Down on the Farm – April 19, 2022

Welcome to ‘Down on the Farm’, a minor league spin-off of my weekly article ‘3 Up, 3 Down’. Every week I will highlight the three hottest and three coldest players in the Orioles minor league system from the previous week. Hopefully this will help in keeping track of the progress of the prospects playing for the Norfolk Tide, Bowie Baysox, Aberdeen Ironbirds, and Delmarva Shorebirds. Also be sure to check out my threads on the message board that are tracking both pitching and hitting statistics for the Orioles top prospects.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

On Fire

Grayson Rodriguez – 1-0, 2.00 ERA, 9 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 15 K, 0.56 WHIP (AAA Norfolk)

While its not surprising to see the best pitching prospect in baseball show up on this list at the first opportunity he gets, it is encouraging for the prospects of seeing him make his major league debut sooner rather than later. Another couple of starts like this and the voices calling for his promotion will start to get loud especially considering the options that the Orioles are running out there at the major league level and staff ace John Means’ elbow injury. Through his first two starts at the AAA level he has been more dominant than last year when he tore through A+ and AA. His 2.00 ERA is buoyed by a 2.02 FIP and 1.51 xFIP. He has struck out 48.4% of the batters he’s faced and when batters have made contact it has been on the ground more than 50% of the time. The only runs he has allowed came on a solo homerun and a sacrifice fly after a balk moved the runner over to third. He has only walked one batter and despite being around the zone more often his stuff is good enough to hold batters to a .133 batting average. His teammate Kyle Bradish was another option for this spot and seems even closer to making his major league debut after throwing nine innings himself to a 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. The Orioles pitching is going to at least get more exciting to watch everyday over the next month or so even if the results aren’t there immediately.

Hudson Haskin – .563/.588/1.313 (1.901), 4 R, 3 doubles, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 16 AB (AA Bowie)

It was a great first two weeks for MLB Pipeline’s best farm system in baseball which means there were some tough cuts on which players to highlight. Just to rattle off some names before getting to Haskin’s scorching start: Kyle Stowers, Jahmai Jones, Jordan Westburg, Donta’ Williams, John Rhodes, TT Bowens, Isaac Bellony, Noelberth Romero. And that’s just at the plate. But Haskin beat them all for me despite missing most of the second week of the season after he was hit by a pitch near his shoulder area and then thrown out trying to steal second. It doesn’t hurt that I was there in person at Prince George’s Stadium to see him hit three homeruns in the same game. This is a guy who has always had plus raw power but hadn’t been able to translate it into games as much. For one game at least, he did. After speaking with Rhodes for a piece I wrote during spring training I’ve never been more optimistic about the Orioles player development so I tend to believe they have worked with him on driving the ball more and its paying off. He also had three doubles in the AA opener. He hasn’t walked yet but when you’re swinging the bat as well as he has to start that isn’t as much of a priority. He was originally listed in the Baysox lineup on Sunday before a late switch so hopefully that means he’ll be back out there Tuesday night following the Monday off day.

Darell Hernaiz – .375/.412/.625 (1.037), 7 R, 2 doubles, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 SB, 32 AB (A Delmarva)

Hernaiz played most of last year as a 19 year old in low A Delmarva and put up respectable numbers considering his age versus the competition (also something to keep in mind when looking at this year’s Shorebirds statistics as most of their players are 18-20 years old). He batted .277 with a .690 OPS and 92 wRC+. When I projected the minor league opening day rosters I assumed that would be enough to earn him a promotion to A+ Aberdeen alongside fellow 20 year old Coby Mayo. Unfortunately for him the depth that Mike Elias and company have accrued over the past few seasons made it so that even if he was promoted there wouldn’t be enough at bats to go around to keep him in the lineup everyday. Its not the worst thing in the world for him to go back down to the same level so he can see the improvements he has presumably made over the offseason against the same level of competition. Once space opens up for him in Aberdeen, whether its Cesar Prieto, Connor Norby, and/or Coby Mayo moving up, he should easily be able to fill their spot. Especially considering he is killing the ball so far. He already has two homeruns and two doubles when he only hit six and 12 of those respectively in 2021. He still hasn’t incorporated the walk rate that he showed in the GCL in 2019 back into his game but his strikeout rate is down to a fantastic 11.8%. He still doesn’t turn 21 until August so even if he spent all of 2022 in Delmarva he would be in a good spot but he is doing exactly what he should be to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Ice Cold

