2022 NBA Conference Finals: Why Jayson Tatum, Celtics Are Frontrunners for the Title

The stage is officially set. After two rounds of hard fought series, we have officially reached the Conference Finals where only two teams will have the luxury of representing their conference with the Larry O’Brien trophy on the line.

But following Sunday’s anti-climactic dismantling of both the Milwaukee Bucks and the Phoenix Suns, many NBA fans are left asking themselves: Which of the four remaining teams should be favored to win the championship?

A valid question considering that as of just last Friday, OddShark.com gave Phoenix the second best odds at +325 and the defending champions had the fourth best odds at +450. Now of the four teams left, each team has a compelling argument for why they should be viewed as the best of the rest.

For the Miami Heat, this is their second Eastern Conference Finals visit in the last three seasons and they just so happen to be facing off against the same team they beat during the 2020 Bubble Playoffs. They also have a motivated Jimmy Butler surrounded by a handful of role players who have provided unprecedented positive production all season long.

For the Golden State Warriors, they were actually favored at +200 on those same OddShark.com betting odds. They of course are the most experienced of any of the remaining teams both in terms of playoff experience and established championship pedigree.

It also helps that they happen to have the best shooting backcourt in NBA history with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

For the Dallas Mavericks, their claim to fame is that they just took down arguably the most complete team in the league roster wise. They also have one of if not the most talented player remaining in the playoffs in Luka Doncic who is playing with house money after breaking the two-year curse of getting bounced in the first round.

But the team that might be the biggest threat to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy this season is the Boston Celtics.

Jayson Tatum has been on another level this postseason and would deservedly be the NBA Playoffs MVP if the postseason ended today. Also, the vaunted two-way play of the Celtics as a collective has arguably made them the most impressive team to watch of the four remaining.

More on that in a moment.

First in order to prove why Boston is deserving of being labeled as the “favorites,” we have to discuss the reasons why the Heat, Warriors and Mavericks are undeserving or at least less deserving of the title.

Starting with the Miami Heat, their biggest flaw all season has been that they are too reliant on the shot creation ability of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro in the halfcourt.

We just saw how much of a hindrance this can be in the Celtics vs. Bucks series and especially back in the Celtics vs. Nets series (which feels like forever ago).

When your roster is limited with too many one dimensional or “specialist” type players, efficient offense is much harder to come by in seven game series where the game slows down.

This brings us to Kyle Lowry who many including myself argued was one of the biggest free agents signing of the 2021 summer.

Lowry was brought in with the intention of being another shot creating ball handler that could also help in pushing the pace for the Heat. Only thing is, he really hasn’t been that guy this season, even less so during these playoffs as he is still struggling with a hamstring injury.

During this postseason, Lowry was forced to miss Games 4 and 5 of the Atlanta series and also missed Games 5 and 6 of the Philly series. Not to mention he has already been ruled out for Game 1 against the Celtics tonight.

But in terms of Lowry “not being that guy,” let’s give that some context. Lowry this postseason is averaging 8.3 points, 5.3 assists, and 3.7 rebounds per game on 34.5% shooting from the field and 33.3 % from three in five games played. He also has a mere 31 total points in those five games in spite of playing around 29 minutes a night during that stretch.

If that sounds bad to you already, let’s give it some further context by comparing him to his teammate Duncan Robinson.

Robinson has played in eight games this postseason and has 40 total points despite having four games where he did not score. Robinson also eclipsed 20 minutes played in only one of the eight games he has played in.

And for those who argue that Robinson’s numbers are inflated by his 27-point outburst in Game 1 against the Hawks, you are absolutely right. But that 27-point performance is still more impactful than anything Lowry has done this postseason. Especially when considering that two of Miami’s best players in Herro and Bam Adebayo were held to single digits in that game.

In short, Lowry has been less effective than Robinson who became unplayable in the Philly series and probably will be in a similar predicament against the Celtics.

Making the Lowry situation a lose-lose because playing him could be a hindrance if he continues to struggle the way he has, but not playing him takes an impactful presence off the floor in halfcourt situations where Lowry helps Miami the most.

For Miami, they step into a situation where this will easily be the most physical team they have faced this postseason. How they perform in Game 1 will be very indicative of whether or not they will be able to hang with the wing play of Boston that is coming off wearing down a former two-time MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Then we have the Golden State Warriors. Following the two opening blowout wins in the Denver Nuggets series, the Warriors have kind of left open the door for doubt with a few “shaking my head” worthy situations.

