Some Thoughts As Opening Day Arrives

The Baltimore Orioles begin their 2022 season today, with Game 1 of the 162 game campaign in Tampa Bay.

The ’18 Orioles lost 115 games.
The ’19 Orioles lost 108 games. (The first year of the Elias Front Office.)
Obviously ’20 was abridged.
The ’21 Orioles lost 110 games.

With the first pitch of this year hours away, the various Power Rankings I’ve seen from the National sites have the Orioles 27th to 30th.

The Orioles are going to play 76 games against their American League East foes, and many prognosticators are anticipating the Division placing 3 or even 4 teams into the Playoffs.

So, as an Oriole fan, why am I smiling this morning?

Sure I’m smiling because baseball is back. I love the game, and I love the everyday aspect of a season.

But beyond that, I’m excited for the year to begin, and optimistic that when this year ends October 5th – it will be clear the Orioles have turned a corner as an organization and are on the verge of better days.

The O’s might not win 65 games this year, but they should absolutely end this season with more pieces of the next quality Oriole team in-place, and with additional pieces close to ascending.

Last October I was beat down from a really rotten Orioles season, and I wrote:

It’s time to get to work on improving the Orioles, and having a legitimate Major League roster when Pitchers & Catchers arrive in Sarasota next February. And if the Orioles aren’t committed to having a far superior product on the field to begin ’22, that would be an organizational failure far more meaningful than the 107+ losses here in ’21.

Beginning Monday October 4th, wins and losses matter when evaluating the Elias regime.

The 107+ losses this year is unacceptable.

If the payroll is $54M, $75M, or $140M – you’ve got options available to you to improve the roster. Whatever the salary is, it’s now on Elias’ shoulders to figure out how to make it work.

When Spring Training begins next February, the Orioles need to have a legitimate Major League roster.

Improve the team!

How do I reconcile those thoughts with what I’m thinking and feeling this morning?

I can’t.

I can complain about their inaction, but I can’t make them change. The Orioles came out early in the off-season and made clear they weren’t doing anything of significance.

I’m still puzzled as to why the O’s wouldn’t bother to look at Eduardo Rodriguez and Alex Wood.  I’m still annoyed that guys like Michael Pineda, and Zach Davies weren’t signed either (not because I think either are ‘good’, but because I wanted to see 2-3 versions of Lyles).

If you think it’s pathetic they didn’t do more to help this ’22 team, I’m not going to say you are wrong. I can’t. I think at this point in the build, there were 1 year moves they should have pursued, and could have been making to put a better product on the field which wouldn’t have hurt their overall plan. 

And there were larger pieces that were obtainable as well. If you want to be competing in ’23, and legitimately contending in ’24 – there was no harm in trying to grab some of the needed pieces now.

It’s also quite possible we get to October this year and I have some similar thoughts as I did last October. And I’ll say now, if we get to the end of ’22, and they aren’t doing anything to help the ’23 product, and position themselves to really make a run in ’24…  that would be incredibly sad. 

In my opinion the Orioles are looking at trying to contend in ’24. That places them a solid year behind where I thought they would and should be earlier in the Elias tenure.

There is some frustration there, but I don’t feel a need to absolve the Orioles – because I don’t feel like they’ve sinned. Ultimately, I do believe in their plan, and what they’re building.

And really the overall point for me is, I believe in the people in charge.  Since Gillick, I’ve never been this confident in the Orioles Front Office.

The flip side of that is you still have to make organizational progress here in ’22, and if you (the Orioles Front Office and Ownership) didn’t want to make the necessary additions to bolster this ’22 roster, that’s fine – but you have to live with the results.

Wins and losses over ’19-’21 effectively meant nothing, but beginning with this ’22 season, I think every win and loss does matter and the Elias regime should be held accountable. It’s time to improve.

Every Oriole fan gets to decide what they will tolerate. Some Orioles fans are now just apathetic at best, and others might never come back.

I’m excited about the emergence of the waive of kids that will be arriving here in ’22, and joining what you are trying to build. If the development of some guys stall, or we see no improvement at the ML level (or belief that additional pieces of the next quality roster are being assembled) that’s going to lead to rightful outrage.

A very important 6 month period for the organization begins today, and maybe it’s appropriate the ’22 season starts in Tampa Bay. Last year the Orioles were an almost inconceivable 1-18 vs. the Rays. Tampa Bay, Toronto, NY, and Boston might all be 90 win teams this year; but if the O’s want to show they are trending upwards, an uptick in performance vs. the Division would be a start.

Quick Hits:

1) A 28 man roster (and 14 pitchers) for April is a gift for the Orioles.

2) The Orioles are the perfect team to really lean in to tandem starters. On the Opening Day roster, you’ve got Akin, Baker, Baumann, Kremer, Lopez, T. Wells, and Zimmermann. On the 40 man, you’ve also got Bradish, Lowther, Smith, and A. Wells. I think Bradish and Baumann have a chance to stick as starters, but that entire 11 man group has questions as legitimate starting options. But they’ve also all had a fair amount of MiL success. Just because they might not hold up over 30 starts and 150 innings, doesn’t mean they can’t help a roster. I think in a tandem capacity, this group has a chance to help. If the Orioles are going to show improvement at the ML level this year, this group is going to have provide some production.

3) Even though Westburg is beginning at AA, I’ll stick with the opinion that he’ll be up by July 1st.  (150 ab’s at Bowie, 150 at Norfolk.)

Rutschman up before May 1st. 

Rodriguez up before June.  Figure Bradish has started a game before June as well. 

Santander produces or Stowers replaces him June 1st. 

Vavra at AAA. He was limited to 178 ab’s last year.  If he puts up a solid 250-300 ab’s, he probably finds himself in the Majors soon too.

Despite the lack of innings.. I think the O’s are being pretty clear that Hall is going to get to the Majors this year if he stays on the mound. Really interested to see how they handle him. 

Maybe my predictions of ascendance here will prove to be more aggressive than the O’s organization’s actual decisions; but I guess my larger point is that more talent is joining the roster. Soon.

4) What does Mullins do for an encore? Is his arm a liability with the reconfigured OF? I anticipate with the additional space to run his outstanding range will be further appreciated.

5) Austin Hays remains my favorite current Oriole. If Hays is to make the leap to being a 4 win (by fWAR) player in ’22 – he has to stay on the field, hit RHP better, and his obp (which is baa driven) has to tick up. If he’s either stagnant or regresses at all, he’ll be in danger of losing playing time to someone like Kyle Stowers. Or at the minimum, you won’t be looking at him as a piece going forward. Is he a late bloomer like Brady Anderson, or he is a guy with all the tools, that can’t stay healthy and put it together like Nolan Reimold? ’22 is going to largely tell the story here.

6) Mountcastle is entering his second full season in the Majors. Mountcastle struggled badly last April, was mediocre in July, and slumped in September. In June and August he was a force, with huge production in those months. Overall, he put up 33 bombs, and posted a .796 OPS in a very solid initial campaign. He costs little, and there is more there. The O’s should be extremely happy with what they have here. Let’s see if the average goes up in Year 2.

7) We’ve mentioned some of the other prospects on the come. It will be fun checking the Minor League box scores daily, and looking to see what Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad (hopefully soon), Jean Pinto, Drew Rom, Joey Ortiz, Carter Baumler, etc are doing.

8) I’m all about the changes to the outfield dimensions at Oriole Park. It will make for a more entertaining watch, especially if you dislike the 3 true outcome era. More balls in play.  More room for the OFs to run.  More relays. More doubles and triples. And I think trying to get the park to a neutral environment is a good goal.