Isaac De Leon – .042/.207/.083 (.290), 1 R, 1 double, 1 RBI, 24 AB (A Delmarva)

I was really excited to see De Leon start the season in full season ball at 20 years old after hearing so many good things about him during his season in the FCL last summer. Acquired from the Miami Marlins in the Richard Bleier trade at the start of the 2020 season, he batted .283 with a .761 OPS as a 19 year old down in Florida but most importantly as a shortstop was reported to have an excellent glove. His defense isn’t struggling, he still looks smooth out there, but the bat has been ice cold to start the season. He is striking out too much (34.5%) and his .071 batting average on balls in play certainly isn’t helping matters. The good thing is he is walking at a very solid rate of 17.2% so if he is able to get his batting average up to a respectable level the on base percentage should look good. He doesn’t have much power to speak of at this point in his development but he should be able to hit some doubles at the very least. He is only three months younger than the aforementioned Darell Hernaiz but I think the organization would be happy to see him come close to the elder’s 2021 line for Delmarva.

Patrick Dorrian – .139/.244/.250 (.494), 3 R, 1 double, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 5 BB, 17 K, 36 AB (AAA Norfolk)

Dorrian surprised a lot of people with a breakout season of sorts for AA Bowie in 2021. He hit for more power than he had ever shown in his career, especially to the pull side, blasting 22 homeruns, 21 doubles, and two triples. He also had one of the best walk rates in the organization at 14.6% on his way to posting a 128 wRC+. Even as a guy who is a little bit older (he turns 26 in June) than your typical prospect in AA it was easy to see how he could help the major league team at some point as a guy who can play third base and first base at a decent level. He got a cup of coffee with AAA Norfolk to end last season and struggled but it was only over 16 plate appearances after a long season. He started back there to start this year and has continued to struggle but again its only a short sample size and he is at least maintaining a good walk rate at 12.2%. He is striking out too much (41.5%) as he gets a steady dose of offspeed stuff but we saw with Rylan Bannon last year how adjusting to AAA pitching can take a good bit of time. Bannon has started this season strong after a brutal 2021 and Dorrian has similar tools to work with. Barring unexpected circumstances he isn’t likely to ever be an everyday starter for the Orioles but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t carve out a role of some sort if everything comes into place.

Blaine Knight – 0-0, 16.20 ERA, 3.1 IP, 8 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 3 K, 4.20 WHIP (AAA Norfolk)

Knight was looking like a potential comeback player of the year for the Orioles organization in the beginning of 2021 after an absolutely devastating 2019 to his prospect status. He cruised through Delmarva as a polished college starter with a 0.68 ERA over 26.2 innings but then looked terrible after a promotion to then A+ Frederick. He had a 6.13 ERA over 83.2 innings, was walking a ton of batters and barely striking anyone out. After the 2020 season was wiped out by COVID he returned to high A, this time in Aberdeen, and rebounded nicely with a 2.41 ERA over four starts. He started off strong after a promotion to AA Bowie but ended up with a 5.04 ERA there and then a 8.49 ERA with AAA Norfolk to close out the season. He has a mid-90’s fastball and a good slider when he can locate it so it seemed like he could find success with a move to the bullpen but the early returns aren’t great. He has walked more than a batter per inning and batters are hitting .471 against him. It is a ridiculously high .538 BABIP so he may be incredibly unlucky so far when the ball is put in play against him but the walks have nothing to do with luck. He is in a position where he is going to need to perform or be at risk of being passed up by the string of pitching prospects making their way up from AA Bowie.