They had a chance to sweep the Nuggets in Game 4 and instead gave them life to the point that Denver also nearly stole Game 5.

They were blown out by 41 points to a Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies team in a potential close out Game 5.

There is also a quiet trend throughout these Playoffs for second year standout Jordan Poole that could speak volumes soon as the stakes get higher.

In Games 1 through 3 aka the “feeling out” portion of any series, Poole was able to blitz the Nuggets and Grizzlies in route to some stellar performances in his first ever postseason run.

In Games 1 through 3 of the Denver series, Poole averaged nearly 29 points including 30 points in his Playoff debut. Poole had a similar start to the Memphis series, averaging 26 points in Games 1 through 3 including a postseason career-high 31 points in Game 1.

But in Games 4 through 6 when the feeling out period has passed, Poole’s play dramatically plummets.

In Games 4 and 5 vs. Denver, Poole averaged 9.5 points while shooting 3-of-10 from the field in both games and shot a combined 2-of-9 from three. Then in Games 4 through 6 against Memphis, he averaged about 9.7 points and in Game 5 he had more turnovers (4) than points (3).

This regression came against two teams that had been lackluster at best on defense in comparison to Miami, Boston, or Dallas. Poole has already and will continue to play a pivotal role in the Warriors push for another title, but if this trend of tiring out continues, he could become a liability in moments where he is needed most.

Crazy thing is all of this does not even consider the absence of three of their better perimeter defenders in Gary Payton II, Andre Iguodala, and Otto Porter Jr. All guys the Warriors will desperately miss in any series where the likes of Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum or Jimmy Butler are on the opposing side.

Next up are the Dallas Mavericks who compared to the previous two teams, actually have the most upside of the group.

They are the most battle tested. Through the first two rounds, they have proven that their ranking as a top-5 scoring defense in the regular season was not a fluke. Plus, they have no real injury concerns at the moment.

The only real question is whether or not the Mavericks’ supporting cast can continue to hold their end of the bargain alongside their superstar guard.

We have seen flashes from Jalen Brunson. They got a breakout shooting night from Dorian Finney-Smith. We even got a rare Spencer Dinwiddie sighting in Game 7 against the Suns as he finished with 30 points after having 31 total points in the previous four games of the series. But can they put it together for two more series? That is a glaring question and only time will tell.

Between the consistency questions surrounding the Dallas bench and the fatigue factor of Doncic that gets harped on throughout every series, these are the Mavericks biggest concerns.

That leaves the Boston Celtics.

The same Celtics who were one offensive putback away from going to overtime in Game 2 and a Jrue Holiday block away from stealing Game 5. They surely are kicking themselves for even letting the series against the Bucks get to seven games considering the circumstances, but they clearly rectified that in their dominating finish to Game 7.  

Heading into the Conference Finals round, Boston is the most complete team remaining in the Playoffs.

They have arguably the best player performance wise in Jayson Tatum who is averaging 28.3 points, 6.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds while shooting 43.8% from the field and 38.6% from three this postseason.

Similar to the Mavericks, Boston has no real injury concerns at the moment opposed to maybe Marcus Smart’s sprained foot and Robert Williams who is healthy but being brought back slowly.

They also have no questions regarding the offensive and defensive capabilities of their supporting cast. They have an eight to nine man rotation where all five guys on the court are threats to score and be competitive if not elite on the defensive end.

Then for the cherry on top, narratives should not play too much into picking who you think is the best, but they have a compelling story as well.

The team that has been on a dominating run that started back in January.

The team many doubted entering the season with questions around splitting up Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

The team many worried would take a hit with moving an inexperienced Brad Stevens up to the front office and hiring a first time head coach in Ime Udoka.

Yet here they are knocking on the door of the NBA Finals for the fourth time since the 2015-16 season and doing so with mainly guys drafted and groomed by their organization.

All four of these teams have a real shot to win the championship but if I had to rank them in order of who’s the favorite, my list would be Celtics, Mavericks, Heat and then Golden State.

Nonetheless, this postseason has already been nothing short of parody driven and exciting which sets us up for a great final sprint before reaching the much anticipated 2022 NBA Finals.