s take a look at his slider:
It’s a pitch that works pretty well as a swing-and-miss pitch, posting a 33% chase rate and 15.8% swinging-strike rate last year, both of which are really solid numbers. On top of that, Zimmermann controlled the pitch pretty well, locating it in the strike zone 52.2% of the time. For some context, if a pitcher is locating a breaking ball or off-speed pitch in the zone at least 40% of the time while still getting swings and misses, that’s pretty impressive.
And even if hitters did make contact, they didn’t do much with the pitch, posting a .225/.262/.250 line against the pitch with a .230 wOBA. Nothing but whiffs and weak contact, that’s what you love to see.
Next up, his curveball:
A similar story here for Zimmermann—the curveball worked well as a swing-and-miss pitch, posting a 34.6% chase rate and 15.9% swinging-strike rate. And once again, he located it well, pitching it in the strike zone 46.2% of the time.
It was extremely close to what my good friend Nick Pollack over at Pitcher List calls a “Money Pitch,” which is a pitch that has at least a 35% chase rate, 15% swinging-strike rate, and 40% zone rate. Those types of pitches aren’t extremely common—last year just 15 pitches thrown by 14 pitchers qualified as a money pitch, and Zimmermann was that close to having two money pitches.
And similar to the slider, Zimmermann’s curveball induced a lot of weak contact, as opposing hitters had a .139/.205/.167 line against the pitch with a .175 wOBA, all fantastic numbers.
What didn’t work for Bruce Zimmermann last year
If you’re reading this maybe you’re thinking “well what’s the problem then? Get Zimmermann out there, let the Bruce loose!” and I get it. When you think about what you want in a starting pitcher, typically you think of three things—a solid fastball of some kind as a foundation, a wipeout breaking ball or off-speed pitch, and a decent-to-good backup strikeout pitch.
Zimmermann has two breaking balls that posted top-notch numbers last year, so what’s the issue? Well, of the four pitch types Zimmermann threw last year, his slider and curveball were his two least-commonly-thrown. And that’s where the problem lies.
Let’s take a look at his fastball:
It’s not a particularly fast pitch, coming in around 92 MPH on average, but it’s got decent spin at 2,325 RPM, landing it in the 68th percentile in the majors.
But the pitch got absolutely tattooed last year. Hitters had a .392/.464/.711 line against it, and if you don’t feel like doing math (and I don’t blame you), that’s a .320 ISO against, which is awful.
And then there was his changeup:
The changeup did a decent job of getting some swings and misses, with a 32.8% chase rate and a 14% swinging-strike rate, but it got hit pretty hard too, as hitters had a .271/.312/.494 line against it (that’s a .254 ISO, also terrible).
Those were his two most-thrown pitches last year, so it’s kind of no wonder his ERA was so inflated, given he was throwing those pitches more than anything last year.
What to expect from Bruce Zimmermann in 2022
Oddly enough, I kind of think Bruce Zimmermann can be better than he’s shown. Like I said, when you think of a good pitcher, you think of a guy with a good fastball foundation and at least one really good strikeout pitch.
Zimmermann has the strikeout pitches down, both his slider and curveball are very good at getting chases and swings and misses. But that fastball, it needs some help.
Part of it is a lack of control. Zimmermann only located his fastball in the strike zone 47.9% of the time last year, and if your fastball is in the zone less than 50% of the time, that’s not great. And if Zimmermann’s having trouble keeping the fastball in the zone, you can bet he’s probably also having trouble commanding it within the zone, serving up plenty of meatballs to be crushed.
I think the new dimensions at Camden Yards will help limit some of those harder-hit balls some, but that fastball is definitely a problem. Still, the potential that comes with adjusting that pitch and increasing the usage of his slider and curveball is pretty interesting, there’s definitely something to like about Zimmermann and I’d love to see if he can put some things together this year.
Ben Palmer has lived in Maryland his whole life and currently spends his days working as a health care journalist. He also previously wrote for and was a site expert for the FanSided blog The Baltimore Wire and currently works as managing editor at Pitcher List where he writes about fantasy baseball.